I think the GOP will repeat a mistake Goldwater made in '64 and McGovern repeated in '72. Both won the nomination via well-run campaigns from the extreme wings of their respective parties. They then campaigned by preaching to their respective choirs instead of reaching out to the Great Middle, where presidential elections are won. McCain made that mistake, in his own way: although the GOP right wing didn't put him over for nomination, he spent far too much time in the campaign trying to assure the right that he was one of them, instead of moving to the middle. Did he think for a minute that the GOP right would have voted for Obama?

The Tea Partyers have made impressive gains in Congress and are quite influential. But they're all very new, and are, as yet, leaderless (recall that even Palin campaigned for McCain last year against a Tea Party primary rival). The likely GOP nominee will be a "mainstream" Republican--a tax/spend/deficit politico only rhetorically different from the average Dem. But he'll have to spend all of his time trying to placate the Tea Partyers instead of reaching out to the middle. Even worse: the Tea Partyers, holding their ideological purity sacred, nominate their own candidate, splitting the GOP vote and absolutely assuring a Dem victory.