I believe Fredo was going to be spared
I think Michael may have considered giving Fredo a pass, but that violent, resentful outburst in the boathouse--Fredo never making an apology, and admitting that he betrayed Michael for personal gain--sealed his fate.
Michael was still trying to get Fredo out of Havana saying Fredo was still his brother
That is a real anomaly. Michael was
frantic to get Fredo on that plane with him out of Havana. But, by the time he arrived in Vegas for his meeting with Tom, Rocco and Neri, Michael simply told Tom to "get word" to Fredo, when he could easily have Fredo brought to him immediately.