In politics two weeks is eternity.

Between now and November 2012 there is no telling what could happen.

A wise person once told me the one constant in politics is that the conventional wisdom is usually wrong. Three months ago Obama looked like a slam dunk one termer. Then along comes the lame duck congress, Obama moves to the center and is
shuffling his staff, and now I have to listen to the geniuses on Meet the Press yesterday talking about whether Hillary will run in 2016 after Obama's second term. MARONE!

Conventional wisodm is that if umemployment stays at 9% Obama
loses, and if it is at 8 or less he is re-elected. IMHO this is nonsense. There is a lot more to it than that.

It is safe to say that Obama will win the big States on the East and West Coasts, and whomever the GOP nominates will
take the south and most border states along with most of the
western states.

Obama won easily in 2008 because in retrospect McCain ran a terrible campaign and Obama generated more exitement than any candidate since JFK. He wont have that kind of enthusiasm in 2012 and it will make it harder for him to win states like Virginia, N. Carolina and Florida which he previously carried.

The GOP has a problem with the tea party people if they are unhappy with Boehner et al. and they splinter off. If that
happens I think Obama wins by default. Assuming it doesn't,
all bets are off, and it comes down to who the G.O.P. nominates.

I think their strongest candidate would be Jeb Bush who says he isn't running, but let's wait and see.

Right now I don't see any of the G.O.P. hopefuls able to unseat him, but if we have a second wave of economic downturn, or major setbacks overseas, then he could be in trouble.

Bottom line is the presidency is for the incumbent to lose. If a sitting president is strong enough to make independents so much and shrug and say, "No point in changing horses," then the incumbent wins. It is only when the incumbent is seen as
incompetent (Carter) or totally out of touch (Bush I) that he
loses. In '72 everyone who followed politics knew Nixon was up to his neck in dragging the Vietnam War out, Watergate and a lot of other bad stuff, but the Dems went off and nominated McGovern who was not acceptable to the mainstream, who held their noses and gave Nixon the landslide he got.

Its more of a "no confidence" vote, and I don't know if it can be quantified. If more people have no confidence in Obama in 2012 than not, he loses. If not, he wins. It is that simple.