Thanks for your thoughtful response, Oli:
when did Michael order the $2 million brought to Cuba? Was it on the spur of the moment only after Michael witnessed the rebels at the roadblock ("They could win"?) because he figured that Batista's days were numbered and he could make a deal with his successors as you suggest? Or was it previously timed to arrive when Fredo brought it?
Obviously he didn't bring the money with him. So, I'm
guessingthat he had it brought after the meeting with Batista, as part of his signal that he was committed to being Roth's successor despite the war against Batista.
Of course, if he figured that Batista's days were numbered, why was he still in Cuba on New Year's eve? I ask that because if he intended to make a deal with Batista's successors, why did he leave Cuba? If he leaves, how does he make that deal?
I'm
guessing his being at the party was a tactical move--to establish an alibi for the verifiable time that Roth was murdered. Michael couldn't have known that Batista would abdicate just after midnight. I think the plane was his insurance that he wouldn't be arbitrarily arrested or held in custody. I think he would have come back--with the money--when the dust of Roth's murder settled.
Another question: how did Michael learn about his possible assassination? Who were his contacts in Cuba?
Michael simply deduced it. Since he knew Roth was determined to have him killed, the setup--especially the military car for his "protection"--seemed obvious to him.
