For a long time I thought Michael couldn’t give up on Cuba—it was too important to his goal of becoming the biggest legal gambling mogul in the Western Hemisphere. He didn’t have to be prescient to know that Batista was ruling on borrowed time—US newspapers in December 1958 were full of stories about the rebels’ gains, and the US State Department had renewed Batista’s US passport (he had dual citizenship) and guaranteed him safe passage to the US if he resigned. Since tourism was Cuba’s third-largest source of revenue (after mining and agriculture), he had reason to believe that the rebels would allow the casinos to operate. And, Castro hadn’t yet revealed himself as a Communist. Michael had to leave Cuba in a private plane to avoid getting caught up in a possible investigation of Roth’s murder. But, I thought he’d wait out the aftermath, and try again to be Cuban gaming kingpin after things settled down.
Now I believe Michael gave up on Cuba for good while he was in Havana. His witnessing of the rebel killing himself and a “captain of the command” may have convinced him that the rebels would prove to be too principled to be bought off and make him Mr. Big in gambling. More important, Roth, at his most clever, poisoned the well:
His birthday party was a move to establish an alibi for himself in case Tom, Rocco and/or Neri, or anyone else, came seeking revenge when, according to his plan, Michael turned up dead: “What? Me order Michael’s death? Why, I loved the kid like a son: just ask any of those thugs at my birthday party.” He also was preparing in case they tried to take over in Havana. Roth pledged, “At the time of my retirement, or death, I turn over all of my interests in the Havana operation to his control. But all of you will share.” He then promised big chunks of the Havana operation to others, and added that he would “save a piece for some friends in Nevada.” Roth probably didn’t know that Michael was planning to kill him before the New Year. But, he probably figured that Tom, Rocco and/or Neri might try to hasten his “retirement or death,” and grab what they thought was promised to Michael. By including others in his plan, he was signaling that they’d have to negotiate---probably fight—others before they could take over. Better for them to keep Roth alive and negotiate with him.
From what we know about Michael, he’d rather have carnal knowledge of a dog with scarlet fever than share one iota of Roth’s Havana empire with anyone. But, while Roth was doling out his holdings, Michael’s face remained impassive. I think it was because he not only knew he was going to kill Roth, but he had accepted by that time that Cuba was a lost cause.
