I just think that it was an awkward expression from Roth. He's telling Michael what Michael already knows: the money is not yet in Cuba.

Now, at the time that Roth makes that statement to Michael, there is no indication that Fredo was in or on his way to Cuba. So, any intelligence that Roth had access to would be moot at that point. That gets proven by Roth's statement to Michael later (after Fredo arrives with the money) about the bag in your room.