They tended to endorse Repub candidates unless the Repub was just a mess (i.e. 2004 and 1992).
I hate to correct you, Dap. Because you're my Bronx paisan and all. But the Republicans weren't that much of a mess in '92. Sure, the economy was in the shitter. But George HW Bush
had just won a war of sorts, and if it wasn't for Ross Perot, he
probably would have been re-elected.
But you were just a tyke in '92. I was already older in '92 than you are right now
.
As a history buff I would have to disagree, Bush had alienated much of his conservative base by breaking his 1988 campaign pledge against raising taxes, the economy was in a recession, and Bush's perceived greatest strength, foreign policy, was regarded as much less important following the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the relatively peaceful climate in the Middle East after the defeat of Iraq in the Gulf War.
Perot did play a role in his defeat as well.
I was going to mention the Jobs Report today, but the last two have hada zilch poll impact. Both voting factions have settled in, a general public disconnect. 7.9% unemployment, but the number that'll be grounded into our heads this weekend will be 600K jobs added in the last 4 months. "Strong growth" from what I understand is this morning's headline, not "unemployment up."
The added jobs in August though is stunning. Originally 96,000, now upped to 192,000. Whaaat?!?
Obama started with unemployment at 7.8% and it's 7.9% today.
Look at the detailed numbers, thats cause more people are confident the economy is getting better and thus re-entered the workforce.
Job growth has actually been picking up and last month was the strongest month in the past eight for new jobs.
Things are looking good for The Kenyan. I just hope the turnout is there to bring him over the hump and lock up the election.
What looks good for Obama?
He's fighting to keep Wisconsin after winning there by a big margin in 2008. Wisconsin not only elected a Republican governor, but won a big recall too. There's Republican momentum there.
He's trailing with independents in Ohio. In 2012, more absentee ballots in Ohio were requested by Republicans. In 2008 it was Democrats asking for the ballots. In Ohio, Romney leads independents. So really, Ohio can go either way.
The positive reviews for FEMA and for Obama in the wake of the Hurricane plus the positive economic news that the economy is picking up the pace in terms of job creation.
The addition of Paul Ryan of Wisconsin to the Republican ticket does not guarantee victory over President Obama, but it cements the state’s role as a true battleground. Democrats carried the state in the last six presidential contests – often narrowly – but Republican groups are advertising to try to push the Obama campaign to spend money. Still, Mitt Romney is at the top of the ticket and must show that he can make his own case here. Most recent Wisconsin poll (Oct 28-29) has Obama leading 49 to 46.
There are few credible paths to the White House for Mitt Romney without winning Ohio, a well-established bellwether. The state has accurately picked winning presidential candidates in the last 12 elections. A steadily improving economy could help President Obama carry the state again. Large portions of the state remain conservative, but Republicans worry that Democrats may be motivated by a victory last year in which voters struck down a law restricting public workers’ rights to bargain collectively.Obama leads in Ohio 48 to 46 in recent polls. Think of it this way, if Romney was going to win Ohio he wouldnt be trying to create an alternate path to victory by trying to flip PA. Romney is getting desperate, McCain spent the last wkn of the campaign in 2008 in PA trying to do that as well.
