On this year's ballot, he probably the fifth or sixth best pitcher listed. I think his numbers will improve in the next two years -- three of those pitchers aren't on the ballot next year, plus the 2016 and 2017 ballots have very few worthy first time candidates.

I think Piazza, Griffey and possibly Raines get in next year, particularly since 2017 is Raines' last year on the ballot. In 2017, Ivan Rodriguez is probably the best first timer, but I don't think he gets in the first try. That might be the best shot for Schilling and Bagwell.