This is an interesting thread.

Regarding Michael's "recklessness" in Cuba, and whether Bautista's resignation saved his life, I think we might be selling Michael a little short.

Michael seems to know Roth's exact plan but is still confident that killing Roth will end the threat. Why?

Is it realistic that Michael assumed that word of Roth's death would get to Bautista almost immediately, and that Bautista would not only not want revenge, but would go out of his way - during the party - to urgently get a hold of the assassins and call Michael's killing off? Why would Bautista make that a priority? It hardly seems like Michael to put his life on the line based on such a flimsy turn of events.

My theory is that Michael had an entirely separate plan to assure his escape, regardless of whether Roth and Ola were killed. Maybe he bribed a legion of soldiers to protect him. Maybe he bribed Bautista himself to double-cross Roth. (BTW, Roth seems to be in the dark about how well the rebels are doing, which calls into question how close he and Bautista really were.) We never see what it was, so it's hard to speculate. But that makes much more sense that him staking his life on such a flimsy chain of events.

A lot of the posts here are based on the fact that Michael was alone in Cuba, except for Bussetta. But that is clearly false. He's arranged his own driver to take him to the airport. He's arranged a plane and a pilot who he trusted enough to stand fast even as the country crumbled around them. If Michael could arrange all that, he surely could have arranged a counter-move to the assassination plan.

Bautista's resignation didn't save Michael's life, it just meant he didn't have to activate his plot.