Since the murder of Sadat Egypt's military leaders also want no resurrection of Muslim Brotherhood of which Hamas is an offshoot.
The PIJ also.

The Palestine Islamic Jihad (PIJ) is a Sunni Islamist militant group seeking to establish an Islamist Palestinian state that is committed to the destruction of Israel. It is the second-largest militant group in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, founded in 1979 as an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. The group has drawn inspiration from the Iranian revolution and receives support from Iran, Syria, and Lebanese Hizballah.

It will be the end of Netanyahu.

Israeli anger at Netanyahu erupts at hospital bedsides

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/18/israeli-anger-at-netanyahu-erupts-at-hospital-bedsides.html

Many protests turned ugly in Europe, remember France was in the early years one of Israel's biggest supporters, later the US.

ISRAEL–HAMAS WAR (IRAN UPDATES)
Oct 17, 2023 - ISW Press

This page collects the refocused Iran Updates that ISW began publishing on October 7, 2023. ISW and The Critical Threats Project (CTP) refocused the Iran Update to cover the Israel–Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance.


We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision making of the Iranian regime. ISW and CTP at the American Enterprise Institute provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.



Iran Update, October 17, 2023

Ashka Jhaveri, Johanna Moore, Annika Ganzeveld, Brian Carter, and Nicholas Carl

Key Takeaways

1. Palestinian militias continued indirect fire into Israel on October 17, attacking civilian and military targets.
2. The rate of small arms clashes between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants in the West Bank remained low after peaking on October 13.
3. Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh called for mobilization in the West Bank following an explosion at a hospital in Gaza.
4. CTP-ISW recorded 10 attacks from Lebanon into Israeli territory on October 17, including seven against military targets. LH activity on Israel’s northern border creates opportunities for further operations against Israel.
5. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reiterated what other senior Iranian officials are saying about the Hamas-Israel war during a speech.
6. Senior IRGC commanders are framing Hamas’ al Aqsa Flood operation as a prelude to future attacks on Israel.

Gaza Strip

Palestinian militias continued indirect fire into Israel on October 17. [/b ]The al Qassem Brigades—Hamas’ militant wing—claimed responsibility for 26 mortar and rocket attacks.[1] Saraya al Quds—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—claimed responsibility for another five rocket attacks.[2] The al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades—the militant wing of Fatah—claimed two mortar attacks into Israel from the Gaza Strip.[3] CTP-ISW recorded reports of five unclaimed mortar and rocket strikes as well. This rate of attacks is consistent with the rate that CTP-ISW observed on October 16.

CTP-ISW recorded one report of an infiltration from the Gaza Strip near Zikim on October 17.[4] An IDF helicopter killed two individuals on the beach.[5] CTP-ISW cannot independently confirm this report.

[b]Palestinian militias are hitting civilian and military targets in their indirect fire attacks. Hamas is continuing to target civilians throughout Israel from the Gaza Strip, including in Tel Aviv, Beersheba, and Haifa.[6] Hamas targeted Israeli forces with mortars and rockets near Sufa, Mufakim, Eshkol, and Kfar Azza in five separate attacks on October 17.[7] Palestinian militias are also continuing to target southern Israeli towns that the IDF has evacuated and designated as military zones. Ninety percent of Sderot’s civilians have departed the city, for instance, which Israel designated a militarized zone on October 16.[8] The IDF deployed units to this area in recent days, suggesting that the militias seek to target IDF military assets in addition to civilians.

IDF airstrikes into the Gaza Strip have killed several senior Hamas officials since the war began on October 7. Three senior IDF officers told the New York Times that the goal of Israeli operations is to “wipe out the top political and military hierarchy of Hamas.”[10] Multiple separate IDF airstrikes into the Gaza Strip killed Hamas’ Shura Council chief, the al Qassem Brigades Central Brigade commander, and at least two relatives of Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh on October 17.[11] Israel has conducted at least 10 airstrikes against senior Hamas, PIJ, and other militia officials since October 8.

West Bank

The rate of small arms clashes between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants in the West Bank remained low on October 17 after peaking on October 13. CTP-ISW recorded seven small arms clashes in the West Bank and five demonstrations in support of the Palestinian resistance and denouncing Israeli attacks into the Gaza Strip. Hamas remains committed to expanding the war to the West Bank.

Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh called for mobilization in the West Bank following an explosion at a hospital in the Gaza Strip on October 17, which may increase the rate of clashes in the coming days.[14] The IDF said that PIJ conducted a rocket attack that failed and hit the active hospital.[15] The Hamas-run Health Ministry contrastingly claimed that an Israeli airstrike hit the hospital. The explosion has reportedly killed hundreds.[16] ISW cannot independently verify the cause of the explosion or the exact death toll.[17] The Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades claimed to attack IDF positions in the West Bank in response to the explosion.

LH-affiliated Al Mayadeen claimed on October 16 that the IDF’s focus on the West Bank throughout 2023 contributed to its intelligence failure ahead of Hamas’ October 7 attack.[19] The report said that IDF redeployments from southern Israel to the West Bank drew IDF attention away from the Gaza Strip. It also alleged that Hamas deceived Israel by not interfering in conflict between Israel and other Gaza-based Palestinian militias throughout the year.

Senior Iranian regime officials, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, have called for the arming of Palestinian militias in the West Bank since August 2022, as CTP-ISW has reported extensively.[20] These calls have coincided with an uptick in kinetic activity in the West Bank during the past year.[21] IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami previously specified during an interview with the Supreme Leader’s website in August 2022 that Iran seeks to arm Palestinian groups’ ”infantry” in the West Bank to conduct more ground operations against Israeli security forces and stoke unrest.[22] The Iranian focus on the West Bank in addition to several reports noting the flow of weapons into the territory this year via Iran‘s proxy network in the Levant suggests that the West Bank remains a threat to Israel.

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas canceled a meeting scheduled for October 18 with US President Joe Biden and other leaders in the Middle East, according to a senior Palestinian official.
Abbas withdrew from the summit to protest the explosion at the hospital in the Gaza Strip.[24] The Palestinian Authority was founded in 1994 and is the governing body that oversees the West Bank.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

CTP-ISW recorded 10 attacks from Lebanon into Israeli territory on October 17, including seven against military targets Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) claimed responsibility for all 10 attacks on military and civilian targets along the Israel-Lebanon border, including an anti-tank missile attack on Metulla that wounded two IDF soldiers.[26] This is the third consecutive day that LH has targeted Metulla. The IDF called for civilians to immediately evacuate Metulla and other areas along the Lebanese border.[27] The IDF separately killed at least two LH militants attempting to plant explosive devices near Hanita along the Israel-Lebanon border on October 17.

LH activity on Israel’s northern border creates opportunities for further operations against Israel. LH has targeted dozens of Israeli military targets in northern Israel since October 7, including Israeli border outposts, surveillance, military equipment, and barracks. CTP-ISW previously reported that Iran and elements of its Axis of Resistance, including LH, are preparing for the Hamas-Israel war to expand into a regional conflict.[29] Israeli officials have furthermore reported on LH efforts to transport weapons to Lebanon via the Damascus and Aleppo international airports.[30] The IDF has conducted three airstrikes on those airports in recent days to disrupt possible Iranian military transfers to the Levant.


Iran and Axis of Resistance

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reiterated what other senior Iranian officials are saying about the Hamas-Israel war during a speech on October 17. Khamenei echoing these talking points demonstrates his support for them and signals to the rest of the Iranian regime that these are the official positions.

• Khamenei warned that the continuation of Israeli “crimes” against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip will make resistance groups “impatient” and that “no one will be able to stop [these groups].”[31] “Resistance groups” is the term that Iranian officials use to describe the proxy and partner militias that Iran sponsors throughout the Middle East. Khamenei’s warning resembles similar warnings from Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian since October 9. Abdollahian posted on X (Twitter) on October 16 that the expansion of the Hamas-Israel war to “other fronts” is becoming “inevitable.”[32] Abdollahian separately warned that resistance groups may take “preemptive” measures against Israel during an interview on Iranian state television on October 16.[33]
• Khamenei also accused the United States of determining Israel’s “current policy” vis-a-vis the Gaza Strip, echoing claims from Iranian officials and media since October 13 that the United States is playing a direct role in the Hamas-Israel war.[34] IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency, for instance, recirculated Lebanese Hezbollah’s assertion that the United States is the “real owner” of the Hamas-Israel war and that Israel is “merely implementing American decisions.”[35] Tasnim similarly alleged on October 16 that American military commanders are overseeing some operations against the Gaza Strip because Israeli officers are suffering from “mental and psychological confusion.”[36] Abdollahian accused the United States of encouraging Israel to conduct more attacks against civilians in the Gaza Strip during a phone call with EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell on October 17.[37] Members of Iran’s Axis of Resistance—including Lebanese Hezbollah and the Bashar al Assad regime—have criticized the US role in the conflict as well.

Senior IRGC commanders are framing Hamas’ al Aqsa Flood operation as a prelude to future attacks on Israel. Former IRGC Commander Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari framed the attack as a “warmup” to prepare and train for future operations against Israel in an interview on October 15.[39] IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami similarly described Hamas’ operation as the “first stage” of Israel’s “hasty collapse.”[40] IRGC Deputy Commander Brigadier General Ali Fadavi added on October 17 that the Axis of Resistance will inflict a new “shockwave” on Israel if it continues its “atrocities” against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/israel%E2%80%93hamas-war-iran-updates

I see that. It seems they're biding their time...for a variety of reason; the hostages, the exodus of Palestinians from Gaza, and military strategy as well.

True, “haste makes waste”


Pentagon says missiles from Yemen were ‘potentially’ aimed at Israel, ‘posed threat’
By AP

Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, Pentagon press secretary, tells reporters that the USS Carney, a Navy destroyer in the northern Red Sea, intercepted three land attack cruise missiles and several drones that were launched by Houthi forces in Yemen. He says they were shot down over the water.

“We cannot say for certain what these missiles and drones were targeting, but they were launched from Yemen heading north along the Red Sea, potentially towards targets in Israel,” Ryder says in a Pentagon briefing.

Ryder says the missiles were shot down because they “posed a potential threat” based on their flight profile, adding that the US is prepared to do whatever is needed “to protect our partners and our interests in this important region.” He says the US is still assessing what the target was.

The western media were very quick to say 500 deaths and blamed Israel right away. pure propaganda by Hamas !

European intelligence source tells AFP: A maximum of 50 killed in Gaza hospital !
Israel has denied it was responsible for the explosion, providing evidence that it was caused by a misfired Islamic Jihad rocket aimed at Israel, which has been accepted by the UK, US and many others as credible.

VDL: Iran sanctions needed as it's equipping Hamas
POLITICSChristian Baha / NP3 hours ago
1 min read

EPA-EFE/RAJAT GUPTA
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen claimed on Thursday that 93% of all the equipment Hamas is using is supplied by Iran and that Tehran needs to be sanctioned because of this.

Speaking at an event at the Hudson Institute, von der Leyen noted that the European Union and its allies have already introduced a series of sanctions against Iran but that they need to "catch up" and "close loopholes" in order to ensure there is no circumvention of these measures.

The EU official also accused Tehran of wanting to "fuel the fire of chaos" in the MIddle East and warned the threat of a "regional spillover" of the Israel-Hamas conflict is "real" but noted an "escalation is not inevitable." She insisted the Eu and its allies "stand with Israel" and need to take action to prevent the "horror" from spreading.

That was a good move by the U.S. fleet. And it showed just one iota of our capabilities if we so chose to "intervene."

Dutch travel advice Lebanon to red: do not go there or leave the country

The travel advice for all of Lebanon is now red. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs advises people not to travel to Lebanon. The ministry also advises people to leave Lebanon as soon as possible if it is safe to do so.
Previously, the color code for the country was orange (travel only if necessary), and red (do not go there) in border areas.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs indicates that the unpredictable developments between Israel and the Palestinian Territories have increased tensions in Lebanon. "Rocket attacks and shelling are being carried out from Israel and Lebanon in the border area. It is unpredictable whether this violence will spread to other parts of Lebanon."

