Thank you for the summary So he was earmarked for bigger things like Rocco but his greed and impatience were his undoing

Paulie was basically Clemenza’s top soldier and protege(before Pentangeli was created). When Paulie become traitor Clemenza took great offense and was more than happy to kill him when Sonny orders it. Yes He chose Rocco to replace Paulie but obviously Rocco eventually rose to become a high ranking member in the family

The beginning of GF (and the novel) is full of parables about Mob life. Paulie's story is a good one: Betrayal is never far away from any Don's existence. And, greed makes otherwise smart people stupid.
Paulie was an up-and-coming button man who was due for a reward (says the novel) for carrying out the beating of the two punks perfectly. His greed cost him his life--and nearly cost Vito his life.

Paulie would have known he was due for a reward?

Presumably Clemenza made the same offer to his top soldier and protégé Paulie [made to Rocco later] for carrying out the Bonasera assignment perfectly but Paulie was too impatient to wait, in spite of Paulie's reward would have been quicker than Rocco's because things were 'normal' then

If my memory serves me right, Clemenza told Rocco, Rocco would be rewarded for “exterminating”! Paulie after the Gangland war settles or similar

For Vito and Michael, there's only their wife and son – beautiful Angels! No Vegas girls!

• Garden scene

That's it! in a nutshell!

Carlo had big plans for himself, marrying into the Top Mafia Family, their only daughter - Right hand man to the Don

little he know abortion coming

Barzini made him an offer he couldn't refuse.

from what I remember,
Vito also realized he could be doing a lot more for the Family because he was a talker and was given something important which made him think, no one suspected him and he had gotten away with it

Another of the Great King's delusions and failings Too late

• Michael-Greene meeting

Fredo was Floating like a butterfly!! Fussing over....

All excited and undoubtedly feeling important that he was in a position to give his kid brother "Anything he wants Anything"
1. Fredo wanted to give Michael a good time, like Fredo's been enjoying!
2. a piece of his action! 
3. Fredo wanted to show off! to his kid brother

I think it was [another] lost opportunity

Fredo was blindsided Fredo had no idea

• Vito was semi-retired
• Michael was in charge of the family business
• Michael's real reason [buy Greene out] for the visit

However acknowledge risky as Fredo could have blabbed to Greene and the surprise element would have been lost

It seems to me Fredo taking sides against the Family was not addressed by Vito nor Vito had a Garden chat with Fredo as to -
1. Why Fredo was being stepped over
2. That's the way Pop wanted it

"Something in it for me"

Turnbull
We see in the Trilogy how greed and lust for vengeance blind the perps to the obvious
Extracts:

• Could Paulie seriously think he wouldn't be the prime suspect in setting up Vito?
• Did Carlo have any right to believe he could get away with setting up Sonny by beating up Connie for a second time?

If Vito's life were a rap sheet, we'd see a gangster who used violence--including murder--to acheive his criminal goals. He corrupted police, politicians and judges, subverting justice and the rule of law. Yes, he eschewed drugs for "harmless" criminal businesses. But, the big money in gambling comes not the odds favoring the house, but from loan sharking--a business of broken kneecaps or worse. And, every dollar he squeezed out of labor unions was a dollar stolen from a working person and used for subveerting the rights and benefits unions are supposed to provide their members, And, no, a "good father" doesn't bring his sons into his criminal enterprise, no matter how much he "never wanted this for you."

But, Vito's life as portrayed by Puzo and FFC isn't a rap sheet, and GF isn't a gangster movie per se--it's a movie about a family with the Mafia as the defining milieu. Vito's life is presented with nuances and emotions that don't redeem his criminal career, but do show him as a human being with feelings ad motivations we can relate to, even if we don't approve of all of them, He has limits, and sometimes a sense of balance and fairness. By contrast: Michael's life as portrayed shows us few of those "redeeming features." .

I'll second that!

