Nuclear-armed Iran would destabilize the Middle East. Some countries fear Iran as much as Israel does--perhaps more, since they lack the military means to stop Iran.
The Middle East (or at least the one we've known) has already destabilized in '11. Syria, Iran's only regional ally, might be next to fall. The brutal crackdown on democratic demonstrators after the '09 election was rigged really turned off all those people wanting to topple their tyrants as a possible alternative governmental model.* Not to mention it's heavily subsidized economy has gone to shit.
Iran is much weaker now than it was when the last U.S. President left office.
The UN report that finally confirms Iran's nuclear activites could be viewed as a go-ahead for a preventive attack. But by whom?
If the US attacks, Iran, which lacks the ability to strike directly at the US, will retaliate against Israel, possibly causing a major war.
Or, American forces in Iraq and Afghanistan (you know, the countries situated inbetween Iran) are targeted in the first strike retaliation. If Americans strike first, that is the inevitable expectation retaliation.
If its the first strike in a campaign not merely to delay the nuke program, but regime change...regardless of who launched first strike, those American forces will be the target.
Knowing that, Israel might attack--but Israel would need guarantees of major diplomatic and possibly miitary support from the US.
Paranoid hypothetical: Israel goes ahread with the pre-emptive strike
without the American greenlight. What then? Would the outraged American electorate (and conversely Congress) push the government into a war it didn't start or agree with in the first place in order to finish it?
Unlikely, but I wouldn't dismiss it. Israel is an arrogant ally that pretty much bullies its way with the U.S. regarding foreign policy, and not necessarily always in America's best interest.
BUT: US/Israel relations are at a near-alltime low--and got lower after the media reported on Obama's and Sarkozy's criticism of Netanyahu. Obama, who has said he doesn't want sanctions against Iran's central bank for fear of higher oil prices, isn't going to declare that any retaliatory attack on Israel by Iran would constitute an attack on the US.
Totally disagree. That public threat would be enough. Come to think of it, what happened to Obama's "nuclear shield" promise to Israel back in '09? Unless I've misunderstood that, its still in place. If it was ever implemented.
I'm not worried about Iran attacking because it's like stepping on Superman's cape.
*=Turkey is the model. Islamic and democratic, which unsurprisingly is alot more appealing than a theocratic/fascist dictatorship.
