Just reading this I realized how "dumb" (for lack of a better word) Fredo was. Johnny was basically a flunky for Roth. He wasn't apart of the NY power structure, to my knowledge. So what ever it was, it would be coming from Roth. Probably a piece of Cuba.... but I think it was just a promise because if they killed Michael, whats Fredo gonna do????
I never understood, siding with someone outside your Family. Because at least, if you're a traitor with another Family member, you on the same team, in theory. But an outsider, doesn't benefit either of you, especially in the Underworld.