Bachmann is so very very out there that if she won the nomination it would be tantamount to giving the election away. And there's a good chance there might be another SC opening after 2012. You never know. So I think to the extent that they exist the Republican powers that be will ensure that Bachmann does not win.
I would laugh with you, since someone else said the same about Palin'12. Then I read that new Gallup poll (to be posted later) and...I can't just dimiss either figures.
As much as we want to dismiss Bachmann as a hack, she effectively is Palin without the tabloid baggage and the Tucson "blood libel" major PR screwups. (aside from the embarrasing "Tea Party Response," which even then gave her some national exposure.)
Problem with the Tea Party is, its too small to take over the RNC and implement party policy yet its too big to to be ignored. Thus the last 2 years we've had a inner-party civil war between the Teabaggers and the establishment. A good example of this recently and telling was GOP firing Michael Steele as RNC chairman in their party election, despite Steele being head of the organization during the massive House landslide victory and gained several Senate seats. He became a casualty because he wasn't acceptable enough tot he Teabagger delegates.
'12 looks like such a fluid unpredictable field. What else can explain Newt Gingrich in the double digits? That's bullshit. Not saying Bachmann/Palin will be the nominee, but the fact they still contend still leaves open that possiblity.
Originally Posted By: dontomasso
The GOP is not going to nominate any of the clowns or duds whose names we see bandied about every day unless they think Obama is unbeatable If they think they have a chance to take the White House after the primaries, you'll see a deadlocked convention and a "reluctant" Jeb Bush accepting the noomination on the second ballot.
I could see the Establishment and Tea Party much earlier in the primaries settle upon a compromise candidate. The one problem with your scenario is it makes sense for the Democrats and their convention formula of proportional delegates, while the GOP's primary format of winner-takes-all makes such a deadlock less likely. Which was sorta the point of that decision in the first place: Weed out the competition quickly and find their candidate.
But jesus all these candidates suck. I know the Pawlenty camp think he's that "compromise" candidate, but ever seen Timmy?
