I think Paulie was still playing footsie with New York right to the end. It's very subtle, but he sneaks Butchie a knowing glance at the sit down in George's warehouse right as Tony, Carmine, and Butchie come to the truce agreement. I have always also thought that Paulie knew that Tony wasn't long for the world at that point in time and that knowledge, along with the residual pangs of guilt it brought with it were just as much to blame for his reluctance to accept the promotion as his belief in superstition.