If history has taught us anything, it's that anyone at anytime can be killed by anyone. We've had people like JFK (a president!), RFK, and MLK gunned down by random nutjobs, and they had their bodyguards. Even Joe Colombo was gunned down in a public place, and he had an army of street guys surrounding him. Didn't matter.
Don't forget Oswald was only 24 when he killed Kennedy. People latch on to these wild conspiracy theories about these killings because the conspiracies almost more comforting that someone super powerful was taken down by some shadowy group. We like to think that there's something bigger at play, like CIA or military conspiracy theories. The idea that someone that powerful could be gunned down by some loner d-bag acting alone like Oswald or Comello is almost scarier than the conspiracies... the idea that presidents, mob bosses, and kings are mortal just like the rest of us and can be taken out by anyone else as easy as swatting a fly.
The reason Cali felt safe and didn't need bodyguards is because of how intense the NYPD and the Feds are in keeping a lid on crime and violence in NYC. The Mob had to adjust to the heavy police presence over the past two decades (since Guiliani) and had to put a stop to the killings (or, most of them) in NYC. Nowadays killings are rare in the mob. I mean, Cali had no reason to fear a mob hit because mob hits (at least internal mob hits) don't happen any more. Not to mention how strict the gun laws are these days in NY.
So in response to the heavy police presence, violence is down and mob-diplomacy is up. So why the hell wouldn't Cali open his door unarmed? Makes total sense. And in his mind, who's going to take a shot at him? Someone wants to take him on it's a 100% death sentence, either when they're locked up or on the street. So he thinks anyone who wants to take a shot couldn't be stupid enough to do it because they could never get away clean. But this wasn't a "mob hit" in the traditional sense... this wasn't some rival trying to take power or get revenge. It's just some punk kid with a half-assed plan who had no shot in hell of getting away with the crime... and he's gonna get shanked if he ever leaves protective custody.
You bring good points.
Don't necessarily agree that he'll get shanked in prison. There have got to be plenty of prisons that don't have much of a mob presence. If he does get shanked it'll be because prison staff aren't doing their jobs.
