Carlo was smirking and thanked Papa, truly believing he has fooled the Corleones

Nothing like having a right-hand man spy, who Set up Sonny to be killed, feeding Barzini all the inside information

(At Connie's wedding):

TOM


Now your new son-in-law; give him something important?

VITO CORLEONE

Never. Give him a living, but never discuss the Family business with him.

Could you expand on your answer --

"Yeah, the family had a lotta buffiz,"

The "living" that Vito gave Carlo was a dinky-ass storefront betting parlor. Even when Carlo said, at the dinner table, that he could be more helpful, Sonny shut him right down ("We don't discuss business at the table"--this after telling Clemenza to take care of the freelance Harlem numbers dealers),

Carlo knew nothing of value to Barzini. Even if he'd run To Barzini after Michael told him he'd be his "right hand man" in Nevada, Barzini wouldn't have taken him seriously. And anyway, Barzini probably was planning to kill Michael before he moved to Nevada.

Mr Turnbull you may find this very amusing but I promise you, the members of this Board....do! as well Good one

Money for jam! for Barzini to find out what the Corleones' got under their fingernails, ya' know
Barzini might, he just might “have taken him [Carlo] seriously” believing the 'weak' Corleones were slippin' even further

Don Barzini after all, did think Michael would fall for the Tessio brokered Barzini-Michael meeting, the transparently ill-conceived charade

Trilogy theme
1. Underestimating / Overestimating
2. greed and lust for vengeance blind the perps to the obvious

Their Achilles heel Time and again

Underestimating / Overestimating

"Something in it for me"

Turnbull
We see in the Trilogy how greed and lust for vengeance blind the perps to the obvious
Extracts:

• Could Paulie seriously think he wouldn't be the prime suspect in setting up Vito?
• Did Carlo have any right to believe he could get away with setting up Sonny by beating up Connie for a second time?

Underestimating / Overestimating

Did anyone else notice that .......

The Last Woltz
I think one of the themes of the Trilogy (and GFII in particular) is people lying to themselves
They were all wrong and they were all doomed to suffer a violent death or the violent death of those closest to them

• Michael believes he can become legitimate while running the nation's top Mafia Family
• Kay tells herself that the Family will be legitimate within 5 years
• Roth thinks he can rule his empire forever
• And Fredo tells himself that he can take sides against the Family and somehow end up more powerful and respected

Lana
A few more, not quite in the same league! as yours though -

• Vito believes his no to Sollozzo drug deal and then sending Luca over to Tattaglias will find what they have under their fingernails
• Vito believes after the Baptism, Moe Greene, Carlo murders Michael can live a 'legitimate' life
• Woltz acts he is bigger than the Corleones and wakes up with his prized horse Khartoum's head
• Greene thinks he can slap a Corleone around, insult another Corleone and somehow keep the hotel
• Carlo thinks he can lure Sonny to his murder and somehow end up as Michael's right hand man in Nevada
• Turncoat Tessio believes he can set his Don up to be murdered and another Don will embrace him into their family

Kay thinks she can abort their unborn son and somehow he'd let her take the children from him

It is fleshed out in the book Tessio arranged the meeting over the phone

Hope this is the relevant emoji My first use of one!

• Connie thinks she can see her children on weekends, fly around the world with men who don't even care about her and use her like a whore! and Michael somehow would fund her junket on The Queen with her latest husband to be....

• Merle thinks his 'future' brother-in-law Michael would fund Merle's freeloading extravagant Lifestyle with his sister

It concerns me, too. Is it okay, Mike, if I stay? his passage on The Queen

Why kill Michael before he moved to Nevada. they are fleeing

Good question, Capri! And--miraculously--one that hasn't been asked before.
I think the answer is in this bit of dialog from the fishtank scene:
MICHAEL (seated on a chair)

After we make the move to Nevada -- you can break off from the Corleone Family and go

on your own. After we make the move to Nevada.

CLEMENZA

How long with that be?

MICHAEL

Six months.

TESSIO (to Don Vito)

Forgive me, Godfather, but with you gone -- me and Pete'll come under Barzini's thumb

sooner or later...

Sure. Vito, old, in declining health, didn't have long to live, Michael, in Nevada, would be preoccupied with building his "legitimate" businesses; and Tessio underestimated him, If Tess and Clem really did form their own "family" out of the Corleones, they'd either split. it in half, or fight each other for sole possession--either way weakening the entire enterprise. They'd be sitting ducks for Barzini.

I believe Barzini didn't want to move against Michael while Vito was alive because he still feared Vito's cunning and political influence--killing Michael would rally him and his still loyal legions. Barz might have won that war, but it was easier just to wait for Vito to die. With Vito gone, Barzini figured he had a green light to kill Michael. Why? Doing so, right after Vito's death, would deal a body blow to Tess and Clem, improving his negotiating position and inevitably causing one or both to come to terms with him, Barz may have been making plans to move in on Nevada gambling. The Corleones were the big power in gambling and already had a toehold in Vegas through their investment in Moe Greene's hotel. By eliminating Michael, he'd have a freer hand to move on Nevada gambling.

True Turnbull same as Michael killing all the other Family Heads

My two cents worth!
Tess and Clem already had their own separate operation
So I reckon, they would just rebrand as their own "family" and continue as before, independent but a la Michael/Clemenza/Tessio

I was under the impression, any Sonny's business was absorbed into their operation and there was no other business out of the Corleones for them to split it in half, or fight each other for sole possession

We'd discussed in Vito's vs Michael's caporegime thread Barzini can't afford “to wait until Vito died [not knowing when?!]
The longer Barzini waited as Tattaglia said at the Commission meeting “as time goes by and his [Vito's] position becomes stronger....

