The odds are against Tony not getting pinched. Most bosses or acting bosses in NY or Jersey dont last as long as 4 or 5 years, like Tony.

The most normal thing would be they get him in a rico-trial. Seeing they do have some things already; like the airline tickets and a testimony from Ray Curto. The feds will probably try to get some bigger stuff through wiretape and seek some more witnesses.
The important thing is what they can sue him for. If they got a murder-case, he can forget getting out in the next 15-20 years.
If the charges are too much and the evidence and witnesses too strong, maybe he will rat. (But i dont think he would)

Otherwise if he only faces a couple of years he might just do his time and even make a plea-bargain.

The chance for every high-ranking wiseguy to get through life without spending a day in jail are very slim. So if you get away with about 5 years, you should be quite happy. Its the risk every mobster knows he is taking.