As we all are getting closer to the 162 game "Pitching Starts Maximum", allow me to remind you guys of this:

Sounds fair enough to me, especially since some people aren't paying much attention. Also, perhaps post a warning for those who reach 158, 159, 160, etc...

Yeah, I was planning to post warnings as people got real close to the 162.

With an almost 500 point lead going into September, I'd give you 50-1 now.


.....welcome back.

OK....I'll take 50-1.

How much? :p

I don't want to steal your money. You now only have 10 SP games in hand, so unless you average about 40 or so points in those games, you aren't going to win. :p

You wouldn't be stealing my money - that's what being an underdog is all about.

Going into today I had 11 starts in hand. If I can average, say, 16 points per start in those 11 games, I make up 176 points.

I'm down 467 right now, so that would leave me minus 291.

I also figure I can make up some of the games I'm short at my offensive positions - I said some, not all - maybe 15-20 games worth or so - so there's another, say, 60 points.

That leaves me minus 231.

I catch a few breaks, some injuries, you get a few big pitching minuses (a few blown saves turn into -20 point losses or something).....

The odds are WELL WORTH 50-1 AFAIC, even much less.

Obviously for me to catch you a lot has to happen and go my way, but that's what being an underdog is all about.

Problem here is - and I understand it - for you to win anything appreciable, let's say $50 - you have to risk $2500, which I don't expect you to do.

I don't even expect you to risk $1000 at the 20-1 I offered to take.

(Which, BTW, makes the odds a lot less than 20-1 or 50-1. Maybe more like 8-1 or 10-1).

And, I'm not really looking to lose $50 on a bet like this, because chances are I will lose, and anyway, if I won I wouldn't want to win that much money from you....

Apparently I'm just a CURSE to any and every SP I get my hands on. Regardless of the numbers that made me feel confident in all of them, I just totally fuck them all over. *I*, personally, am the cause of ruining pitching careers in all of Major League Baseball, apparently. And for the SPs and their families, all I can say is... I'm sorry.

Monday (official)

With all due respect, 'cuz who am I to tell you who to pick up and who to use, and I'm sure you had your reasons for picking up Williams and using him, but I'll be damned if I know what the big rush was.

You have so few starts left to go that Williams on the road in a hitter's park against Webb could not have possibly been one of the best options you had left this season.

There I go again -- giving strategy tips :p

Pul-eeeze... I knew the situation... :rolleyes:

I said and meant "Regardless of the numbers that made me feel confident in all of them"... I stated a FACT, not an opinion. :p

I put much more thought into this than you think... and I'm starting to think that THAT is my problem...!

If you're gonna knock my skills, please tell me: 1) How picking up and using Hamels last time out was a bad choice... and 2) how betting on Saunders was a terrible choice... Like ANYONE could estimate they'd both go 2 fucking innings for -20 something points EACH! :rolleyes:

what about the day I picked Millwood and he pitched 1 inning for -39 pts!?!?!

Here's where we are now, going into Tuesday:

SP Games Started

Can I ask why, with so few starts left this year, you've been picking up scraps off the waiver wire and expecting good things to happen?

Yeah, I guess you're right... why pick up some talented "scraps" on the waiver wire who've been kicking ass the past month, as opposed to my "Ace" bullSchmidt who helped me out today with a -14 :p :rolleyes:

I wasn't even gonna play him, but figured hey, maybe the opposite will happen (I catch a break) when I put him in a poor matchup... NOPE! :rolleyes:

I'm not knocking your skills - I know you put time and effort and research into this.

And I never said Hamels or Saunders were bad picks.

Hell, I got burned myself taking Saunders last week in the Salary Crap Game, didn't I? And how could you be faulted for using Hamels, as well as he'd pitched recently?

And I said something to the effect of "Who am I to be questioning your strategy decisions?"

I mean looking at reality, what have I really proved over the four seasons we've played these baseball games?

That I'm maybe 6% or 8% better than you?

How much of a difference has there been over these four years between you and me and DB and JL, and maybe DM and TM if they had played more?

Certainly we're all close enough in ability in these games to fairly state that luck plays a very large part in determining the winner - or at least helps a great deal.

Tuesday (official)

Here's something to think about for next year...

Whereas, our current settings are to attribute -6 for a Save Opp and +8 for a Save (effectively devaluing a Save to +2 ( :rolleyes: ), with a "Botched Save" (not a stat category for some reason) effectively worth the -6 for the Save Opp)...

However, I just noticed today with one of my relievers... we're charging Botched Saves to ALL pitchers who were given a Save Opp whether or not they were attributed a Botched Save in the boxed scores.