As regards Nevada gambling, I reckon it was Barzini who thought he already had a toehold in Vegas through Moe Greene's hotel with whom he'd already made a deal

Eh gosh -- imagine the nerve of the gigolo Also wanting a drink

I started a thread a long time ago that Tessio's treason was a stroke of good luck for Michael. He'd never have let them "form their own family"--there has never been a co-Donship for reasons I cited above. Also, he needed to hold onto New York as muscle to deter gangsters from threatening his Nevada interests; for monetary tribute paid to him; and synergy--NYC's high rollers as fodder for junkets to his legal Nevada casinos. Clemenza would have gone along with it, but not Tess.


That was Tattaglia's fear, not Barzini's. Vito successfully played weak after the Commission meeting, and never let on that he knew "It was Barzini all along."


That was Moe Greene's fantasy--"I tolk to Barzini. I can [emphasis added]make a deal with him and still keep my hotel." There's no evidence he made a deal with Barzini. I doubt he "tolked" to Barzini--he may have been bluffing Michael.

For all Barzini knew, Vito, could have been dying of the same five shots for twenty years!

My take, it is not quite “co-Donship”
Both Clemenza and Tessio upgrade, their own already separate caporegime to “their own "family" and continue separate as before but independent and a la Michael / Pentangeli

If Tessio had succeeded
Extracts:
Tattaglia was right!

Barzini wait for Vito to die fatal mistake He was sitting duck for Michael

Why wouldn't Tess have gone along with upgrade, to “their own "family"

Both Tess and Clem wanted to form their own family or families. But since there's no such thing as a co-Donship, they'd either have had to split up the "Olive Oil Busness" between them, or fought it out with only one survivor. Either scenario would have made Barzini stronger.

As we saw, Michael wanted to continue to ,NYC, and Clemenza went along with it. Tessio never would have. The fishtank scene showed that he had no confidence in Michael. That's why he betrayed Michael. Also, the novel tells us that Vito kept Tess on a long leash--unlike Clemenza, he didn't live at The Mall, and Vito liked it that some outside the family thought Tessio was an independent operator--the better to hide Vito's true strength. No way was Tess going to accept being under Michael's long-distance thumb from Neada.

I too reckon it is not quite “co-Donship”
They were already separate and independent of each other with their own separate territories
They would just continue the same but now as Don Clemenza and Don Tessio with their own separate Family


I reckon Tessio would have gone along with it Just go along, everything will be alright, Sally

While his lack of confidence in Michael only because Barzini's people chisel his territory and he did nothing about it, not up to the job, he still should have been a friend to Michael, and did as he said
No doubt Disloyalty no excuse irrespective that he had no confidence in Michael. Tessio's fatal mistake

1. Isn't the "Olive Oil Busness" just a front to launder their money?
2. Did Clemenza live at The Mall? I thought he lived away with his wife in their own house

Don't know Turnbull Moe Greene made his bones when Michael was going out with cheerleaders!

He knew what was going on here, having done his homework, some not so secret
1. First of all, you're all done.
2. The Corleone Family don't even have that kind of muscle anymore.
3. The Godfather's sick, right?
4. You're getting chased out of New York by Barzini and the other Families
5. You think you can come to my hotel and take over? --
6. I talked to Barzini -- I can make a deal with him, and still keep my hotel!

The head-strong, talking loud, saying stupid things Greene, may have been bluffing Michael but on the surface, he can make a deal with Barzini and still keep my hotel! -- not impossible.

Barzini thinking he was in the catbird seat, was talking to any one and everyone He talked to Carlo, Tessio, why not Greene?

I don't think so. Per the book, Genco had a house on the Mall.

Thank you Pete So Mall is only for the consiglieres Genco and later Tom not the caporegimes!

Clemenza's wife telling Clemenza “Don't forget the cannoli”! as Paulie was driving off from Clemenza's house, to his own murder

I, of course will never break omertà! nor betray my Don!!

Sure thing “Tessio's treason” is untenable under any circumstances and there is no excuse whatsoever for what Tessio did – setting his Don up to be murdered

Vito's Rise and Rise

Tessio was stuck between the proverbial rock and hard place, seemingly -

• getting no help nor support from the Corleones
• Michael jetting off to Nevada
• abandoning Tessio [and Clemenza] with nothing to build on

Fish tank sceneWas the above Vito's empty promise carrot same as Roth's Donship to Fredo?

Don Clemenza, Don Tessio, separate and independent of each other and a la Michael / Pentangeli for monetary tribute and muscle

Besides it makes sense to me! I believe, Michael would have retained control of the "Olive Oil Business" the front to launder his nefarious stuff [if any!] which both Clemenza and Tessio need to launder their criminal proceeds It could work because they need each other

I, of course will never break omertà! nor betray my Don!! Me too

Did Sonny and Michael chide! non-Sicilian Tom that he was not a wartime consiglieri….

Tom may not be a Corleone by blood or name but Tom was indeed among others - callous, cunning, ruthless, not averse to murder etc. – when required just as much Mafia as the Corleones themselves

• Geary set up - Tom to Geary:

and Pentangeli suicide