I think Biden convinced Israel to delay its Gaza invasion to "give diplomacy a chance." Biden's moral and political priority is to rescue American hostages (Israeli hostages, too), which is why he dispatched Blinken on his shuttle diplomacy mission among so-called "moderate" Arab leaders. Netanyahu probably agreed to the delay because all the hostages would be killed the moment an invasion was launched, and because he needs American might (those two aircraft carrier task forces) to deter Hezbollah and Iran from opening a second front, which would badly strain Israeli resources.

It's been pretty well established by now that the hospital rocket was launched by Hamas ally Palestinian Islamic Jihad, not Israel; that it landed in the hospital parking lot and did not demolish the hospital (although the hospital was damaged); and that the death toll is more like 100 to 200, not 500 as claimed by Hamas. But, it was a "gift" to Hamas, giving them more dead Palestinians to blame on Israel. It also forced the "moderate" Arab leaders to back out of a summit conference Biden requested. Big victory for Hamas because the world will alwlays blame Israel for everything and anything bad.

Blinken probably had established at least a framework for an agreement with the moderates before they backed out--Biden wouldn't have agreed to go to the summit if he had to start negotiating from scratch. That framework might still be on the table if the moderates cool off and come back. But, unless Israel can utterly destroy Hamas, they'll have suffered a major defeat--even if one surviving Hamas fighter is photographed waving his AK-47 on top of a pile of rubble that was once Gaza city, every Arab and enemy of Israel will believe that they won a "great victory."

Iran's 'Axis Of Resistance': A Network Designed To Create Chaos, Fight Tehran's Enemies

As fighting intensifies between Palestinian militant group Hamas and Israel, Iran has been increasingly vocal about the prospect of additional firepower entering the fray to score a victory for what Tehran calls the "axis of resistance" against Israel.

The axis, refined by the Islamic republic over the last four decades, is a loose-knit network of proxies, Tehran-backed militant groups, and allied state actors who play an important role in Iran's strategy to oppose the West, Arab foes, and, primarily, Israel.

Active in the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and elsewhere, the network allows Iran to create chaos in enemy territory, while allowing it to maintain a position of plausible deniability.

In the case of the latest conflict involving Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza, the stronger the Israeli response and the greater the blowback by Israel's Shi'ite and Sunni enemies in the region, the better it is for Iran, experts say.

It is a strategy that dates back to before the 1979 Islamic Revolution, according to experts, but was honed and rebranded as the axis of resistance by the Quds Force, the elite overseas arm of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).

"Although a new term, ‘axis of resistance' describes an old phenomenon: any individual or group willing to fight Iran's wars in return for funding, arms, military training, and intelligence support," Ali Alfoneh, senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, told RFE/RL in written comments.

But while Iran openly positions itself as the leading voice of the network as it calls for global resistance against Israel and the West, "the Quds Force avoids micromanagement and provides the proxies with some maneuvering room," Alfoneh said.

This relative autonomy, which at times has even seen proxies and partners work against Tehran's regional interests, makes it difficult to pin blame directly on Iran.

"If there is any kind of kinetic retaliation, your proxy, your partner absorbs the retaliation, and if your adversary wants to widen the scope, they have a hard time politically connecting the dots to do that," Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank, told RFE/RL.

'Successful Proxy Strategy'

The October 7 assault on Israel carried out by the Sunni militant group Hamas was a case in point, with Iran lauding the attack that killed more than 1,400 Israelis and triggered retaliatory Israeli strikes on Gaza that have so far killed more than 3,700 people and unleashed a devastating humanitarian crisis.

But despite Iran's longstanding support of Hamas -- which Alfoneh said is historically closer to Sunni Arab states and is for the most part funded by Qatar -- Israel and the West have not been able to directly tie the assault to Iran.

"When assessing the connective tissue between Iran and Hamas, we can't forget that the desire for Iran to disguise its own hand plays into the Islamic republic's own successful proxy strategy," Taleblu said. "The fact that some folks are having a hard time finding an immediate go order, or a very clear green light, is the success of the proxy strategy."

The axis of resistance is part of Iran's attempts to export the Twelver Jafari School of Shi'a Islam, which was named as Iran's official religion after 1979, and “it’s kind of messianic vision for what the Middle East would look like," Taleblu explained.

"This ideology only has resonance when the Middle East is in chaos, and the Islamic republic is an expert in managing chaos," he added.

The U.S. assassination in 2020 of Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani, who was seen as the architect of the axis of resistance and held great influence over its members, injected an element of chaos within the ranks of the network itself.

But while it presented challenges, it was not enough to disrupt the Quds Force or break up the axis.

"The Quds Force is a highly institutionalized military organization and the assassination of Major-General Soleimani had no impact on the performance of the organization," Alfoneh said.

The axis has continued its operations through Hamas and the Iran-backed Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza, sworn Israel enemy and Iranian proxy Lebanese Hizballah, and Iran-backed Shi’ite militias in Iraq known as the Popular Mobilization Force.

In Syria, the IRGC has deployed troops to aid government forces supporting President Bashar al-Assad in the Syrian civil war, and in Yemen Iran has championed the Huthis, which has been battling a military alliance led by Iran's regional rival Saudi Arabia.

At times, some of these groups have flexed their independence from Iran and acted against Tehran's interest.

Alfoneh recalled Hizballah's kidnapping of Israeli border guards in 2006, which he said, "resulted in a devastating war that was much more problematic, since it was contrary to Iran's overall strategy of using Hizballah as a deterrent against Israel."

Major Differences

Major differences were observed between Hamas and Iran during the Syrian conflict as the Palestinian militants refused to come to the aid of Assad, a key Tehran ally.

And the political rise of some groups, including in Iraq and Hamas in Gaza, has led some to distance themselves from Iran, at least rhetorically, to retain their domestic legitimacy.

Hamas has insisted that it alone was behind its multipronged assault on Israel, and that Iran and Hizballah had no role. Hizballah has in recent days exchanged fire with Israel across the border in the biggest escalation of violence since their 2006 war. Israel has accused Hizballah of carrying out the attacks "under Iranian instruction."

The Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which also has a presence in Lebanon, is also believed to have mounted a cross-border attack on Israel on October 10.

In Iraq, sources told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda that Iranian officials met with the heads of pro-Iranian Shi’ite militias after the October 7 attack on Israel.

Radio Farda has since reported that Shi’ite militias in Iraq have created a joint operational headquarters aimed at supporting the operation of Palestinian militant groups against Israel.

While Iran did engage different proxies in joint operations in Syria, Alfoneh of the Arab Gulf States Institute told RFE/RL: "In general, Iran prefers to preserve a degree of compartmentalization so intelligence leaks from one proxy do not compromise the entire proxy network."

A Strategic Victory?

In turn, Israel’s military reaction and the United States’ diplomatic and military support for Israel following the Hamas assault and the threat of the involvement of other members of the axis of resistance, can be seen as a strategic victory for Iran.

"The fact that the U.S. has to send such overt conventional military hardware [to Israel] is being seen as a win in Tehran, for them to have to deter a nonstate actor like Lebanese Hizballah," said Taleblu of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

"This goes to show you how much Iran's proxies and their hybrid and conventional and asymmetric military capabilities [have grown] over the past few decades."

For its part, Hizballah claimed on October 18 that it was "thousands of times stronger" than it was during its last war with Israel, highlighting the possibility that the axis overall is more formidable in terms of firepower and recruitment than ever.

But Alfoneh said the strength of the axis, coming as Iran has called for an expanded alliance against Israel, is "not important."

"As long as the smaller and more expendable proxies such as Hamas can poke a hole in Israel's Iron Dome and demonstrate Israel's vulnerability, and as long as the more valuable proxies such as Hizballah can stay out of the war and provide Iran with an effective deterrence against Israeli bombardment of Iran's nuclear facilities, Iran is perfectly happy," Alfoneh said.

Taleblu said, despite Iran's effort to distance itself from a possible broader conflict involving its proxies and the militant groups that make up the axis of resistance, it is important to not let Tehran hide behind a shield of plausible deniability.

"It's imperative to constantly hold the patron accountable, and not just the proxy," Taleblu said. "Every time you hold only the proxy accountable, the patron will fight to live another day."

With reporting by RFE/RL's Radio Farda

No word from Meyer this week, hope he is ok.

Yeah he still didn't know if he would be send to the border with Lebanon or Gaza.

The USA is key in this conflict also Ukraine war the Americans are still the only superpower in the world !

IRAN UPDATE, OCTOBER 20, 2023
Oct 20, 2023 - ISW Press

Download the PDF








Iran Update, October 20, 2023

Johanna Moore, Ashka Jhaveri, Annika Ganzeveld, Kathryn Tyson, Amin Soltani and Brian Carter

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments and in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Key Takeaways:

1. Palestinian militias continued indirect fire from the Gaza Strip into Israel on October 20. Hamas also released two American hostages held in Gaza, marking the first time Hamas has released any hostages since its October 7 attack into Israel.
2. Clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli security forces in the West Bank increased following Hamas calls for protests on October 18. The Israel-Hamas War may be driving Palestinian militia coordination in the West Bank.
3. Iranian-backed militants targeted US forces stationed at Baghdad International Airport (BIAP) and al Harir Air Base on October 20, marking the third consecutive day of attacks against US forces in the Middle East. Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have threatened to continue attacks on US forces in the Middle East.

Gaza Strip

Palestinian militias continued indirect fire from the Gaza Strip into Israel on October 20. The al Qassem Brigades—Hamas' militant wing—claimed ten rocket, mortar, and drone attacks. Saraya al Quds—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad—claimed responsibility for another seven rocket attacks. This rate of attacks is consistent with the rates that CTP-ISW has observed in recent days. Both groups continue to frame these attacks as being in response to Israeli “massacres” against civilians.

The al Qassem Brigades claimed responsibility for the first armed drone attack since October 15, which destroyed an Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) tank.[1] The al Qassem Brigades released a propaganda video and two photographs on October 20 of its drones and drone attacks and threatened further attacks.[2] The al Qassem Brigades has used these drones to strike IDF soldiers and infrastructure in attacks since October 7.

Hamas released two American hostages held in Gaza, marking the first time Hamas has released any hostages since its October 7 attack into Israel. Hamas military spokesperson Abu Ubaida released a statement on October 20 claiming that it had released the hostages after Qatari mediation efforts.[4] Ubaida also said that the hostage release was in response to US President Joe Biden‘s “false allegations” about the group during Biden’s address on October 19.[5] Hamas continues to hold over 200 other hostages.

IDF airstrikes continue to kill Hamas leadership and operatives in Gaza. The IDF killed senior Hamas engineer Mahmoud Zavih on October 20.[6] The IDF reported that Zavih was responsible for weapons production for Hamas' military wing, the al Qassem Brigades.[7] The IDF said the leader “exchanged knowledge with other terrorists in the Middle East,” suggesting the leader supported the weapons production effort of other Axis of Resistance groups in the region.

The IDF is degrading Hamas’ naval capabilities which Hamas could use to target Israeli gas rigs and other infrastructure, according to an Israeli journalist.[8] An IDF airstrike on October 19 killed a member of Hamas’ naval branch in Gaza who the IDF claimed was plotting maritime attacks.[9] The IDF also killed another member of Hamas’ naval branch in Gaza who participated in Hamas’ attack into Israel on October 7.[10] Hamas has worked to develop its naval capabilities in recent years. The IDF reported in 2021 that Hamas for the first time developed unmanned sea vessels to launch attacks in Israel.

West Bank

Clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli security forces in the West Bank increased following Hamas calls for protests the day before. CTP-ISW recorded 17 distinct clashes and 12 demonstrations in the West Bank on October 20. Many demonstrators condemned the Israeli raid on the Nour Shams refugee camp on October 19 where six Palestinians and one Israeli officer died.[12] Unspecified militants detonated an IED targeting an IDF convoy at the camp overnight.[13] Hamas called for protests in support of the Gaza Strip across all cities and towns in the West Bank on October 20, as part of Hamas’ effort to expand fighting against Israel to the West Bank.

