How you figure because dead men tell no tales They still wouldn't know who hired them

Pentangeli did and warned him

Glad it was not Rocco

Why would he be the only one? Easy enough to sacrifice a couple more lesser members.

Don't know lucab19 how to get the lesser members to go in the ride with Michael? Sightseeing tour!
Also no one least of all Roth was expecting the Castro takeover So hard to organise a massacre without the rebel uprising

Sure thing “There's a big difference” in “setting up but not actually pulling the trigger”
However the fact remains there was a traitor in the family who was complicit in the murder attempt on Michael – it still “would point to a very small group of suspects” one or more, who set their Don up to be murdered

“If no assassins were found on the compound” I believe it would have worked even more in Roth's favour because of the unease of mistrust that one of their own was not just complicit but actually killed Michael and everyone watching their backs, contributing to “the ensuing chaos” and "bloodshed"

It also would eliminate the

My take, for what it is worth!

I doubt Michael was “figuring out that Roth is his enemy” Michael seemed to have been completely taken in! by Roth even after the Tahoe shooting Michael initially believed it was someone inside telling Tom
ie: It seems Roth was not even suspected

Roth had Michael, pretty much in the palm of his hand!
I believe where the incredibly resourceful and astute Roth erred in his meticulous preparation is his overthinking and the recurring, people overestimating themselves and underestimating their opponents instead of KISS!! thus showing his hand
Also hiring assassins who couldn't shoot fish in a barrel!

Michael was lapping up! everything Roth was spinning in his web of deceit until the Tahoe shooting
We see how Michael was disgusted with himself that he hadn't seen through Roth's deceit when having drinks with Fredo in Havana

Roth would have quietly taken back! whatever Nevada holdings Roth 'lost' to Michael and continued to live like our average neighbour, harmless old man, retired investor on a pension!

Extracts:
Michael was the only one who had the perception that the "Rebels can win"

at the end of the day, it was a stroke of luck for both Michael and Roth as if Batista hadn't been forced to resign, I believe –

• Michael would undoubtedly have been murdered by Roth's pre-arranged assassins, in the military car plan or somehow if Michael refused the protection offer
• Roth too would have died smothered by Michael's bodyguard Buscetta in his hospital room

I'll concede that it's not clear that Michael already suspects Roth.

But Michael tells Pentangeli that he knows Roth is backing the Rosatos. It's hard to imagine that it didn't strike ever-paranoid Michael as odd that Roth would insert himself in a turf war over three territories in the Bronx. Backing the Rosatos was not, to coin a phrase, the act of a friend.

Michael's failure was not believing that Roth thought of him as a son, it was thinking that Roth wouldn't push back against Michael's aggressiveness, either because there was so much money at stake that Roth wouldn't want to jeopardize their deal or because Michael didn't really think Roth was someone who would resort to violence.

These different, interesting and varied takes, are what keeps this, what a nice board! still going decade after decade indeed

Fair points Woltz but the confusing discrepancies for me are -

Roth already had the Havana business So Michael is the one who “wouldn't want to jeopardize their [Roth-Michael] deal” because there was so much money at stake for Michael not Roth which I believe Roth knew as well Hence Roth's play on Michael's greed

Pentangeli always! knew never to trust Hyman Roth, Michael to never give his loyalty to Roth before his own blood indeed
Whilst Michael may have looked sheepish that's exactly what Michael did! because he didn't want his important business with Hyman Roth disturbed ie: greed blinded him even if it did “strike the ever-paranoid Michael as odd Roth backing up the Rosato brothers

It seems to me Michael's failure was “believing that Roth thought of him as a son” but you are right, Michael was not expecting any “push back” from Roth because I believe, among others -

• Roth has anointed Michael as his heir apparent! to Roth's Havana business And all it takes to cement this father-son alliance /succession, is an introduction to the Cuban President and a gift of $2 Million
• Roth will go along with Michael moving Klingman out – I doubt it even occurred to Michael as to why Roth and other partners would just let Michael take over their Hotel and be okay with it? [This is different to Greene's because the Corleones bankrolled that Hotel]

A constant theme in the Trilogy (and the novel) is how greed (and thirst for revenge) blind otherwise intelligent men to obvious dangers to themselves. Michael's greed for Roth's Cuban gaming empire blinded him to the obvious: Why would Roth, who lived in Miami and had business interests in Havana and Nevada, interest himself in a petty quarrel between the Rosatos and Pentangeli over three territories in the Bronx? Didn't it occur to him that Roth might be plotting to put the Rosatos in charge of the "Olive Oil Business" in NYC--Michael's muscle?.

Roth's greed for the $2 million blinded him to the obvious: Why would Michael, whose last words to Roth in Miami were, "Frank Pentangeli is a dead man," then spare Frankie and send him on a mission to "settle these problems with the Rosato Brothers"? Didn't it occur to him that Michael was signaling that he didn't blame Frankie for the Tahoe attack--and might blame Roth instead?

Michael could have had Roth squashed like a bug in Miami. Roth could have had Michael squashed like a bug the moment he stepped off the plane in Havana. Neither did. The marvel of the "This is the business we've chosen" scene in Roth's hotel suite in Havana is that, by that time, each of them probably knew what the other was up to, yet they both hung tough to the bitter end: Michael wanting to learn who was the traitor in his family, Roth for the $2 million.

