The rosetta stone for this discussion IMHO is the meeting between Michael and Fredo in Havana. Mike pointedly asks him if he knew Johnny Ola, and Fredo lied to him. Then when they go out for the afternoon, and Fredo is loosened up by a couple of banana daquaris he seems to be remorseful and is having second thoughts about what he did. After Michael confides in him about the upcoming attempt on his life Fredo says some telling things. He says "Why couldn't wehave spenttime like this before?" Before what? Obviously his treachery. Then even more telling "I was mad at you!" Again for what? and finally, the very freudian statement that sometimes he thinks his Mama's jest that he was left on the doorstep by gypsies might be true.
In other words he is not a true brother to Michael.
This scene has guilt written all through it.
Ecellent points, DT...
I am not arguing that Fredo did not betray Michael or did not try to hide the betrayal or feel guilty about it. As I wrote Fredo had some massive resentments and envy of Michael.
But I just can't see him in an active role in the conspiracy.
Whatever Fredo did, did he know he was acting against his brother's interests?
Absolutely he did. And he was glad to do so. And that alone is enough for Michael to damn him.
But I can't believe that the Fredo who is unable to defend or avenge his father, who has a nervous breakdown and is sent away during the Five Family war, who isn't smart enough to figure out that Michael, not Tom or the Don, is the boss during the meeting with Moe Green, who lets Moe Green bully him and even beat him, and who can't even successfully handle his wife, is going to be someone Roth or Ola put any sort of serious trust in, let alone be capable of killing two mobsters by himself.
Is some of this possible? Sure. I just don't think it's likely.
I think that Ola and later Roth cultivated Fredo for a very long time, listened to his grievances and gave him support. When the time came they asked him for some help on "the big deal".
Now what the exact nature of the help was, I don't think anyone can know for sure.
Perhaps it was something like "Vouch for these new guys out of NY to join your team" or "Let these guys from Ola's crew stay behind when he leaves, they might need to talk to Michael first thing next morning" or "Hey we're arriving by boat launch, can you draw up a general map of your brother's compound" or maybe something like "Can you introduce us to Rocco"...
