The only reason I don't believe that theory is because of how animated Paulie was outside of Satriales at the end when Tony made him captain. If Paulie had something in the works with Butchie, he probably would have been more wooden in that conversation and played along. I don't see him as being that good of an actor. He talks about his superstitions, etc. I think he would have kept the conversation short by sweet. Less talking the better. I think "Members Only Guy" was someone connected to Phil, who acted outside of the Lupertazzi sphere. He could have been connected to anyone Tony pissed off in the past. Might have had nothing to do with the recent war, or he could have been taking advantage of the timing. Butchie wouldn't have killed Tony in public like that because he wouldn't have to. He could have gotten him anywhere. They get Phil in front of his family because he was in hiding. They had to hit him as soon as they had the chance.