Good Point Turnbull! Mike and Roth ate very similar. Both are very intelligent but ruthless. Both are blinded by greed and revenge. Both survive assassination attempts in the middle of the film by pure luck.

Great analysis Lana Bada bing! with the unknown traitor who actually killed Michael still in the family loose even more chaos” and "bloodshed"
He was slippin' inserting himself in a turf war backing up the Rosatos against Pentangeli the Corleone caporegime, Pentangeli as the fall guy, was his failure

I reckon this fixation in framing Pentangeli is what handed Michael the decisive victory and he was comprehensively beaten
He could have outsmarted Michael but let him outsmart him by overplaying his hand

If there was no "New York connection." I reckon Michael would have been pretty much clueless trying to figure out who was behind the Tahoe shooting

You are right Woltz, Michael was not expecting “push back” from Roth, who had just gifted their hotel! he probably would not have been, even in the frame and could have continued flying under the radar

I reckon, each of them knew or almost knew, what the other was up to, by that time of their meeting at Roth's house but "This is the business we've chosen" scene in Roth's hotel suite in Havana no doubt confirmed it

They hung on: Michael wanting to learn who was the traitor in his family and Roth for Michael to be taken home in a military car -- alone-- for his protection

My take, for what it is worth!

• Greed

I believe Roth was not a greedy man, for the Corleones' Nevada properties nor Michael's $2 million [Michael was all set to be murdered New Year's Eve with or without the $2 million] but of course if they fell into Roth's lap, Roth will take it Bonus! and added bonus Michael's own money paying for his own murder

Michael's greed, nearly undone himself with Roth [not just people like Paulie, Fabrizio and Tessio]

• Revenge

Roth only started plotting revenge on Michael when Roth felt Roth had to “gift” Michael their Hotel, then to stop Michael “making [any] further inroads in Roth's Nevada holdings” and eyeing Roth's Havana business

In fairness to Michael, Roth was stringing Michael along among others “gifting” their Hotel and pretending “to go along” instead if Roth had been honest perhaps Michael and Roth could have worked out some mutually beneficial arrangement not dissimilar to Roth's Havana business Then both Michael and Roth could live happily for a hundred years!

How'd Michael know it was Roth?

Anybody kinda rooting for Roth to beat Mike?

red herring assassins killed and bodies into the ditch before machine gun fire

Who opened the drapes? Again!
Sure thing “red herring”

There was a car at the gates, driving off probably the killer of “the dead guys” escaping, just after the machine gun fire and Michael's guards were shouting Stop! Stop! then Halt! Also the sentry was slack leaving the gates open

Fredo little help revenge for good friend Moe

Wonder Ola played up, in addition to Roth's empty promise Donship carrot, how – among others -
1. Michael murdered Fredo's good friend [and mentor] Moe Greene
2. Fredo can't bang cocktail waitresses two at a time!
3. Fredo's kid brother, Michael is the Head of the Family
4. Fredo is being taken care of by Fredo's kid brother

No doubt he'd have really worked Fredo over, smothering him with empathy and sympathy, starting with Greene and how he had such a good life before his kid brother spoilt it all for him and then how he was stepped over what was his birthright

also real drinks, superman

• Anthony's party

I hadn't noticed this before Ref: J Geoff Malta Transcript
Did Fredo and Ola come to the party together?! in the same boat?

• Roth was slippin'!

Roth's house in Miami - If Pentangeli was small potatoes how could Pentangeli have engineered the Tahoe bedroom shooting "In my bedroom! where my wife sleeps! In my home!"

Roth's Havana Hotel room

I was under the impression they come by car
She was not happy Head of the family is kid brother not Fredo

Roth was slippin'! also Greene soliloquy

The transcript is wrong. I just went over that scene, frame by frame. As the boat pulls in, Rocco rushes over to greet the occupants. Fredo isn't among them. The very next scene shows Pentangeli, drinking from a hose, then shouting greetings at Fredo, who's wearing a very distinctive plaid jacket.that we'd have noticed if he'd disembarked from that boat.

Quite correct TB.

Thanks Turnbull so that was no Fredo ferry service! Fredo was not sent to pick people up! for the party


Thanks also Capri - the deleted scene
Fredo and Deanna arrive at Anthony's party

Deanna humiliating Fredo in every turn -
1. why Fredo was scared of his kid brother
2. lingering handshake with Merle
3. not a real man insult and in front of all those people at his brother's - the Head of the family - house
4. and in front of all the family, guests, staff

Fredo shoulda married a woman like Michael did! -- like Kay

Michael's first question -- a woman like Kay know I'm back?

Michael's questions to Tom in Vegas on Michael's return from Cuba

• First - Kay know I'm back?
• Second – Christmas gift for his son Anthony Nothing! about his daughter Mary
  Quote

  Michael: The only wealth in this world is children, more than all the money and power on Earth
  You [Anthony not?! Mary] are my treasure
• Third - Fredo

You're still my brother
Michael still offered Fredo safe passage home from Havana even after having “just learned that Fredo had betrayed him, nearly resulting in his and Kay's being killed”

What a brother! Such brotherly love because Fredo was still Michael's brother