• Palestinians held Hamas and Fatah flags at a demonstration in Hebron and Yatta condemning Israeli attacks and in support of Gaza. The IDF dropped leaflets in Hebron warning it will find and catch anyone who identifies themselves as a member of Hamas.[17] Hamas chairman Khaled Mashaal called on Fatah to defeat Israel together.[18] The Hamas and Fatah signed a reconciliation deal on October 13 after having been at odds for more than a decade.[19]
• Hamas claimed that al Qassem Brigades fought in the Nour Shams camp on October 19.[20] The PIJ-affiliated Tulkarm Brigade said that several Palestinian groups supported them during the fighting.[21] This is the first coordinated small arms clash that a Palestinian militia has claimed in the West Bank since October 7.
• Hamas continued to message that the resistance in the West Bank and Gaza must work together. Hamas’ Political Bureau leader Ismail Haniyeh delivered a speech on October 9 praising the mass popular movement in support of Gaza over the past few days, noting that Israeli aggression extends to the West Bank.[22] Coordinated Palestinian resistance in the West Bank supports Hamas’ stated objectives to expand the war to the West Bank.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Attacks from Lebanon into northern Israel risk further escalation between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah (LH). LH conducted 18 attacks targeting civilian and military infrastructure in northern Israel on October 20, which is consistent with its rate of attacks since October 15.[30] CTP-ISW recorded between three and five attacks daily between October 12 and October 14.[31] CTP-ISW has recorded between nine and 20 attacks targeting northern Israel daily since October 15.[32]

The IDF intercepted an unspecified drone crossing the Israel-Lebanon border near the Upper Galilee region on October 20.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Iranian-backed militants targeted US forces stationed at Baghdad International Airport (BIAP) and al Harir Air Base on October 20, marking the third consecutive day of attacks against US forces in the Middle East.[34] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq - an umbrella group of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias - targeted US forces stationed at Al Harir Air Base in Iraqi Kurdistan on October 20 in a drone attack.[35] It claimed to have launched two drones targeting the air base and reported that both drones “hit their target.”[36] This is the fourth attack claimed by the Islamic Resistance of Iraq during the last three days.[37] Militants from the Islamic Resistance in Iraq targeted Al Harir Air Base and Ain al Asad in Iraq and the al Tanf Garrison and Conoco Mission Support Site in Syria on October 18 and 19.

Unidentified militants targeted US forces stationed at BIAP in a rocket attack on October 20.[39] Iraqi Security forces found the rocket launch site in Jihad neighborhood, which is adjacent to the airport.[40] The counter-rocket artillery mortar (C-RAM) system at BIAP engaged two rockets, destroying one.[41] This is the first attack on BIAP since October 7. No group has claimed the attack on BIAP at the time of publication.

Iranian-backed militias have conducted eight attacks over the past three days across the Middle East in a multi-theater escalation against the United States and Israel. Iranian-backed Iraqi militias threatened to conduct attacks on US forces in the region if the United States intervened in the Israel-Hamas war, as CTP-ISW previously reported.[42] Iranian-backed Iraqi groups are currently behaving as though the United States has crossed this red line. Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri warned on October 19 that continued Israeli actions in the Gaza Strip could force “other actors,” including “resistance groups,” to engage in the conflict, echoing previous regime rhetoric about the possibility of a conflict expanding.

Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have threatened to continue attacks on US forces in the Middle East. Tura News, affiliated with Iranian-backed Kataib Hezbollah, circulated a warning of additional attacks on US forces in Iraq “in the next few days.”[44] Iranian-backed Badr Organization released a promotional video repeating the group’s threat to attack the United States if it intervenes in the Israel-Hamas war.

Ashab al Kahf released a statement on October 20 threatening to conduct improvised explosive device (IED) attacks on US forces.[46] Ashab al Kahf is a member of the Islamic Resistance of Iraq which claimed the one-way drone attack on US forces stationed at Ain al Asad Air Base on October 18.[47] Ashab al Kahf claimed 3 IED attacks targeting US logistics convoys in Iraq between July and August 2023.

IRGC-QF Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani warned Syrian President Bashar al Assad during his visit to Syria on 15 October that Iran intends to use Syria as a second front if the Israel-Hamas war expands geographically.[49] The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) began directing militias to the southwestern Syrian border immediately after the Hamas-led attack into Israel on October 7. Iranian officials have since messaged that a multi-front war against Israel is becoming more likely.

• Najafi reported that Ghaani established a joint operations room in Syria during his visit on October 15.[50] The IRGC will oversee this operations room, according to Iranian state-news journalist Mostafa Najafi.[51] An unspecified Iranian intelligence official said that Iran will start a “limited” ground operation from the Golan Heights and notably not from Lebanon if the situation escalates to protect LH.[52]
• Syrian opposition media reported on October 19 that the Axis of Resistance, in coordination with the Syrian regime, plan to surprise Israel and create a narrative in which the Axis represents the main resistance to Israel.[53] Iranian-backed militias are deployed along the southwestern Syrian border in Rif Dimashq and Daraa province.[54] CTP and ISW have tracked the IRGC and LH from Syria and Iraq deploying to the border of Syrian and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights since October 9.

Iranian-backed militias have relocated ammunition and equipment to residential areas in Deir ez Zor City and Hatla, Deir ez Zor Province on October 19 according to a report from anti-regime news outlet Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR).[55] According to local sources cited by SOHR, Iranian-backed militias began transferring weapons to residential areas in fear of a possible retaliation from US forces. The Islamic Resistance of Iraq targeted US forces stationed at al Tanf Garrison and Conoco Mission support site in eastern Syria on October 19, as CTP-ISW previously reported.[56] US forces have targeted Iranian-backed militia weapons storage facilities in Syria in retaliation for strikes on US positions in Syria previously, most notably during the last escalation cycle between the United States and militias in March 2023.

LH and Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) arrived in al Mayadin, Deir ez Zor Province, Syria on October 19. LH militants were transferred from Idlib Province, Rif Dimashq Province, and Hatla, Deir ez Zor Province.[58] Popular Mobilization Forces arrived in al Mayadin from Iraq the same day.

PMF supporters traveled to the Iraq-Jordan border near Trebil, Iraq to stage a sit-in in support of the Palestinian people.[60] Sadrist Movement leader Moqtada al Sadr called for Iraqis to hold a sit in on the border with Palestine and remain “until the siege is lifted.”[61] Jordanian authorities did not comment on any convoys traveling to the border; however, Jordanian security forces closed the al Karameh Border Crossing with the West Bank according to Iraqi Kurdistan-based Shafaq news.

Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) spokesperson Nasser Abu Sharif stated that the potential for normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia motivated Hamas’ October 7 attack during an Iranian conference on the Israel-Hamas war in Qom on October 20.[63] Sharif argued that the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia would have dealt a devastating blow to the Palestinian cause. He also mentioned that many unspecified intra-Palestinian issues also “justified” the Al Aqsa Flood operation. Sharif further claimed that LH Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah is awaiting a simple “phone call” from resistance leaders before attacking Israel, consistent with Iranian and Axis of Resistance rhetoric about the potential expansion of the conflict since October 13.[64] Sharif finally claimed that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has forbidden Palestinian groups from granting any concessions or retreating, consistent with CTP-ISW's previous assessment that the Palestinian resistance is preparing for a prolonged conflict with Israel.

Iranian Friday prayer leaders echoed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s recent claim that the United States is responsible for Israeli actions against the Gaza Strip during their sermons on October 20.Khamenei accused the United States of determining Israel’s “current policy” vis-à-vis the Gaza Strip during a speech on October 17, as CTP-ISW previously reported.[66] Mashhad Friday Prayer Leader Ahmad Alam ol Hoda emphasized that the United States, not Israel, is the “main perpetrator” of killings and bombings in the Gaza Strip.[67] Varamin Friday Prayer Leader Mohsen Mahmoudi similarly claimed that the United States is “the root of all Israeli crimes."[68] Pardis Friday Prayer Leader Hossein Hosseini asserted that Israel is carrying out attacks against women, children, and hospitals in the Gaza Strip “under the heads of American statesmen.”[69] This coordinated rhetoric from Friday prayer leaders suggests that Khamenei and his inner circle are directing this messaging campaign. Friday prayer leaders receive guidance for the content of their sermons from the Office of the Supreme Leader.

Iranian officials and media are criticizing US President Joe Biden’s October 18 visit to Israel and framing it as part of US-Israeli preparation for an Israeli ground invasion into the Gaza Strip. Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian described Biden’s visit as “provocative” during a meeting with his Lebanese counterpart Abdallah Bou Habib on the sidelines of the emergency Organization of Islamic Cooperation meeting in Jeddah on October 18.[70] Defense Minister Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Ashtiani similarly stated that Biden’s visit highlighted US plans to “complicate” the situation in the Middle East during a phone call with his Iraqi counterpart Thabet al Abbasi on October 20.

• State-run outlet IRNA claimed on October 20 that the purpose of Biden’s visit to Israel was to “strengthen” Israeli attacks against Hamas.[72] Qods Friday Prayer Leader Hamza Mohammadi claimed on October 20 that Biden gave the Israeli government “the green light” for a ground invasion into the Gaza Strip.[73] Regime outlets recirculated Western reporting on October 19 that Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Washington is “fully in support” of a ground invasion.

Iranian officials have begun comparing Israel to ISIS and Hitler after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu labeled Hamas as “ISIS” and “the new Nazis” on October 17.[75] Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian compared Israel to ISIS while claiming that Israel attacked a Greek Orthodox church in the Gaza Strip on October 20.[76] Iranian Chief Rabbi Younes Hamami Lalehzar separately stated that Israel cannot represent Judaism “just as ISIS cannot represent Islam” during an interview with English-language Press TV on October 20.[77] Passive Defense Organization Head Brigadier General Gholam Reza Jalali described Israel as “a new Hitler in the region” in a speech on October 20.[78] The above rhetoric is consistent with Iranian accusations since October 11 that Israel is committing war crimes and genocide against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.

Iranian media recirculated Western and Syrian reporting on the October 19 Iranian-backed militant attacks on US military assets. State-controlled Islamic Republic News Agency recirculated the sUS Defense Department’s announcement that it had intercepted several Houthi missiles and drones on October 19.[79] The Iran-backed Houthis launched at least three land-attack cruise missiles and eight drones “potentially” targeting Israel.[80] IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency recirculated Western and Syrian media reporting on Iranian-backed Iraqi militias targeting US forces at Ain al Asad Airbase, Anbar province, Iraq as well as the Conoco Mission Support Site in Syria.[81] The Islamic Resistance of Iraq fired three drones targeting the al Tanf Garrison, Syria and three one-way drones targeting Conoco Mission Support Site on October 19.[82] Iranian-backed Iraqi militias also launched an unspecified number of rockets targeting US forces at the Ain al Asad Airbase.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-20-2023

RIP

Soldier killed by Lebanon missile; Gallant: Hezbollah joined fighting, is paying price
Staff Sgt. (res.) Omer Balva, a dual Israeli-American citizen, flew from US to report for duty, was killed Friday night; 3 others hurt; defense minister meets with troops in north

https://www.timesofisrael.com/soldi...zbollah-joined-fighting-is-paying-price/

Three fronts now!


Israel-Gaza war: Israeli air strike hits West Bank refugee camp

IRAN UPDATE, OCTOBER 22, 2023
Oct 22, 2023 - ISW Press

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Iran Update, October 22, 2023
Brian Carter, Andie Parry, Amin Soltani, and Nicholas Carl

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.


Key Takeaways:


1. Palestinian militias continued attacks at their usual rate from the Gaza Strip into Israel. Palestinian militias increased their targeting of the Israel Defense Forces in these attacks, likely as part of their preparations to defend against a possible Israeli ground operation.
Clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces in the West Bank dropped by roughly half.
2. Iranian-backed militants, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted 17 attacks as part of an ongoing attack campaign against Israeli forces and assets.
3. Iranian leaders have reached a consensus approving limited cross-border Lebanese Hezbollah attacks into Israel, according to Reuters. This report and others indicate that Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah are coordinating a carefully calibrated escalation to draw Israeli attention away from the Gaza Strip.
4. The Israel Defense Forces Air Force conducted airstrikes on the Damascus and Aleppo international airport runways. The Israeli Foreign Affairs Ministry indicated that the airstrikes in Syria are part of an Israeli effort to prevent Iran from moving weapons into Syria and/or opening a front against Israel from there.
5. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani arrived in Syria to monitor Iranian-backed militias on the Israel-Syria border, according to Israeli media. Ghaani previously warned Syrian President Bashar al Assad that Iran intends to use Syria as a second front if the war expands.
6. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—conducted a one-way drone attack on US forces at Ain al Asad air base in Iraq, marking the fifth consecutive day of attacks targeting US force in the Middle East. These attacks are part of the Iranian-led effort to deter the United States from providing meaningful support to Israel.
7. The Houthi prime minister said that the Houthis will target Israeli ships in the Red Sea if Israel continues operations in the Gaza Strip after meeting with Palestinian militia officials in Sanaa, Yemen.


