According to the Electoral Map of http://www.realclearpolitics.com which condenses the latest polls, Obama is likely to win the election.
There are eight "Toss Up" states:
Nevada, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Missouri, Virginia, Colorado.
If nothing changes in the other states, it would be enough if he wins Florida and loses the others.
If he wins Ohio or North Carolina or Virginia, he needs just one more state.
Romney, on the other hand, needs 89 more votes.
That's why I believe that the only thing that can keep Obama from winning the election is a big mistake, or maybe another mad pastor.