On the other hand, should Michael have detected in Fredo the potential for betrayal? Also, why was Havana Fredo's "kind of town" if he had never been there before? Did he know it by reputation perhaps? How did he come to so quickly know about the local drinks as he suggested at the New Year's eve party?
Good questions, Oli. It didn't take genius for Michael figure that Fredo was too weak and stupid to run the family in his absence. But he didn't figure that his constant sidelining of Fredo into "Mickey Mouse" jobs (and his put down of Fredo in Vegas after the Moe Green meeting) would cause enough resentment to turn his brother into a traitor. Fredo might have come to Havana on his own and known how to show people a good time. But, I thought it was suspicious that Johnny Ola said, "We never met." If Ola remembered Hagen from the old days, he surely must have met Fredo as well. Why didn't Michael pick up on that? For that matter, Sonny should have picked up that Carlo would be filled with enough hatred of him after his public beating and humiliation that he'd turn traitor and set Sonny up. As Vito said in GF: "Women and children can afford to be careless. But not men."
Again it is important how you characterize a traitor. In my eyes a traitor is someone who consciously sides with another family to get your boss/superior killed. For Example Carlo was a traitor because he wanted Sonny dead after the beating AND he thought with sonny gone he would finally move up in the family. Tessio even though he was loyal to Vito and did like Mike he set up Mike to be killed to start his own family. Fredo on the other hand was different. Its clear he was misled and used. Was he weak,stupid,resentful? Absolutely. But it clear his goal in his mind was that he was doing something on his own but helping the family.....he didnt want mike harmed, he didnt even want him out as boss.
