Obama is the most vulnerable incumbent since Jimmy Carter. But, unlike Carter, who faced a formidable opponent (Reagan), Obama stands an excellent chance of winning. The GOP debates have worn down every candidate and exposed their flaws. Romney keeps leading, but by small margins. Nobody's enthusiastic about him, so he wins by default. Everytime someone new pops up with a new idea, he surges to the front--only to be dragged down by his quickly exposed flaws, weaknesses and skeletons in his closet.

So, if it's Romney, a lot of GOPs are going to sit on their hands in the presidential election. Also, there's a good chance that someone like Paul or Bachmann will launch a third party candidacy that will guarantee an Obama victory. And even if they don't, Romney's likely to make the same mistake McCain made in 2008--he'll keep looking to the Right, to assure them he's one of them, and not to the Middle, where the people are who elect presidents.