We disagree alot (in fact most of the time) but me and Skinny agree on who will win. Difference only in EV score.

All this smoke in the air (mostly by the right) about how Pennsylvania and Minnesota and Michigan and whatever are really toss-up, well I consider them just that, smoke. I'm reminded of 4 years ago when Georgia and Dakota (North?) were talked up as potential Obama swing states...and while he had higher than usual non-redneck Democratic candidate voting % in those states (he lost Georgia by only 5), never once did I seriously consider him winning them from the polls I constantly read and compared at the time.

I do find it interesting the contrast between national and state polls, both which telling different stories. (On that note, National Journal's newest poll has Obama up by 5. Their last poll had a tie.)