In my opinion, you should look at several factors:

* the relative size of the Montreal Mafia in Quebec and the Greater Toronto Area Siderno Group in Ontario;

* how many people involved or associated with those criminal organizations engage in drug importation and trafficking (regardless of whether these individuals are inducted members or not);

* whether criminals in Quebec (Italian and otherwise) had already been buying cocaine from the GTA Siderno Group during the ongoing Montreal mob war;

* whether criminals in Quebec (Italian and otherwise) would still be able to get their coke through other suppliers even if the Siderno Group were to develop a stranglehold on the supply of cocaine through the Port of Montreal;

* control of drug importation at the Port of Montreal, i.e., corruption of stevedores and checkers;

* the level of importation of cocaine at other Canadian maritime ports (Halifax, Vancouver, Saint John, St. John's, Windsor);

* the distribution of cocaine in the aforementioned provinces (as well as provinces west of Ontario and east of Quebec);

* the current flow of narcotics;

* the current drug routes; and

* the intended remapping of the flow and routes.

The last bullet point is particularly important, as the posters arguing in this thread that the takeover of the Montreal underworld by the 'ndrangheta (read: Siderno Group) is a fait accompli are convinced that the Siderno Group will soon be flooding New York City with cocaine. How? By importing the cocaine through the Port of Montreal and then smuggling it over the Canadian border over land and into New York State.

For many years now, there has been no evidence that major or minor shipments of coke are being smuggled into the US from Canada.

Most cocaine being smuggled into Canada (the destination country) passes through the United States (transit country). The cocaine has been primarily getting into Canada over land through border points via vehicles (mostly commercial). The cocaine has also been getting through Canadian maritime ports and, to a lesser extent, through airports and parcel (for example, through the Léo-Blanchette mail processing centre, which is located in Saint-Laurent, Quebec).

The provenance of the cocaine entering Canada is known in general terms--we know the source countries are typically Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia (but not just those countries); we know that before the coke destined for Canada goes through the US, other transit countries may include Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, or others. We also know that insofar as the cocaine entering Canada bypasses the continental US, the route is usually Mexico, up the Pacific Ocean, and into British Columbia.

When articles were written about Carmine Verduci right after his murder, we were privileged to learn in Peter Edwards's story that the route for the cocaine he was smuggling into Canada was Mexico–British Columbia–Ontario. I write "privileged" because that level of detail is hardly ever publicly available, as it is used as police intelligence. Posters on these forums, like me, can rely on newspaper articles, government-issued organized-crime backgrounders, and anti-drug institutional reports all we want; however, there are limitations to using such information. For example, you can read about cocaine smuggling routes, but the reports will only list source and destination countries. So whenever there has been a drug seizure involving cocaine in the last few years in Quebec and Ontario--not to mention in other Canadian provinces--you will read in the newspapers a list of criminals or groups charged but you won't ever find out where the cocaine came from and all the other places the cocaine travelled en route before arriving in the hands of the people charged.

There is so much more that I can write about each of the bullet points I listed farther above, but that's a lot of work. So I will just mention for now that I think we should keep a particular eye on the interaction between the Hells Angels in Ontario and those in Quebec. The fairly recent mass release of all the Hells Angels in Quebec who were originally charged in Project SharQc may have ramifications down the road if there haven't been some consequences already. Some Hells Angels chapters in both provinces have influence and control over particular Hells chapters and puppet clubs in Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Prince Edward Island. Those of you who have read last year's Business or Blood know that the largest funeral wreath seen at Vito Rizzuto's funeral services came from the Ontario Hells; however, the landscape may have changed since the aforementioned release of all those Hells in Quebec. Similarly, although Salvatore Cazzetta seems to have been allied with the Montreal Mafia leadership after Rizzuto's death, he is now in jail--while Cazzetta is the face of the Hells in Quebec and is an influential crime figure, he may be impotent to stop any important developments he may not like within the organization.