I registered in the early 1980s and have always been independent/nonpartisan.

I disagree that Kasich doesn't have a chance. It's based on polls and votes, and the one who stands out with the highest favorables wins the primary. I was a fan of Rand Paul, but my interest in him has declined while my opinion of Kasich and Walker has risen. In fact my top three (in no particular order) -- right now -- are Kasich, Walker and Fiorina. The next two are Carson and Cruz. The person who ends up on top may not by any of my choices because the polls and votes are simple majority rule. Doesn't mean the party is preventing my top people from rising to the top.