Gaza Strip


Palestinian militias continued attacks at their usual rate from the Gaza Strip into Israel on October 22. The al Qassem Brigades—Hamas’ militant wing—claimed responsibility for 12 direct and indirect fire attacks.[1] Saraya al Quds—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—claimed responsibility for another three rocket attacks.[2] This rate of attacks is consistent with the rate that CTP-ISW has observed in recent days.

Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip increased their targeting of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), likely as part of their preparations to defend against a possible Israeli ground operation. Palestinian militias targeted a greater proportion of military targets relative to their overall attacks than at any point since October 18, when the militias targeted IDF positions near the Gaza Strip 15 times.[3] Palestinian militias launched eight direct and indirect fire attacks targeting the IDF on October 22.[4] They also fired mortars and rockets targeting Israeli cities and towns seven times. Al Qassem Brigades fighters separately killed one Israeli soldier and wounded three others during a firefight within the Gaza Strip.[5] The IDF said that the Israeli forces were searching for the bodies of missing Israelis and preparing for Israel’s ground operation.


West Bank


Clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces in the West Bank dropped by roughly half on October 22. CTP-ISW recorded nine distinct clashes.[8] Al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade fighters clashed with Israeli forces in Qabatiya, close to Jenin, on October 22. The al Aqsa Martyrs‘ Brigade fighters used small arms and improvised explosive devices (IED) against Israeli forces.[9]

CTP-ISW recorded only two demonstrations in the West Bank on October 22, which is consistent with the number of demonstrations on October 21.[10] Hamas’ calls for protests in support of the Gaza Strip across the world did not generate increased protests in the West Bank.[11]

Israeli forces continued raids and arrests in the West Bank, arresting at least 46 Palestinians, including 27 active Hamas members and two PIJ military leaders, south of Jenin on October 22.


Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights


Iranian-backed militants, including Lebanese Hezbollah (LH), conducted 17 attacks as part of an ongoing attack campaign against IDF forces and assets on October 22. These attacks are consistent with the increased rate of Iranian-backed attacks into Israel since October 15. This campaign creates opportunities for additional Iranian-backed ground attacks into Israel and increases the risk of further escalation, as CTP-ISW previously noted.[14] LH militants fired surface-to-air missiles at an IDF helicopter, marking the first use of air defense in Lebanon against the IDF since the start of the war.[15] The IDF intercepted a drone crossing from Lebanon into Israel—the first attempted drone infiltration from Lebanon since October 20.[16] The majority of attacks from Lebanon used anti-tank guided missiles against IDF forces and positions.[17] Israeli forces struck five ATGM squads in southern Lebanon on October 22.

The Israeli Defense Ministry expanded the civilian evacuation zone along the Israel-Lebanon border to encompass 14 additional towns.[19] Israel previously evacuated towns within two kilometers of the border.[20]

Several Iranian-backed militias are participating in the attack campaign against Israeli forces from southern Lebanon. The al Qassem Brigades fired multiple barrages of rockets at northern Israeli towns on October 15 and 19.[21] Saraya al Quds claimed four of its fighters have died in southern Lebanon since October 7.[22] LH has almost certainly approved these attacks given the extent to which LH controls southern Lebanon and coordinates with the other Iranian-backed groups operating there.

Iranian leaders have reached a consensus approving limited cross-border LH attacks into Israel, according to Reuters.[23] Two LH-affiliated individuals also told Reuters that the LH military activity around northern Israel is meant to ”keep Israeli forces busy but not open a major new front.” CTP-ISW cannot verify the accuracy of this report. It is consistent, however, with the IDF spokesperson stating that Iran has instructed LH to escalate against Israel and thereby impose pressure on the IDF while it prepares for ground operations into the Gaza Strip.[24] These reports indicate that Iran and LH are coordinating a carefully calibrated escalation to draw Israeli attention away from the Gaza Strip.

The IDF Air Force conducted airstrikes on the Damascus and Aleppo international airport runways on October 22.[25] Israel previously conducted multiple airstrikes on Damascus and Aleppo international airports on October 12 and 14, disrupting critical nodes through which Iran funnels military equipment and personnel into the Levant.[26] A senior official at the Israeli Foreign Affairs Ministry indicated that the airstrikes in Syria are part of an Israeli effort to prevent Iran from moving weapons into Syria and/or opening a front against Israel from there.[27] The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has long used commercial airliners affiliated with the Iranian regime for military transports to Syria throughout the civil war there.

Unidentified militants conducted an indirect fire attack into the Golan Heights following the IDF airstrikes on the Damascus and Aleppo international airports, possibly as symbolic retaliation. Israeli forces intercepted the fire.[28] This is a consistent response pattern to Israeli airstrikes into Syria since the war began. Unidentified militants launched indirect fire into the Golan Heights following the previous airstrikes.

IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani arrived in Syria on October 21 to monitor Iranian-backed militias on the Israel-Syria border, according to Israeli media.[30] CTP-ISW cannot independently verify this report. Iranian-backed militias have concentrated in southern Lebanon and southwestern Syria in recent days as part of Iran-led preparations for the war to expand into a regional conflict.[31] An Iranian state-affiliated journalist previously claimed that Ghaani warned Syrian President Bashar al Assad on October 15 that Iran intends to use Syria as a second front if the Israel-Hamas war expands.[32] An unspecified Iranian intelligence official claimed that Iran would start a ”limited” ground operation from Syria into the Golan Heights and notably not from Lebanon if the situation escalates to protect LH.[33]

The rhetoric of the Lebanese prime minister and foreign minister diverged on the issue of Lebanon’s possible future involvement in the Israel-Hamas war. Prime Minister Najib Mikati expressed concern but indicated that the situation is returning to normal and that the Lebanese government is making every effort to keep harm away from Lebanon.[34] Lebanese Foreign Affairs Minister Abdallah Bou Habib contrastingly expressed concern about the outbreak of war in southern Lebanon based on Israeli actions in the Gaza Strip during an interview with al Jazeera.[35] Bou Habib called for a ceasefire but warned that Israel will in the event of a larger war erupting suffer far more losses than it did in the 2006 Lebanon-Israel war.


Iran and Axis of Resistance


The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—conducted a one-way drone attack on US forces at Ain al Asad air base in Iraq on October 22, marking the fifth consecutive day of attacks targeting US force in the Middle East.[36] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has claimed nine drone and rocket attacks targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria since October 18.[37] Four of those attacks targeted the Ain al Asad air base.[38] These attacks are part of the Iranian-led effort to deter the United States from providing meaningful support to Israel, as CTP-ISW previously assessed.[39] Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah threatened additional attacks against US positions on October 20.[40]

The Houthi prime minister said on October 22 that the Houthis will target Israeli ships in the Red Sea if Israel continues operations in the Gaza Strip after meeting with Palestinian militia officials in Sanaa, Yemen on October 21.[41] The Houthi prime minister also acknowledged on October 22 that the United States intercepted Houthi drones and missiles headed toward Israel over the Red Sea on October 19.[42] He claimed that some of the missiles and drones still hit their targets.[43] CTP-ISW has not observed any indications of a Houthi drone or missile strike within Israel, however. The Houthi prime minister is a southern Yemeni.[44] He is not part of the Houthi Movement’s inner circle, which is almost exclusively made up of northern Yemenis.

IRGC-affiliated media is conducting an information operation asserting that Israel does not care about Israeli hostages in the Gaza Strip. Tasnim News Agency recirculated a Hamas claim that Hamas sought to transfer two hostages to Israel but that Israeli officials refused to accept their delivery on October 22.[46] Tasnim similarly claimed on October 21 that Israel’s “clandestine goal” is to “cause the killing of captive Israelis,” according to “informed sources.”[47] Tasnim published the article in both Persian and English, which suggests that the messaging is intended for both domestic and global audiences.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-22-2023

China has deployed six warships, including a guided-missile destroyer, in the Middle East amid escalating tensions. The presence of these vessels signifies China's operation in the region during the heightened situation.

Major concern about global terror attacks.

‘Battle of entire Muslim Ummah’: Islamist terror outfits Al-Qaeda and ISIS call for global jihad, asks followers to attack Israeli, US and Jewish targets

https://www.opindia.com/2023/10/isr...ers-to-attack-israeli-us-jewish-targets/

IRAN UPDATE, OCTOBER 24, 2023
Oct 24, 2023 - ISW Press

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Iran Update, October 24, 2023

Brian Carter, Peter Mills, Andie Parry, Amin Soltani, Annika Ganzeveld, Johanna Moore, and Nicholas Carl

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments and in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Key Takeaways:

1. Hamas and its allies are preparing the information environment to blame Israel for the possible deaths of hostages in the Gaza Strip, especially if Hamas begins killing hostages. Palestinian militias continued attacks at their usual rate from the Gaza Strip into Israel.
2. Clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces have decreased significantly in the West Bank. Hamas has repeatedly tried to incite violence against Israel in the West Bank since the war began.
3. Iranian-backed militants, including Lebanese Hezbollah (LH), conducted six attacks as part of an ongoing attack campaign targeting IDF radar and sensor sites and military targets. These attacks are consistent with Western and Israeli reports that LH is trying to “keep Israeli forces busy.”
4. The Islamic Resistance of Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—has claimed daily attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria since October 18. These attacks are part of the Iranian-led effort to deter the United States from providing meaningful support to Israel.
5. Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Alwiya Waad al Haq (the Righteous Promise Brigades) threatened to attack US forces in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.
6. Iran is setting informational conditions to blame the United States and Israel for any further escalation of the war and deflect any responsibility from itself. This narrative that Iran is pushing ignores the fact that Iran has already facilitated the expansion of this war to Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen by directing its proxy and partner militias in these countries to attack US and Israeli targets.

Gaza Strip

Hamas and its allies are preparing the information environment to blame Israel for the possible deaths of hostages in the Gaza Strip, especially if Hamas begins killing hostages. Hamas military spokesperson Abu Ubaida said on October 9 that Hamas would kill hostages in response to Israeli airstrikes, indicating Hamas’ willingness to do so for perceived military and/or political gains.[1] Tasnim News Agency—an Iranian outlet affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—reported on October 22 that Israel’s “clandestine goal” is to “cause the killing of captive Israelis,” according to “informed sources.[2] Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) spokesperson Abu Hamza said on October 24 that Israel does not “pay attention” to the lives of hostages.[3]

Hamas and allied Palestinian militias took hostages during the October 7 attack likely to discourage an Israeli ground operation into the Gaza Strip and/or to secure concessions of some kind. Israeli actions and rhetoric suggest that Hamas and allied militias will fail to generate those desired effects, however. Israel is continuing to prepare for a possible ground operation into the Gaza Strip, and the Wall Street Journal reported that Israel-Hamas hostage negotiations collapsed after Hamas demanded that Israel allow fuel deliveries into the Gaza Strip.[4] The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson said that fuel will not enter the strip because Hamas uses fuel for its military infrastructure.[5] Israeli sources said that Israel estimates that Hamas and allied militias are low on fuel and will need to leave their tunnel networks underneath the Gaza Strip once their fuel is depleted.

Palestinian militias continued attacks at their usual rate from the Gaza Strip into Israel on October 24. The al Qassem Brigades—Hamas’ militant wing—claimed responsibility for 11 indirect fire attacks.[7] Saraya al Quds—the militant wing of PIJ—claimed responsibility for six mortar and rocket attacks.[8] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade—the militant wing of Fatah—claimed responsibility for two rocket attacks.[9] The Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades—the militant wing of Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP)—claimed responsibility for three mortar attacks.[10] Axis of Resistance-affiliated media and IDF outlets reported two other unclaimed rocket attacks.[11] This rate of attacks is consistent with the rate that CTP-ISW has observed in recent days.

CTP-ISW recorded one infiltration attempt from the Gaza Strip into Israel on October 24. IDF naval elements targeted a cell of Hamas divers attempting to infiltrate Israel near Zikim.[12] The al Qassem Brigades claimed that its forces clashed with the IDF near Zikim after the attempted infiltration.[13] Other Palestinian sources said that fifteen Hamas fighters infiltrated into the Zikim naval base, where they clashed with the IDF.[14] The IDF wounded six Hamas fighters, according to Palestinian media.

