And don't forget the ever-loving Dow. Right now it's way up over 12K. A lot of a recession is psychological. People become paralyzed by fear when they see their investments and their 401Ks dropping. Then nobody buys cars or major appliances, etc., they cut back on dining out or put off that home improvement project. They start to see an improvement in their savings, those purse strings start to open.

The major impediment to economic recovery, however, is the housing market. People still see their homes as their single largest assets, whether they intend to sell them or not. If they feel that they have "lost" money or won't be able to unload them if they had to, then the fear persists.

For example, I could still easily double my money because I bought my house back in 1996 and have a small mortgage. However, that's nothing compared to the fact that I could have tripled my money 4 years ago. People persist in seeing a loss, even if there truly isn't one.

And until they don't, the economy, and therefore the election, is a huge unknown.