Good analysis TB, but I don't think Michael gave up on Cuba. Although Michael believed that Castro could win, he was prudent to just want to wait. Also, I don't think he imbued Castro with any principles. Remember, the $2 million did make it to Cuba.

Michael did depart Cuba because he thought Roth was dead and that Batista would come after him. That environment was too unstable for Michael to remain in Cuba; Batista could be approached at a later date. Castro's impending takeover just lent itself to the instability, but Michael could wait on him also.

As far as Roth establishing an alibi, Michael's people were not going to be deterred from revenge by any Roth alibi if Michael was murdered in Cuba.