Vito, in spite of having seen first hand what a gangster who used violence--including murder-- did to his father, brother, mother and he was even more delusional we're not murderers

I don't recall his limits, and sometimes a sense of balance and fairness.
from what I remember, it was always sign or blow their brains all over

And, no, a "good father"
1. doesn't discard his sweet and hapless son because he was not cut out for his criminal enterprise
2. doesn't throw his "never wanted this for you." son under his criminal goals bus

I reckon, the Great Mafia King neglected his blood family, leaving all sorts of needless problems behind for Michael

Fredo, for once in his life All excited and undoubtedly feeling important that he was in a position to give his kid brother "Anything he wants Anything" Superman breaking a brick!

Vito left the stepped over and taking sides against the Family unaddressed leaving a deadly ticking time bomb for Michael

He did sting like a venomous bee in GFII The Greatest

You raise a great point, Lana.

I wonder what Vito knew, if anything, about the Vegas interaction. I guess it depends on how "semi-retired" he was.

Of course, it's also possible that Vito didn't consider Fredo's action taking sides against the Family, although it's hard to imagine he would have been happy about Fredo expressing an opinion in front of others.

But he might have dismissed it as Fredo being "well..." and, understanding that Fredo had no real role in the Family, not addressed it since he didn't view Fredo as a potential threat/weakness.

I reckon Vito had his finger on the pulse, his ear to the ground and knew everything

It is fleshed out in the novel, he knew Fredo was amusing himself with young girls more than a grown man should and getting slapped in public, by Greene

No doubt he wouldn't have been happy about Fredo expressing an opposing opinion in front of others.
Never tell anybody outside the family what you're thinking again

Vito didn't consider Fredo anything more than taking care of some Mickey Mouse night club somewhere! and picking somebody up at the airport! but he should have especially after the Vegas outburst Vito was slippin'

Fredo taking sides against the family would have affirmed Vito in his decision to pass him over in favor of Michael.

Vito didn't consider it happen again because It ain't the way I wanted it! leaving all sorts of needless problems behind for Michael

pimp outfit and sunglasses

Greene knew He already talked to Barzini

. Personally I never saw it as Fredo taking sides Against the Family. I think it was more of Fredo just being stupid. Even in GF 2 I genuinely believe that Fredo believed that he was helping the Corleone Family while also doing it “on his own”. Obviously we know it was stupid but I think in Fredo’s mind he thought he was doing something good

I tend to agree. Reading the novel is essential because in the novel Vito expresses what approaches contempt for Fredo's shortcomings that he demonstrates in Vegas. On the other hand, Vito seems quite pleased with Fredo because of Fredo's genius for running a hotel. Fredo's taking sides was no more a violation of family loyalty than Tom telling Sonny to negotiate with the five families rather than attack them.

My two cents worth!
from what was seen onscreen, I don't recall anything that Fredo was stupid

He knew exactly what he was doing every time
1. Vegas outburst
2. complicit in Tahoe shooting
3. brothers having drinks in Havana
4. deliberate and deceitful concealment of the Senate hearing
5. cunningly withholding information
6. boathouse outburst

No doubt even otherwise stupidity, shortcomings is no excuse for betrayal of the family and setting his kid brother up to be murdered

If he had volunteered the information he knew about the Senate hearing even after his betrayal then "redeeming feature." perhaps could give him the benefit of the doubt but he cunningly withheld it, for Michael to commit perjury and sent to prison


apples and oranges!
Fredo taking sides against the family was always for something in it for me -- on my own.
Tom telling Sonny to negotiate was business and a Gangland war, they were unlikely to win

Therein lies the issue? "Fredo had no real role in the Family" not even figurehead, face-saving role

Fredo put up with whatever was dished out by his father Vito older brother Sonny and being straightened out / slapped around in public by "we're good friends, right Moe" but couldn't handle his kid brother, Michael being the Don because it should have been Fredo

If my memory serves me right, Vito was cruelly and contemptuously dismissive of Fredo in the book as well that Fredo was never the man for the Family business – Fair enough Fredo was never a contender for the Donship and was always going to be stepped over
Sure thing no one is disputing it! However....