Palestinian militias continued attacks at their usual rate from the Gaza Strip into Israel on October 24. The al Qassem Brigades—Hamas’ militant wing—claimed responsibility for 11 indirect fire attacks.[7] Saraya al Quds—the militant wing of PIJ—claimed responsibility for six mortar and rocket attacks.[8] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade—the militant wing of Fatah—claimed responsibility for two rocket attacks.[9] The Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades—the militant wing of Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP)—claimed responsibility for three mortar attacks.[10] Axis of Resistance-affiliated media and IDF outlets reported two other unclaimed rocket attacks.[11] This rate of attacks is consistent with the rate that CTP-ISW has observed in recent days.

CTP-ISW recorded one infiltration attempt from the Gaza Strip into Israel on October 24. IDF naval elements targeted a cell of Hamas divers attempting to infiltrate Israel near Zikim.[12] The al Qassem Brigades claimed that its forces clashed with the IDF near Zikim after the attempted infiltration.[13] Other Palestinian sources said that fifteen Hamas fighters infiltrated into the Zikim naval base, where they clashed with the IDF.[14] The IDF wounded six Hamas fighters, according to Palestinian media.

West Bank

Clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces have decreased significantly in the West Bank on October 24. CTP-ISW recorded three clashes on October 24 compared to nine on October 23.[16] CTP-ISW also recorded one demonstration in Tulkram in solidarity with the Gaza Strip.[17] Hamas has repeatedly tried to incite violence against Israel in the West Bank since the war began.[18]

• The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade claimed responsibility for an ambush targeting the IDF in Burqa, Nablus.[19] Militants lured the IDF before throwing an IED and opening fire at them. Israeli media reported that one IDF soldier was wounded in the fighting.[20]
• The Jabaa Battalion—a component of PIJ’s al Quds Brigades—claimed responsibility for shooting down an Israeli drone in Jaba, Jerusalem. LH-controlled al Manar reported that Jabaa Battalion militants shot down the drone while engaging IDF soldiers in small arms combat.[21]
• The Nablus Brigade—a unit of PIJ’s al Quds Brigades—reported that it attacked at least one IDF patrol in Nablus.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Iranian-backed militants, including Lebanese Hezbollah (LH), conducted six attacks as part of an ongoing attack campaign targeting IDF radar and sensor sites and military targets.[23 LH claimed two anti-tank guided munition (ATGM) attacks on IDF positions along the northern Israeli border.[24] LH also released a compilation video of previous attacks on IDF radar and sensor sites.[25] LH has continued to suffer casualties in the fighting around the border as the IDF targets ATGM squads preparing to fire into Israel.[26] An LH-affiliated journalist claimed that the group intends to destroy the IDF’s ”espionage capacity” and limit all mechanical and personnel movement along the border through these attacks.[27] These attacks are consistent with Western and Israeli reports that LH is trying to “keep Israeli forces busy.”[28] This campaign also creates opportunities for further LH attacks into Israel and increases the risk of further escalation, as CTP-ISW previously noted.[29]

Unidentified militants in southwestern Syria launched two rockets into the Golan Heights on October 24.[30] CTP-ISW has recorded five attacks into the Golan Heights from Syria since the war began.[31] This most recent attack is inconsistent with the attack pattern that CTP-ISW has observed during the war so far. Unidentified militants have only fired into the Golan Heights from Syria after Israeli airstrikes on Syrian airports up until this point.[32] The IDF has conducted five airstrikes on the Damascus and Aleppo international airports since October 7 to disrupt possible Iranian efforts to transfer military equipment and personnel to Syria.

LH and Lebanese government officials have opposing messages about the possibility of the war expanding to Lebanon. The Lebanese prime minister and Lebanese army commander visited southern Lebanon on October 24 to discuss de-escalating and restoring stability with United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFL) leaders.[34] The Lebanese Army commander stated the Lebanese army is following developments and maintaining readiness at the southern border, while the Lebanese prime minister called Lebanon a peace-loving country. The Lebanese prime minister and the army commander do not control LH forces in southern Lebanon and cannot meaningfully enforce de-escalation, however. LH Deputy Secretary General Naim Qassem warned on October 24 that LH is at the heart of the battle to defend the Gaza Strip and that the group’s “hand is on the trigger.”

Iran and Axis of Resistance

The Islamic Resistance of Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—has claimed daily attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria since October 18. The group has claimed 15 drone and rocket attacks in this time. The group continues to expand the location of its attacks against US forces in Syria. These attacks are part of the Iranian-led effort to deter the United States from providing meaningful support to Israel, as CTP-ISW previously assessed.[36]

• The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed that it used drones to attack US forces at al Omar and al Shaddadi in eastern and northeastern Syria respectively on October 23.[37] The group claimed the drones “hit their target”. The group has not previously claimed attacks on US forces in al Omar and al Shaddadi.
• The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed that it fired two rockets at US forces in Ain al Asad airbase in Iraq on October 24.[38] The group released a video showing the rocket launch but did not include footage of any impact.[39] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has claimed five attacks on US forces at Ain al Asad airbase since October 18. The leader of the Iranian-backed militia Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba condemned the Iraqi government over its refusal to expel US forces from Iraq on October 24.[40] Nujaba previously threatened to attack US forces in Iraq in May 2023.[41] London-based, Qatar-funded al Araby al Jadeed reported that Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani met with the heads of Iranian-backed proxies in Iraq in an effort to deescalate with US forces in Iraq.[42] Nujaba and another Iranian-backed Iraqi militia, Kataib Hezbollah, refused to meet with Sudani and rejected calls for de-escalation.

Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Alwiya Waad al Haq (the Righteous Promise Brigades) threatened to attack US forces in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates on October 24. Alwiya Waad al Haq previously claimed drone attacks targeting the Saudi royal palace in January 2021 and ”vital facilities” in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates in February 2022.[45] CTP-ISW previously assessed that this group was likely a front for Kataib Hezbollah.[46] Pro-Iran Telegram channels affiliated with Iraqi proxy groups echoed the group’s threat to attack US forces in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.[47] This threat and its amplification in pro-Iran channels suggest that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias are willing to escalate regionally beyond Iraq and Syria.

Iran is setting informational conditions to blame the United States and Israel for any further escalation of the war and deflect any responsibility from itself. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s official website accused Israel of trying to ignite “a direct war against Iran with US support.”[48] Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanani stated on October 24 that Iran is seeking to preserve regional “stability and security” despite “war-mongering” from the United States and its allies.[49] IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency argued on October 24 that Axis of Resistance attacks on American bases in Iraq and Syria are only meant to deter further American involvement in the Israel-Hamas war.[50] Nine unspecified Iranian officials told the Qatari-owned, London-based al Araby al Jadeed that Iran only supports “limited” and “small-scale” militia attacks on Israel and US positions in the region but would not seek to open a ”major new front in the war” on October 24.[51] Iran’s Ambassador to Russia Kazem Jalali lastly stated that the responsibility for ”any escalation” of the conflict would fall on the United States and Israel during an interview with Russian state media on October 24.

This information operation that the Iranian regime is conducting is meant to frame the United States and Israel as the antagonists in the war and especially in the event that it escalates further. This information operation also frames the regime as responsible and non-escalatory to its population. This narrative that Iran is pushing ignores the fact that Iran has already facilitated the expansion of this war to Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen by directing its proxy and partner militias in these countries to attack US and Israeli targets.

Iranian state media is seizing on Israeli and Western reports of divisions between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and IDF generals and between Israel and the United States to revive pre-war narratives about Netanyahu’s and Israel’s isolation and weakness. State-run outlet IRNA recirculated Israeli reporting on October 23 about “disagreements” between Netanyahu and the IDF and about Israel’s “inability to decide” on a ground operation into the Gaza Strip.[52] IRNA’s framing of the disagreements differs from the original Israeli reporting that noted that the Israeli war cabinet and senior Israeli military officials disagree on the “timing and scope” of a ground operation—not on whether to conduct such an operation in the first place.[53] Iranian officials and media repeatedly claimed throughout 2023 that Israel was at its “weakest point” due to protests over Netanyahu’s proposed judicial reforms and internal political fissures.[54] Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei stated in April 2023, for example, that Israel was in its worst position and “in a hurry” to collapse.

IRNA separately recirculated Israeli and American reporting on October 24 that some US officials doubt the IDF’s readiness to conduct a ground operation into the Gaza Strip.[56] The regime’s emphasis on disharmony between Israel and the United States contrasts with its emphasis on Muslim unity against Israel. Tehran has historically—and particularly since the start of the war on October 7—sought to rally Muslim countries against Israel and frame itself as a champion of the Palestinian cause, as CTP-ISW previously reported.

Iranian media exaggerated the scope and losses of the IDF’s October 22 raid on Khan Younis as part of its ongoing efforts to deter an Israeli ground operation into the Gaza Strip. Israel conducted a limited raid on Khan Younis to gather information about Israeli hostages and to prepare for a ground operation into the Gaza Strip.[58] The IDF announced that one Israeli soldier was killed during the raid but did not acknowledge Hamas’ claim that it had destroyed Israeli military equipment.[59] State-controlled, English-language Press TV claimed on October 23 that Hamas forced 20 Israeli tanks to retreat during the clashes at Khan Younis.[60] Press TV also claimed that Israeli forces were “caught in an ambush” near Rafah on October 22, which forced them to abandon 10 tanks. IRGC Deputy Commander Brigadier General Ali Fadavi similarly referred to the Khan Younis raid when warning Israel on October 23 that a ground operation into the Gaza Strip would precipitate a “regrettable answer from” the Axis of Resistance. Iranian media and officials’ framing of the Khan Younis raid as a defeat for Israel is consistent with previous Iranian rhetoric that the IDF will face “significant challenges” if it launches a ground operation.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-24-2023

i've been in the syria-lebanon border so they took our phones because of safety reasons.
now i'm home for this weekend.

Good to hear from you Meyer stay strong !

Breaking news: USA conducts airstrikes in Syria, targeting Iranian proxy facilities.

IRAN UPDATE, OCTOBER 26, 2023
Oct 26, 2023 - ISW Press

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Iran Update, October 26, 2023

Peter Mills, Kathryn Tyson, Annika Ganzeveld, Ashka Jhaveri, Brian Carter, and Nicholas Carl

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments and in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Key Takeaways:

1. Palestinian militias continued attacks at their usual rate from the Gaza Strip into Israel. The IDF conducted a raid into the Gaza Strip, which Israeli media framed as preparation for the ground operation.
2. Clashes between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants and anti-Israel protests continued at their usual rate in the West Bank. The Lions’ Den released a statement indicating increasing alignment with Hamas.
3. Iranian-backed militant attacks around the Israel-Lebanon border decreased significantly. The IDF is conducting daily airstrikes against LH and Palestinian militia targets along the northern Israeli border, which may have contributed to the reduced rate of attacks.
4. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed three attacks on US military positions in Iraq and Syria.
5. A senior Hamas delegation traveled to Moscow and met with Russian and Iranian officials.
6. Iranian officials and media are dismissing US calls for Iran and the Axis of Resistance to show restraint in the Hamas-Israel war. The narrative that Iran cannot control its proxy and partner militias in the Axis of Resistance is an Iranian information operation meant to generate plausible deniability for Iranian-led actions in the Middle East and obfuscate Tehran’s responsibility.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

Palestinian militias continued attacks at their usual rate from the Gaza Strip into Israel on October 26. The al Qassem Brigades—Hamas’ militant wing—claimed responsibility for 10 indirect fire attacks.[1] Saraya al Quds—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—claimed responsibility for five mortar and rocket attacks.[2] The al Aqsa Matyrs’ Brigade, which claims it is affiliated with Fatah, claimed responsibility for one rocket attack.[3] Fatah denies that it has any connection to the al Aqsa Matyrs’ Brigade, however. The Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades—the militant wing of Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine—claimed responsibility for two rocket attacks.[4] Axis of Resistance-affiliated media reported five other unclaimed mortar and rocket attacks.

