Certainly, the recent standoff with the United States has damaged Iran’s deterrence posture. In less than a week, Khamenei challenged Obama twice and lost out on both occasions. First there was the threat that “not a drop of oil will pass through the Strait of Hormuz” if new sanctions are imposed by the U.S. and others. But sanctions were imposed anyway, with no apparent consequences. This move was followed by another threat, with the Islamic Republic this time vowing to take action “if the U.S. Navy moves an aircraft carrier into the Gulf.” Within hours, though, the U.S. government met that challenge by stating that it would keep sending carrier strike groups through the Persian Gulf regardless of the threats.

But while the potential international fallout of all this has been discussed, there’s been virtually no comment on the domestic implications of Khamenei’s loss of face. The reality is that the Iranian regime needs to show muscle abroad. Failure to do so could be interpreted as a sign of weakness by its opponents at home, and could even create division among the leadership’s supporters.