There's many who believe Paul perhaps would've beaten the Commission trial. I don't know what they base this on, but I think it's possible. Had he went to prison, Gotti would be dead. He knew it, that was one of his main motives in moving against Castellano the way he did. He felt if he didn't act, Castellano would've had him whacked first, which may have indeed been the case since Castellano is mentioned as stating he'd breaking up the "Bergin Crew".