Israeli Ground Operations in the Gaza Strip

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reaffirmed that the IDF will conduct a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip and described its objectives in a televised speech on October 25.[6] Netanyahu stated that the operation is meant to “eliminate Hamas by destroying its military and governance capabilities and to do everything possible to get our hostages back.” Netanyahu did not specify when the operation would begin.

The IDF conducted a raid into the Gaza Strip on October 26, which Israeli media framed as preparation for the ground operation.[7] The IDF Givati Brigade deployed an armored company equipped with bulldozers for the raid.[8] An IDF spokesperson stated that the unit ”eliminated terrorists, neutralized threats, dismantled explosives, [and] neutralized ambushes” during the raid.[9] Palestinian anti-tank elements attempted to fire on the IDF unit, and the IDF tanks returned fire and destroyed the anti-tank elements, according to local Israeli sources.[10]

Iranian state media responded to the raid by pushing the false narrative that Palestinian militants forced the IDF to withdraw from the Gaza Strip.[11] US military doctrine defines a raid as “an operation to temporarily seize an area in order to secure information, confuse an enemy, capture personnel or equipment, or to destroy a capability culminating with a planned withdrawal.”[12] The IDF withdrawal after the operation is consistent with the US military doctrinal definition of a raid, which includes a planned retrograde at the end of the mission.

IDF airstrikes continue to attrit Hamas leadership in the Gaza Strip. The IDF reported on October 26 that it killed the deputy head of Hamas’ intelligence department.[13] The IDF stated that the deputy head helped plan the October 7 attack with other senior Hamas officials. The IDF reported that it killed the commander and deputy commander of the al Qassem Brigades’ Darj Tafah battalion in Gaza city.[14] The IDF announced that it killed a battalion commander in the al Qassem Brigades in Khan Younis on October 25.

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there.

Clashes between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants and anti-Israel protests continued at their usual rate in the West Bank on October 26.[16] CTP-ISW recorded five small arms clashes and eight protests.[17] This rate of activity follows a brief uptick in anti-Israel activity in the West Bank on October 25.[18] The Lions’ Den—a West Bank-based Palestinian militia—appeared to trigger this brief uptick as it released a statement calling for mobilization on October 24.

The Lions’ Den released a statement indicating increasing alignment with Hamas on October 26. The group called for a general business strike throughout the West Bank and described itself as “a sword in the hand of Commander Mohammad Deif,” who is the head of Hamas’ al Qassem Brigades.[20] This framing marks a departure from previous Lions‘ Den claims that the group is not affiliated with any specific Palestinian faction.[21] The statement also marks a departure from previous Lions’ Den calls for mobilization because it refers to the entire West Bank rather than specific locations.[22]

The timing of this statement is noteworthy for several reasons:

• The statement coincides with additional Hamas calls for further escalation against Israel in the West Bank.[23] This apparent alignment comes after CTP-ISW observed indications that Hamas and the Lions’ Den were struggling to coordinate their efforts in the West Bank during the early days of the war.[24]
• The statement comes after Lebanese Hezbollah, Hamas, and PIJ held a coordination and planning meeting in Beirut on October 24.[25] CTP-ISW is considering the hypothesis that this meeting has prompted a change in Palestinian militant behavior in the West Bank.
• The statement comes after Netanyahu reaffirmed on October 25 that the IDF will imminently conduct a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip to destroy Hamas’ “military and governance capabilities.”[26]
The fact that Palestinian militias, especially Hamas, rely on public calls for escalation in the West Bank indicates that these groups lack the necessary chain of command and organization to do so covertly. Hamas has demonstrated that it can organize coordinated efforts in the Gaza Strip because it has organizational infrastructure there through which Hamas leaders can communicate instructions and orders.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Iranian-backed militant attacks around the Israel-Lebanon border decreased significantly on October 26. Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) did not claim any attacks on Israeli targets for the first time since CTP-ISW began recording LH claims on October 11.[27] Unspecified militants fired a surface-to-air missile targeting an IDF drone.[28] This single attack marks a noteworthy decrease from the six Iranian-backed attacks that CTP-ISW recorded on October 25.[29]

The IDF is conducting daily airstrikes against LH and Palestinian militia targets along the northern Israeli border, which may have contributed to the reduced rate of attacks.[30] LH acknowledged that IDF airstrikes have killed at least 44 of its fighters since October 9, including 30 fighters since October 21.[31] Israeli airstrikes specifically targeting LH anti-tank guided missile cells on October 25 killed eight LH fighters before they could fire their missiles and hit Israeli targets.[32]

It is noteworthy that the decreased rate of attacks occurred immediately after LH Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah held a coordination and planning meeting with Hamas Deputy Political Bureau Chairman Saleh al Arouri and PIJ Secretary General Ziyad al Nakhalah in Beirut on October 24.

[u]Iran and Axis of Resistance[/u]

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed three attacks on US military positions in Iraq and Syria. The group conducted one-way drone attacks on US positions at Ain al Asad airbase and Erbil International Airport on October 25 and 26.[34] The group also conducted a rocket attack on a US base near Hasakah in northeastern Syria on October 26.[35] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has claimed 20 of the 22 reported attacks on US forces in the Middle East since October 18. The US force presence in Iraq and Syria is essential to US efforts to counter ISIS.

Iranian-backed Iraqi militia leaders from the Islamic Resistance in Iraq reaffirmed on October 26 their commitment to waging a long-term fight against the United States, indicating that the group will conduct additional attacks in the coming days. Kataib Hezbollah (KH) leader Abdul Ali al Askari stated that the group is prepared to fight the United States ”for years.”[36] Asaib Ahl al Haq leader Qais Khazali stated that Iraqi militias are attacking the United States for its support for Israel.

A senior Hamas delegation traveled to Moscow and met with Russian and Iranian officials on October 26.[38] Hamas’ International Relation Office head and political bureau member Musa Abu Marzouk led the delegation, which also included Health Minister of the Gaza Strip Basem Naim.[39] The delegation held a joint meeting with Russian Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister and Special Representative for the Middle East Mikhail Bogdanov and Iranian Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Ali Bagheri Kani. Hamas leaders issued statements around the visit praising Russia’s stance toward the Israel-Hamas war. Russia has framed itself as a possible mediator between Israel and Hamas and submitted a UN resolution calling for a humanitarian ceasefire on October 16. The UN resolution failed to mention Hamas by name.[40] The Israeli Foreign Affairs Ministry condemned Russia’s invitation to Hamas on October 26.[41]CTP-ISW previously assessed that the Kremlin is already exploiting and will likely continue to exploit the Israel-Hamas war to advance several information operations intended to reduce US and Western support for and attention to Ukraine.[42] A senior Hamas delegation most recently visited Moscow in March 2023 amid strained tensions between Russia and Israel over the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Iranian officials and media are dismissing US calls for Iran and the Axis of Resistance to show restraint in the Hamas-Israel war. The Biden administration has sent Iran at least two messages since October 7, expressing its desire to avoid a regional war and calling on Iran to show restraint and to urge its proxy militias to do the same.[44] US President Joe Biden also issued a direct warning to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on October 25, stating that the United States will respond to continued attacks on US forces in the Middle East.[45] Iranian Vice President for Political Affairs Mohammad Jamshidi dismissed the Biden administration’s messages, describing the warnings against regional escalation as “nothing but requests.”[46] An unidentified source separately told Iranian state media on October 26 that the United States’ supply of military equipment to Israel contradicts US calls for restraint.[47] The source added that Iran cannot “order or forbid regional resistance groups [from acting.]”

The narrative that Iran cannot control its proxy and partner militias in the Axis of Resistance is an Iranian information operation meant to generate plausible deniability for Iranian-led actions in the Middle East and obfuscate Tehran’s responsibility.[49] This narrative has repeatedly proven false.

• CTP-ISW reported in June 2023, for example, that Iraqi proxies stopped threatening to attack US forces following IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani’s visit to Baghdad that month.[50] The cessation of proxy threats suggested that Ghaani had directed the proxies to deescalate.
• Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters Commander Major General Gholam Ali Rashid stated on October 26 that the Axis of Resistance in the “north, east, and south” of Israel would support Hamas in the event of an Israeli ground operation into the Gaza Strip.[51] Rashid is a member of Iran’s IRGC command network, a small group of seinor leaders who dominate the IRGC and have close connections stemming from the Iran-Iraq War.[52] Rashid has personal connections to other senior members of Iran’s military leadership, such as former IRGC Commander Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari.[53] The Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters is the highest Iranian operational headquarters and is responsible for wartime operations. The headquarters, along with the Armed Forces General Staff, commands, controls, coordinates, and supports the three branches of Iran’s armed forces.[54] The commanders of these branches—the Artesh, IRGC, and Law Enforcement Command—relay orders from the Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters to their operational forces.[55] Statements by Rashid carry more weight than those by IRGC officers in lesser posts.
• Iran has facilitated the expansion of the Hamas-Israel war since October 7. Iran has directed its proxy and partner militias in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen to attack US and Israeli targets.[56] The militias have used weapons supplied by Iran in some of their attacks on US military positions.[57] Iran has historically provided extensive material and financial support as well as training to its proxies in the region. The Washington Post reported on October 9 that Iran provided Hamas fighters with training and weapons prior to the October 7 attack.[58] The IRGC Quds Force has separately coordinated the deployment of hundreds of Iranian-backed militants in southern Lebanon and southwestern Syria since the war began.[59] These militants include military engineers and missile experts, among others.[60] Israel has furthermore conducted several airstrikes on the Damascus and Aleppo international airports since October 12 and indicated that the airstrikes are meant to prevent Iran from moving weapons into Syria and/or opening a front against Israel from there.[61]
Iran’s claims are part of its ongoing information operation to deflect responsibility for any further escalation of the conflict away from Iran. The Iranian regime has repeatedly accused the United States of aggravating the conflict while framing itself as a promoter of peace. Iran has additionally set informational conditions to blame the United States and Israel for any further escalation of the war and deflect any responsibility from itself, as CTP-ISW previously reported.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-26-2023

Israel has now start the offensive to eliminate Hamas, now a ceasefire is crazy!

UN resolution calls for 'humanitarian ceasefire'. Why did the Netherlands abstain from voting?
WAR ISRAEL AND HAMASThe UN countries have issued a resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza. 120 countries voted in favor, but the Netherlands abstained.

The resolution, tabled by Jordan, calls for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire. The text also calls for protecting civilians and allowing humanitarian goods for civilians into Gaza. That call was accepted with 120 votes in favor, more than two-thirds of the countries in the UN.

Anyone who looks at Israel's troops and weapon systems concludes: this is a military giant
The Netherlands did not vote in favor and was one of 45 countries that abstained. This also applies to Germany, Denmark, Sweden and the United Kingdom, among others. The Dutch ambassador to the UN in New York, Joke Brandt, emphasized in an explanation the importance of pauses in fighting, aid supplies and the sharp condemnation of 'all acts of violence against Palestinian and Israeli civilians'. “But as far as we are concerned, important elements are missing from the text,” she said.

The main point is that the text does not state that Israel has the right to defend itself. The Netherlands also believes there is insufficient emphasis on the release of all hostages. A Canadian amendment to also condemn the Hamas terror attack and to include in the text the need to release the Israeli hostages did not receive sufficient support.
\
The fact that the Netherlands does not vote in favor of the call to lay down arms is a sensitive issue among staff at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Last week, a group of 350 civil servants criticized the Dutch position in the conflict in a letter to outgoing ministers Hanke Bruins Slot (CDA) and Liesje Schreinemacher (VVD). The Netherlands is damaging its international credibility "by abandoning the foundations of international law in the case of Gaza," they write, NRC reported . The officials also call for a ceasefire 'strongly'.

Belgium, France and Norway, among others, did agree to the UN resolution. Belgium also "deeply regrets" that important points are missing from the text, Ambassador Philippe Kridelka said in the UN hall, but decided to vote in favor anyway. Kridelka also wanted to read in the call that Israel has the right to defend itself. French Ambassador Nicolas de Rivière also indicated that he misses that point, but that his country votes in favor, "because nothing can justify the suffering of citizens."

The fact that the General Assembly of all countries in the UN adopts a resolution does not have immediate consequences, but serves as a strong signal from the world to the warring parties in a war. Europe turned out to be very divided, as Austria, the Czech Republic and Hungary voted outright against it. A total of 14 countries voted against.