The Great King, Vito never foreseen any issues with anything Vito was putting in place
It never even occurred to Vito, Vito never even considered Fredo [and Connie] may not go along with what Vito had tasked with Michael, let alone

Vito "didn't view Fredo as a potential threat/weakness" No Garden chat with Fredo "but he should have especially after the Vegas outburst" This failing of Vito, left the door wide open, with a welcome mat! for Roth

Vito was slippin' indeed same as underestimating Sollozzo

. Eh I don’t buy it. I agree there was obvious resentment but it wasn’t to the point that Fredo wanted to harm Mike or even take over the Family. I think he just wanted to be looked at as a capable underboss. Look I understand that the thought of Mike killing his own brother is so horrific that many people have to try and justify it as “Fredo knew it was going to be a hit or Fredo was trying to send Mike to jail”. There is no evidence to suggest that. Let’s be honest if Fredo really wanted that to happen then he would have never told Mike about the Senate lawyer. Truth is that there was no justification of killing Fredo, it was a completely evil act which Mike comes to terms with in GF3

Fredo told Michael, "He [Johnny Ola] said there'd be something in it for me." He betrayed his brother for personal gain. "I swear to God I didn't know it was gonna be a hit." In other words, Ola didn't tell him it was gonna be a hit, and Fredo didn't ask why Ola wanted him to open the drapes to Michael and Kay's bedrooom. What did Fredo think was going to happen?

Michael's ordering of Fredo's murder was a horrific act. Michael was a reprehensibllle man, heading a reprehensible criminal empire. But, from his viewpoint, Fredo had to die. Fredo's outburst in the boathouse revealed the depth of his resentment toward his brother. Sooner or later, someone elserwould approach Fredo with yet anpther death-dealing offer. And, as Don, Michael had to prove to enemies and even friends that no one--not even his brother--gets a pass from Michael Corleone, no one finds a c***k l in his armor. As Hyman Roth said, "This is the business we've chosen."

There is no evidence to suggest Fredo knew it was going y be a hit. Fredo is portrayed as stupid and harmless. Let’s be honest what did murdering Fredo accomplish besides causing a ruftvin his immediate family(Kay and Anthony)and causing Michael to be haunted by it for the rest of his life. Doesn’t seem worth it especially considering even Mike said “he knows Toth misled him and he didn’t know they were foing to try and kill me”

It may follow more from the book than the first movie, but Michael is supposed to be a rationalist, and in this instance he's trapped by his nature. The principle that's been instilled in him is that when an enemy reveals himself he must be destroyed, and Michael lacks the ability to adjust for that. So, Fredo must die because Roth must die, Roth must die because Barzini, et al. died. It's self-activating.

No doubt He betrayed his brother for personal gain. What did Fredo think was going to happen?

How about the fact that he gave information to the Family's adversaries, opened the drapes to Michael and Kay's bedrooom, who used it to attempt the hit?

Then when Michael survived the Tahoe shooting, he deliberately and deceitfully concealed the Senate hearing and cunningly withheld the information he knew, for Michael to commit perjury because he can only get the Donship if he was dead or sent to prison

Let’s be honest Michael initially did give him a pass “I know he's scared -- tell him everything's all right. Tell him I know Roth misled him -- and he didn't know they were planing to kill me.”

Fredo's outburst in the boathouse revealed
1. the depth of his resentment toward his brother.
2. his jealousy, simmering anger at being stepped over
3. the extent of his deeper involvement with Roth against his brother

We had debated before Fredo could have been spared but Turnbull puts up an excellent case for it's justification


Michael being tormented by Fredo's murder in spite of his treachery, shows he has a heart