Really, that would be an absurd thing for Roth to promise. How could he make that happen? Did Fredo envision Roth telling people that he killed Michael and now wants Fredo to be Don?
There seem to be varying opinions of Fredo's intelligence in this thread, but we know that Fredo is aware that "everyone says" he's dumb. Does he truly think that those same people would sit back and let him take over after Michael's death? That Rocco, Neri, Tom, etc. would stand aside for him? Even the dumbest version of Fredo couldn't have believed that, and wouldn't have trusted such a promise from Roth.
Once again, logic is on your side, LW. Of course Roth never could have promised Fredo the Donship because he knew, even if Fredo didn't, that Rocco and Neri would have squashed him like a bug rather than let him take over--not even Tom would have supported him. But, did Fredo in his own mind know it? We see in the Trilogy how greed and lust for vengeance blind the perps to the obvious. Could Paulie seriously think he wouldn't be the prime suspect in setting up Vito? Did Carlo have any right to believe he could get away with setting up Sonny by beating up Connie for a second time?