Secretary General António Guterres also spread the call for a 'humanitarian ceasefire' via social media. “Everyone must take responsibility,” he writes. “This is a moment of truth. History will judge us all.”

IRAN UPDATE, OCTOBER 28, 2023
Oct 28, 2023 - ISW Press

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Iran Update, October 28, 2023

Ashka Jhaveri, Andie Parry, Annika Ganzeveld, Amin Soltani, and Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 3:00 pm EST

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Key Takeaways:

1. Palestinian militias continued attacks at their usual rate from the Gaza Strip into Israel. The al Qassem Brigades claimed to fire rockets at Dimona for the first time since the war started.
2. Israeli ground forces advanced into the Gaza Strip. The al Qassem Brigades claimed to attack advancing IDF forces in Beit Hanoun and east of Bureij. Palestinian militias, including Hamas, are framing the IDF advances into the Gaza Strip as a failure likely to encourage civilians to stay rather than try to evacuate toward the southern part of the strip.
3. The Lions’ Den—a West Bank-based Palestinian militia—appeared to implicitly call for further mobilization and violence against Israel in the West Bank after the IDF conducted ground operations into the Gaza Strip. Iranian and Palestinian sources are describing Israeli settlers in the West Bank as legitimate military targets. Palestinian militants clashed with Israeli forces and held large, anti-Israel demonstrations at their usual rate across the West Bank.
4. Iranian-backed militants, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted 12 attacks into Israel as part of an ongoing attack campaign targeting IDF radar and sensor sites and military targets.
5. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed to attack US forces at al Tanf Garrison in eastern Syria.
6. Iran is conducting a messaging campaign (1) to signal to the United States the potential for further Iranian-backed attacks against US forces in the region and (2) to reassure members of its Axis of Resistance, especially LH, of Iran’s commitment to supporting them in the event that the United States enters the war in support of Israel.
7. IRGC-affiliated media is continuing to provide the informational cover for Iran and the Axis of Resistance to conduct attacks against US positions on the false grounds that the United States is directing Israeli operations into the Gaza Strip.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip

Palestinian militias continued attacks at their usual rate from the Gaza Strip into Israel on October 28. The al Qassem Brigades—Hamas’ militant wing—claimed responsibility for nine indirect fire attacks. The al Qassem Brigades claimed to fire rockets at Dimona for the first time since the war started.[1] Israeli news reported that the Iron Dome air defense system intercepted three of the rockets and one fell in an open area.[2] The Israeli Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center is based outside of Dimona in southern Israel.[3] Iran and its Axis of Resistance have threatened to attack the facility previously, which has prompted Israel to reinforce the reactor, according to the head of the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission head.[4] Saraya al Quds—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—separately claimed responsibility for nine mortar and rocket attacks.

Israeli Ground Operations in the Gaza Strip

Israeli ground forces advanced into the Gaza Strip on October 27.IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi said IDF ground forces supported by heavy fire entered the Gaza Strip to dismantle Hamas, secure the border, and return hostages.[6] IDF Southern Command Fire Center Commander Lieutenant Colonel Gilad Keinan stated that Israel is using fire “from the air, from the ground, or from the underground.”[7] IDF spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said that Israeli troops entered the northern Gaza Strip with ground troops, armor, and artillery.[8] The IDF released footage of tanks entering along the beach in the northwestern Gaza Strip.[9] Hagari added that the ground operation was supported by "very significant, massive attacks from the sea."[10] The IDF Air Force struck 150 underground targets in the northern Gaza Strip overnight, which included striking Hamas militants, tunnels, and other subterranean infrastructure.[11] Hamas maintains around 480 kilometers of tunnels under the strip.

The al Qassem Brigades claimed to attack advancing IDF forces in Beit Hanoun and east of Bureij overnight.[13] Hamas official Ali Bakara said Palestinian militants used anti-tank missiles to repel the attack and that it has been preparing defensive plans since the beginning of the battle.[14] Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said overnight that Israel completed a phase in the war and that Israel will continue to be strong and precise.[15] CTP-ISW cannot independently verify the locations of these Israeli ground operations.

Palestinian militias, including Hamas, are framing the IDF advances into the Gaza Strip as a failure likely to encourage civilians to stay rather than try to evacuate toward the southern part of the strip. • • Hamas claimed that the Israeli ground attack into the Gaza Strip was a failure.[16] A Saraya al Quds official said that the IDF received painful strikes on the points of advance.[17] Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine militant wing spokesman Abu Jamal said the IDF suffered heavy losses.[18] An Israeli spokesperson said Israel had no casualties in Friday night's fighting.[19]

• Israel issued an urgent message for residents of the Gaza Strip and Gaza City to temporarily relocate south until intense hostilities end.[20] Israel dropped flyers in the northern part of the strip with a similar message. Hamas previously urged locals to stay in Gaza, describing the Israeli warnings on October 12 as “psychological warfare” against Palestinians.
• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that Hamas continues to use civilians as human shields, which intentionally puts these civilians in harm's way, to protect Hamas’ military infrastructure and weapons.[21] Civilians leaving the northern Gaza Strip en masse would risk depriving Hamas of the ability to use regular civilian activity to mask its military activities.

Iranian officials and media continued to argue on October 28 that Israeli ground operations into the Gaza Strip are failing and will not achieve their aim of destroying Hamas. IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency claimed that on October 27 that the IDF ground operations inside the Gaza Strip were unsuccessful.[22] IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency similarly argued that Israel has had to repeatedly retreat after conducting limited operations inside the Gaza Strip and that Israel has not been able to do much more than launch a media campaign justifying these retreats.[23] State-controlled Islamic Republic News Agency recirculated Hamas’ statement that the IDF operations failed as Hamas inflicted significant casualties and damage on the IDF.[24] IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami argued that Israel is incapable of defeating Hamas, claiming that the Gaza Strip will become the grave for many Israeli soldiers.[25]

This Iranian messaging ignores the fact that much of the IDF activity into the Gaza Strip in recent days had been raids.[26] US military doctrine defines a raid as “an operation to temporarily seize an area in order to secure information, confuse an enemy, capture personnel or equipment, or to destroy a capability culminating with a planned withdrawal.”[27] The IDF withdrawals after their operations were consistent with the US military doctrinal definition of a raid, which includes a planned retrograde at the end of the mission.

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

The Lions’ Den—a West Bank-based Palestinian militia—appeared to implicitly call for further mobilization and violence against Israel in the West Bank after the IDF conducted ground operations into the Gaza Strip on October 27. The group posted on its Telegram for the first time since October 25, saying “long live jihad.”[28] The Lions’ Den has repeatedly called for mobilization in the West Bank in support of Hamas since the war began. The group claims to be unaffiliated with any specific Palestinian faction.[29] The Lions’ Den released a statement indicating increasing alignment with Hamas on October 25, however.[30] CTP-ISW previously reported that the group appeared to briefly trigger an uptick in violence after previous calls to mobilize.

Iranian and Palestinian sources are describing Israeli settlers in the West Bank as legitimate military targets. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s official website pushed the narrative that Israeli settlers are armed and contribute to Israel’s “ethnic cleansing” of Palestinians on October 27.[31] Hamas Political Bureau member Musa Dudin similarly stated on October 27 that “it is time for the West Bank to attack the security of the settlements.”[32] The statements come amid heightened tension between Palestinians and settlers in the West Bank.[33] The Palestinian Health Ministry in the West Bank said an Israeli settler shot and killed a Palestinian on October 28.[34] Hamas responded to the shooting on Telegram, hailing the Palestinian as a martyr, who was killed “during the confrontations of the al Aqsa Flood battle.”

Palestinian militants clashed with Israeli forces and held large, anti-Israel demonstrations at their usual rate across the West Bank on October 28. CTP-ISW recorded 11 distinct clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces across the West Bank. CTP-ISW recorded four instances of Palestinian militants using IEDs, which has become increasingly common since October 18.[36] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade's Rapid Response Groups claimed to attack IDF soldiers stationed at Netzanei Oz on the border between Israel and the West Bank.[37]
CTP-ISW recorded five anti-Israel demonstrations in major cities across the West Bank, including Nablus, Jenin, Ramallah, and Tulkarm. Many shops closed in Jenin as part of a general strike against Israeli attacks into the Gaza Strip.[38] Local Telegram channels called for general mobilization in the West Bank on October 28, which is consistent with repeated Hamas calls for further resistance in the West Bank.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Iranian-backed militants, including Lebanese Hezbollah (LH), conducted 12 attacks into Israel as part of an ongoing attack campaign targeting IDF radar and sensor sites and military targets. LH claimed five anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) and rocket attacks on IDF positions along the border with Lebanon on October 28, which is consistent with its rate of attacks prior to October 26.[40] The IDF responded with multiple airstrikes and artillery strikes into southern Lebanon and on the Israel-Lebanon border, including against LH ATGM squads.[41] LH claimed that one of its attacks caused IDF casualties along the border.[42] LH fired an Iranian-designed 358 surface-to-air missile at an Israeli drone on October 28.[43] IDF air defense intercepted the missile over Tiberias in northern Israel.[44] The 358 missile is an Iranian-origin missile widely used by the Houthi movement in Yemen.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the
United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed to attack US forces at al Tanf Garrison (ATG) in eastern Syria on October 27 The group claimed to attack the base with two one-way attack drones, marking the group’s third attack on ATG since October 19.[47] Local media reported two other unclaimed drone and rocket attacks on US forces stationed at bases in eastern and northeastern Syria.[48] Iranian-backed militias were responsible for these attacks, according to local anti-Syrian regime media.[49] Iranian-backed militias transported short range rockets to a town two miles from a US base in Deir ez Zor Province on October 28.[50] This is the eleventh consecutive day of Iranian-backed militia attacks on US forces in the Middle East. All three attacks occurred after Israel’s expanded operation into the Gaza Strip.

Iran is conducting a messaging campaign (1) to signal to the United States the potential for further Iranian-backed attacks against US forces in the region and (2) to reassure members of its Axis of Resistance, especially LH, of Iran’s commitment to supporting them in the event that the United States enters the war in support of Israel.

• Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian warned on October 27 that continued US support to Israel will result in the “opening of new fronts against the United States,” according to Bloomberg TV.[52] Abdollahian spoke with Bloomberg TV, as well as other Western outlets, while visiting New York City for an emergency UNGA session on the Israel-Hamas war.[53] Iranian state media heavily recirculated the headline of “new fronts against the United States” in its coverage of Abdollahian’s interview.[54] This warning diverges slightly from his previous warnings, which have mentioned the possibility for the war to expand geographically but had not framed this expansion as directed specifically against the United States.[55] Abdollahian separately pushed during his interviews with Western outlets the Iranian information operation asserting that the United States and Israel would be responsible for any further escalation and expansion of the war. Abdollahian stated in his interview with NPR on October 27, for example, that the continuation of Israeli attacks on Hamas could drive Iranian-backed Lebanese and Palestinian groups to implement plans “more powerful and deeper than what [the United States] has witnessed.”[56] The narrative that the United States and Israel would be responsible for the escalation of the war ignores the fact that Iran has already facilitated the expansion of this war to Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen by directing its proxy and partner militias in these countries to attack US and Israeli targets.
• IRGC spokesperson Brigadier General Ramazan Sharif warned of further attacks on US positions in the region during an interview with LH-affiliated al Mayadeen on October 28.[57] Sharif warned that “those who cannot reach Israel [in battle] may be able to reach the US forces that are managing this war.”[58] He added that Iran is monitoring US bases in the region and US missile transfers to Israel. Al Mayadeen published the interview in Arabic and English, suggesting that Sharif meant to address local and Western audiences.[59] Sharif’s interview was firstly likely part of Iranian efforts to deter the United States from providing further military support to Israel. Sharif also likely sought to reassure the Axis of Resistance that Iran would support them, especially LH, in light of reports that the United States would intervene if LH attacked Israel.

IRGC-affiliated media is continuing to provide the informational cover for Iran and the Axis of Resistance to conduct attacks against US positions on the false grounds that the United States is directing Israeli operations into the Gaza Strip. Tasnim and Fars news agencies claimed that 5,000 American soldiers participated in the IDF’s October 27 ground operations into the Gaza Strip.[61] Tasnim also repeated its earlier claim from October 16 that American military commanders have taken over command of Israeli operations in the area.[62] Several elements in Iran’s Axis of Resistance, including various Iraqi militias and the Houthi movement, have threatened to attack the United States and Israel if the United States intervenes in support of Israel.

