I doubt Paul saw anything coming- he had been boss for a good few yrs up until that point, and was only afraid of Neil/ not Gotti. He viewed Gotti as no more than a street thug with a big crew

He badly underestimated what would happen- which is why he promoted Tommy as underboss (it was a slap in the face to Gotti). In Paul’s mind, Gotti’s power was gone once Neil was dead and he’ll break up his crew/ put Gotti on the shelf or under someone etc and that would be that

Paul’s loyalists were mostly the guys who visited him almost weekly at his mansion ie Tommy Gambino, Joe Butch (although he was smart enough to buddy buddy with Gotti), Jimmy Brown. Paul mostly only invited those who were making money for him/ other than that he wouldn’t see u much.

If memory serves me right, I don’t think Nino was there much. Paul was the boss, but he really didn’t have that personal connection with many guys other than Bilotti that were willing to die for him

whereas Gotti in return had mostly his brothers and Angelo and that alone gave him a lot of power. And they too were willing to go to bat for Neil, so that was Neil’s power too