People can speculate all they want. But I think most of these polls that have Obama ahead are assuming their will be same Democratic turnout as there was in 2008. I don't see that happening. In fact this time it's the opposite.
Thats not what early voting has been showing so far...but I agree it will very likely be lower.
This is the way I see it Dap. Obama didn't just win his base he also got most of the independents (like me) and crossovers from the Republican party who couldn't stand Sarah Palin back in 2008.
This time there will be NO Republicans voting for Obama whatsoever and he's lost a good chunk of independents. Plus the black vote that Obama had so much of last time will be much lower. Combine that with like Skinny said, more Republicans motivated to vote for a stronger tandem and to get Obama "out" you have a much closer of not even race.
Gotcha, I understand your opinion. Like you, most people argue that undecided voters tend to break against the incumbent, in this case Mr. Obama. But this has also not really been true in recent elections.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/01/2012-polls-incumbent-rule_n_2061595.html?utm_hp_ref=@pollster
In some states, also, Obama is at 50 percent of the vote in the polling average, or close to it, meaning that he wouldn’t need very many undecided voters to win.
Another point that has been made is that Romney has the momentum in the polls: whether or not he would win an election today, the argument goes, he is on a favorable trajectory that will allow him to win on Tuesday. I dont buy this argument as you can see from the evidence on the right column of the table below.
That the beauty of America, we are all entitled to our viewpoints and opinion. We will see who is right next week. I cant wait till all of this is over!