The Artesh—Iran's conventional military—held its annual exercise near Esfahan on October 27-28. The Artesh regularly holds this exercise around the same time every year.[63] Senior armed forces officials assessed the Artesh’s missile, drone, armored combat, electronic warfare, helicopter transport, and engineering capabilities.[64] The Artesh also unveiled a series of purportedly new capabilities, including “a multi-rotor smart bomber,” a cruise-missile equipped helicopter, and other unspecified “operational and tactical equipment.”[65] Artesh Ground Forces Passive Defense and Engineering Deputy Commander Brigadier General Miser Arjoumandi stated that the Artesh implemented projects for a “five-kilometer fire wall” for coastal defense operations.[66] Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters Deputy Coordinator Brigadier General Ali Shadmani assessed that the Artesh Ground Forces are in “excellent” condition in all areas on the sidelines of the exercise on October 28.[67] Artesh Commander Major General Abdol Rahim Mousavi and Artesh Ground Forces Commander Brigadier General Kiomars Heydari similarly stated that the Artesh is fully prepared for defending Iran’s borders and responding to any threats.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-28-2023

Herzog says German-Israeli Shani Louk found beheaded after being taken to Gaza

https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/isra...sraeli-shani-louk-found-beheaded-in-gaza

IRAN UPDATE, OCTOBER 30, 2023
Oct 30, 2023 - ISW Press

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Iran Update, October 30, 2023

Brian Carter, Andie Parry, Peter Mills, Johanna Moore, Annika Ganzeveld, Amin Soltani, and Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm EST

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.


Key Takeaways:[/u]

1. Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip conducted indirect fire attacks into Israel at a rate consistent with the rate observed on October 29.
2. Israeli forces conducted a route clearance operation moving from near Juhor ad Dik to the Salah al Din road in the Gaza Strip before withdrawing.
3. Israeli forces conducted an extensive operation targeting Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad leaders and infrastructure in Jenin. CTP-ISW has recorded noteworthy Palestinian militant activity around Jenin in recent months.
4. CTP-ISW recorded three additional clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces.
5. Iranian-backed militants, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted 10 attacks into Israel.
6. LH leader Hassan Nasrallah is scheduled to give a speech on Friday, November 3, according to LH media. This planned speech is noteworthy given that Nasrallah has not yet made a public statement on the Israel-Hamas war.
7. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for two separate rocket attacks targeting US forces stationed in Iraq and Syria.
8. Supreme Leader Military Affairs Adviser and former IRGC Commander Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi met with Belarusian Defense Minister Lieutenant General Viktor Khrenin on the sidelines of the 10th Common Security and Lasting Peace forum in Beijing.

[u]Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip

Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip conducted indirect fire attacks into Israel on October 30 at a rate consistent with the rate observed on October 29. The al Qassem Brigades—Hamas’ militant wing—claimed responsibility for eight indirect fire attacks.[1] Saraya al Quds—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—claimed responsibility for another eight indirect fire attacks.

Israeli forces conducted a route clearance operation moving from near Juhor ad Dik to the Salah al Din road in the Gaza Strip before withdrawing.[3] Israeli forces, including at least one bulldozer and other armor, held a position on the Salah al Din road on October 30.[4] Israeli forces withdrew after a brief period.[5] Palestinian sources and the IDF reported that Palestinian fighters engaged IDF armor east of Zaytoun neighborhood, which is just west of Salah al Din road.[6] The Salah al Din road is an important north-south thoroughfare running through the entirety of the strip. This Israeli operation is consistent with Israeli military experts’ characterization of IDF tactics, which involve small IDF units taking “limited areas” before following up with additional ground forces and armor.

Palestinian media, Hamas, and Axis of Resistance media claimed that the al Qassem Brigades and National Resistance Brigades engaged IDF forces in the northwestern Gaza Strip on October 30. The National Resistance Brigades is the militant wing of the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine. Hamas claimed that the al Qassem Brigades used mortars, snipers, anti-tank fire, and machine guns to target IDF units moving northwest of Beit Lahia.[8] The National Resistance Brigades mortared Israeli vehicles attempting to enter the strip in the northwest, according to the reports’ claims.[9] The al Qassem Brigades also used anti-tank fire and machine guns against IDF forces in the northwestern Gaza Strip on October 30.[10]

Hamas is continuing its information operation claiming that the Palestinian militants are defeating the IDF and thwarting the IDF’s plan.[11] The IDF is intentionally moving slowly to take “limited areas” with small forces before following them up with additional ground forces.[12]

Israeli special operations forces and Shin Bet personnel rescued IDF Private Uri Magidish on October 29 during a ground operation in the Gaza Strip.[13] The Israeli defense minister said that Israel planned the operation for “days” and that the operation was held in a “relatively remote area in the northern Gaza Strip.”

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Israeli forces conducted an extensive operation targeting Hamas and PIJ leaders and infrastructure in Jenin on October 30. The raid is part of the Israeli effort to degrade Hamas and PIJ capabilities in the West Bank. Israeli media reported the operation killed senior PIJ commander and founder of the Jenin Battalion Wiam Iyad Hanon.[16] The Jenin Battalion is an amalgamation of militia groups based in Jenin but most heavily associated with PIJ.[17] CTP-ISW recorded two claims of Palestinian militants using IEDs in Jenin on October 30.[18] PIJ claimed that the IEDs damaged Israeli armored vehicles.[19] CTP-ISW cannot independently verify the claims of damage or causalities caused by the IED attacks.

CTP-ISW has recorded noteworthy Palestinian militant activity around Jenin in recent months. PIJ stated on October 13 that the group is prioritizing attacking Israeli forces and infrastructure around Jenin.[20] PIJ’s branch in Jenin separately announced in July 2023 that they have explosively formed penetrators (EFP), which are an Iranian-designed explosive device that Iranian-backed militias—with Iranian direction—used extensively against US forces in Iraq.

CTP-ISW recorded three additional clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces on October 30.[22] The IDF stated it arrested 38 Hamas members and 13 other militants while confiscating weapons across the West Bank.[23] CTP-ISW recorded a single anti-Israel demonstration in Ramallah compared to three the day prior.[24] It is noteworthy that there has been no significant inflection in anti-Israel activity in the West Bank since the IDF began ground operations into the Gaza Strip on October 27.

Shin Bet warned the Israeli government that continued settler attacks could lead to an eruption of violence in the West Bank, according to Israeli media. Shin Bet head Ronen Bar warned on October 30 that an increase in Israeli settlers attacking Palestinians risks harming the war effort. US administration officials have also expressed concern over rising settler violence.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel.

The PIJ attack is especially noteworthy given the closeness of the group to Iran and LH. Tehran and LH have provided various forms of support, including funding and military equipment and training, to PIJ for decades.[31] LH almost certainly permits Palestinian militant groups, such as PIJ, to conduct attacks from southern Lebanon given the extent to which LH controls the area and coordinates with the other Iranian-backed groups operating there.

A Syrian Arab Army (SAA) unit fired two rockets into the Golan Heights on October 29, according to local Syrian media. The report claimed that the rockets landed in an open field. The IDF conducted airstrikes against the SAA 112th Brigade near Nawa, southern Syria, shortly after the rocket fire.

LH leader Hassan Nasrallah is scheduled to give a speech on Friday, November 3, according to LH media.[34] This planned speech is noteworthy given that Nasrallah has not yet made a public statement on the Israel-Hamas war. Nasrallah’s only major appearance since the war began was him attending a coordination and planning meeting with senior Hamas and PIJ leaders in Beirut on October 25.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for two separate rocket attacks targeting US forces stationed in Iraq and Syria on October 30.[36] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has claimed responsibility for 26 attacks on US forces in the Middle East since October 18.

• The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed a rocket attack targeting Conoco Mission Support Site on October 30.[37] This is the third attack on this location that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq has claimed since October 18. Syria-based al Sharqiya News reported that the group launched the attack from a neighborhood within Deir ez Zor City controlled by Iranian-backed militias.[38]
• The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed a rocket attack on Ain al Asad airbase on October 30.[39] This is the eighth attack on Ain al Asad airbase that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq has claimed since October 18.

UK-based outlet Amwaj Media reported on October 30 that IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani is coordinating Axis of Resistance activities against Israel from a joint operations center in Beirut.[40] Ghaani traveled to Beirut on October 20 where he has since been stationed and met and coordinated with LH and Palestinian militia leaders, according to the report.[41] Ghaani previously visited Syria to direct Iranian-affiliated militias to prepare to open a second front against Israel on October 15, as CTP-ISW previously reported.

Syria-based, anti-Iran news outlet Eye of Euphrates released a report detailing the various Iranian-backed militias responsible for conducting attacks on US forces in the Middle East since October 189. The article reported that the most senior IRGC Commander in Syria, Hajj Askar, has coordinated all attacks on US forces in Syria with the local IRGC commanders in eastern Syria through a joint operations room based in Sayyida Zainab, Rif Dimashq Province. CTP-ISW cannot independently verify this report, although it is consistent with CTP-ISW’s previous reporting.

• Eye of Euphrates reported that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias Kataib Hezbollah (KH) and Asaib Ahl al Haq (AAH) were responsible for conducting at least one of the one-way drone strikes targeting al Tanf Garrison in eastern Syria. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, of which KH and AAH are both members, has claimed responsibility for two one-way drone attacks on Al Tanf Garrison since October 18.[44]
• Eye of Euphrates reported that the leader of the Iranian-affiliated Akidat militia, Hashem al Sattem, armed and directed Iranian sleeper cells active in Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)-held territory to conduct strikes on US forces stationed at al Omar oil field. CTP-ISW previously reported on Iranian efforts to establish sleeper cells in SDF-held territory and warned that these cells possessed the capabilities to target US forces in eastern Syria.[45] CTP-ISW has recorded at least one attack targeting US forces stationed at al Omar oil field since October 18.[46]
• The article explained that Iranian-backed Syrian Hezbollah militants, led by Mohammad Amin Hussein al Raja and Tariq al Mayouf, and the Iranian-affiliated Sons of Jazira and Euphrates, led by Nawaf Ragheb al Bashir, conducted rocket attacks targeting US forces stationed at Conoco. According to Eye of Euphrates, the militants carried out attacks from Mazloum and Marat in Deir ez Zor Province. CTP-ISW has recorded two attacks targeting US forces stationed at Conoco Mission Support Site since October 18.

Iranian Parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Committee Chairman Vahid Jalal Zadeh discussed the Israel-Hamas war with Russian parliamentarians in Moscow on October 30.[48] Jalal Zadeh met with the following individuals:

• Russian State Duma International Affairs Committee Chairman Leonid Slutsky
• Russian State Duma Defense Committee Chairman Andrey Kartapolov
• Russian State Duma member Alexander Babakov
• Russian Federation Council Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Kostantin Kosachev
Jalal Zadeh called on Russia to cooperate with Iran to stop Israeli “crimes” against Palestinians.[49] Jalal Zadeh’s visit to Moscow follows Iranian Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Ali Bagheri Kani’s October 26-27 visit to Moscow, in which he met with senior Hamas and Russian officials.[50] Jalal Zadeh will travel to Turkey after concluding his trip to Russia.

Supreme Leader Military Affairs Adviser and former IRGC Commander Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi met with Belarusian Defense Minister Lieutenant General Viktor Khrenin on the sidelines of the 10th Common Security and Lasting Peace Forum in Beijing on October 30.[51] Iranian state media reported that the two officials discussed unspecified military cooperation.[52] Khrenin previously traveled to Tehran on July 31 to August 1 to discuss defense industry cooperation, establishing military attaches between Belarus and Iran, and conducting joint exercises. Khrenin met with Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri and Defense Minister Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Ashtiani during the visit. [53] CTP-ISW previously assessed that Khrenin may have discussed establishing Shahed one-way attack drone factories in Belarus to support the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[54]

Iranian state media separately reported that Safavi will meet with other unspecified commanders and officials attending the forum to improve cultural, economic, and political ties.[55] Safavi stated that he seeks to represent the “voice of the oppressed people of Gaza” during his meetings and speech at the forum.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-30-2023