I'm fairly sure that one thing and one thing only will impact the outcome of the election - the economy. It's what undid Bush I, and it could potentially undo this President as well. Keeping a roof over your head, making sure you have enough food for your family, and feeling secure in your job. Add a few little luxuries like buying a new car or taking a nice vacation, if people can have and/or feel those things, partisan politics, shmartisan politics. Whoever will make them feel secure (and not necessarily in a Homeland Security kind of way) will get the votes.