Today, Grabow pitched .2 innings in relief, gave up a run on 3 hits -- granted, a shitty relief appearance -- but Pittsburgh came back to win the game in the bottom of the 11th (thanks, Freddy! ). He did technically botch a save opportunity, although he wasn't in there to specifically save the game -- if anything I'd call it a Botched Hold. He wasn't (at least as of yet) attributed with a Botched Save in the boxed score. Yet, I got the -6 for his being in a Save Opp w/o saving the game.

Is that how we want to do this? Attributing stats to players whether or not they're attributed them officially in the box scores?

Garbow was credited with a BS. EVERY pitcher who has a save opportunity and blows it, is

All right... it wasn't there before, but is now... "never mind!"

Wednesday (unofficial)

I was gonna save this discussion for the Hot Stove League, but what I've noticed is this, which really isn't fair:

A reliever like Proctor comes in in the 8th inning with a two run lead in what is a "Save Situation".

It's Torre's intention that he pitch the 8th and Rivera the 9th.

But proctor gives up a three-run homer, thus getting credit not only for the loss, but the blown save as well.

What's unfair is that Proctor doesn't relly have the opportunity to ever pick up the ave in these situations - only Rivera does.

Altho he's in there in a save situation in the 8th, the best Proctor can wind up with is a "Hold" since Rivera will always pitch the 9th.

So Protor is "risking" (if you will) the -6 he can get for the blown save, vs. (only) the +1 he can get for the Hold.

He never really gets the chance (under normal circumstances) to pick up the +8 for earning the save - Rivera does.

Very unfair to Proctor, and in general it leads to a lot of Blown Saves, in games in which the pitcher getting credit for the Blown Save had no chance to get a save himself.

Are you being sarcastic, or are you making fun of my previous post complaining about the same thing?

Wrong.

Mo wasn't pitching tonight, regardless, after a win in the first game, and with a day game tomorrow. Only a Yankee fan watching the game would probably know that.

But in any event, don't get me started on The Proctologist. Please. I was livid earlier from that piece of shit!!!!

PS - You don't even have Proctor...! What's your complaint? Trying to use smoke and mirrors to show you didn't start your Wang (29) tonight, or...? :p

...and, might I add, quite unfair to those of us playing fantasy sports -- where normally Saves mean something more than 2 pts! :p

I said that in March, but it fell on deaf ears.

First of all, I resent the implication that I was being sarcastic.

Your compaint was different from what I was saying, anyway.

You were complaining that we were giving guys statistics that "didn't appear in the box score", and you later corrected yourself, saying "All right... it wasn't there before, but is now... "never mind!" .

I was saying that the scoring system is unfair to proctor, since he had no chance to earn the +8 for the save, while risking the -6 for the Blown Save.

I certainly wasn't making fun of you, and my feelings are hurt because you though that I was.

I was merely pointing out something that I had observed during the course of the season, and mentioning that I was saving the discussion for the off season when we discuss ways to make next year's game better.

As far as Proctor goes, the problem doesn't have to specificially affect me personally for me to mention it or try to fix it, so don't say "PS - You don't even have Proctor...! What's your complaint?"

My complaint is that it's something unfair in the scoring system. Again, it doesn't have to affect me personally.

I guess using Proctor was a bad example because he pitched tonight.

I used him and Rivera to use pitchers that everyone was familiar with - I didn't intend to use tonight as a specific example- I was speaking in general about these situations in which a guy brought in in a "Hold" situation, who has no chance to get the save - gets charged with the "Blown Save"

As far as the value of the save goes, I still don't see why if a win is worth +7, a Save should be worth more than +2 or +3.

The best SPs get 16-20 wins, the best RPs 40-55 saves.

The -6 for the Save Opportunity is in there only because Yahoo doesn't allow us to assign a negative value to a Blown Save.

Or don't you think that there should be a negative value for blowing a save?

To me, that's one of the most dramatic and horrible negative things that can possibly happen to a team, and there should certainly be a negative consequence when it happens.

And what does any of this have to fo with my not using Wang today?

I don't (or very, very rarely do) whine about those things.

But if I commented and criticized myself and said I was wrong (which I obviously was) to not have used Wang, someone would have said that I was "whining" because I was commenting that I didn't use Wang.

I know how many more starts I need.
I know which SPs I have.
I know more or less who their remaining starts are scheduled against.
I've figured out which of the starts I plan to use to reach my 162.

Wang's start last night wasn't one of them.

I was stupid, you were lucky

Maybe I'll let you visit your Wang soon.

Wednesday (Official)

Same idea, basically.

However, Grabow came in in the 8th to hold the game, not save the game for 2 innings. The Proctologist was put in -- and was meant to -- hold and then save the game in the 9th to give Mo a night off. Proctor blew the save opp (as he always has); Grabow mearly blew holding the game in the 8th.

...and how can I not jab you for benching a 29-point pitching start?? I just didn't feel up to doing comments for everyone - but couldn't let that one pass...

Wow - A-Rod's back! Funny thing is, had I had another available 3B playing today I'd've benched him!!