9 different '12 Electoral Predix collected together, all predict Obama victory. However they differ in final score (highest Obama EV is 332, lowest is 281.)
People can speculate all they want. But I think most of these polls that have Obama ahead are assuming their will be same Democratic turnout as there was in 2008. I don't see that happening. In fact this time it's the opposite.
"Don't ever go against the family again. Ever"- Michael Corleone