Carmine Persico would probably be out of prison by now like Christy Tick... If the feds can prove he had ANYTHING to do with the war from behind bars, he won't get out. And there is probably a lot of rats like Carmine Sessa that could say that he was.

If you look at all the bosses of the 1990s in New York, none of them really came out without incarceration. Vic Orena was never a particularly low-key guy, so I would assume that he wouldn't make it to the new millenium without being busted.

There would probably be greater control over the Cement and Concrete Workers' Union. Joseph Scopo was Vic Orena's underboss until he was whacked in '93, and him and Ralph Scopo Jr. continued controlling the union following Ralph Sr.'s 1986 life sentence. But Joe was whacked, and Ralph Jr., whilst not "shelved," was only truly brought back into the fold when Paulie Guns Bevacqua introduced them in 2009, if I recall correctly. That's a double-edged sword because, whilst Ralph Jr. ran the unions in the 1990s without attracting any attention, if the entire family had their claws in, it might be easier for the feds to bust.

Wild Bill Cutolo, personality-wise, was a lot like Vinny Gorgeous and John Gotti, and, if you've read Larry Mazza's book, you know he wasn't interested in staying low-key. He surrounded himself with so many people that, had the feds properly investigated him, they could probably cultivate a few rats, bug a few phones, make a decent case out of him. The '90s were simply not a time when mobsters could be loud and brash like he, and many others, were. But he had an incredibly large, young, and violent crew under him, similar to the Scarpas. Nowadays, a lot of Scarpa guys that were in the early 20s in the war are now being made and are soon going to be the family's "middle-management." Larry Sessa, Danny Capaldo, Joey Savarese, Big Anthony Russo are some notable examples. I think that if the war were never to happen and Cutolo was never whacked, it would be a similar situation with the young Cutolo crew guys.

I don't know what would happen to Carmine Persico's relatives. You have to remember that Vic Orena was actually a cousin of the Persicos. Maybe if it was a completely peaceful solution, with Carmine respectfully standing down, the Persicos (and Russos) would still be in good shape. Perhaps Little Allie Boy would be made underboss?

As Larry Mazza described, Vic Orena was disgruntling those in the Persico ranks before the war by emphasizing inductions on Queens guys. He also made his sons, and inducted a lot of New Jersey guys. Sal Profaci's crew was only disbanded due to the war. Off the top of my head, these are some of the many consequences I can think of.