http://www.270towin.com/Interesting little site. You can play out all sorts of scenarios on it. Me personally, both candidates have a number of way to get to 270. It's all about election day. We just don't know. The thing that shocked me was that how many states are a toss up. Just goes to show how close this actually is at this point.
Who did you give Ohio to?
Those states like Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin are tricky. They are overwhelmingly white and not progressively liberal.
Obama got 43% of white vote in 2008. I don't think he'll get that this time. Just guessing it will be 40%. Average white vote for Dems in a Presidential is between 37%-43 so I put Obama in the middle.
Then you have to worry about a larger white turnout than 2008. I am sure more white voters will be out because Romney/Ryan is a much stronger combo than McCane/Palin.
That's why Romney is polling so high in Wisconsin, Ohio, and Iowa. Even Pennsylvania is tightening and it's all because more white voters support Romney than they supported McCane. The white vote is making this a close race.
