Suppose Vito had agreed to Solozzo's deal on drugs, instead of turning him down. How would that have played out--short term and long term?

It doesn't really solve the fundamental issue that Barzini wants to take a run at the Corleones, does it? I think Barzini bides his time, and tries to become the dominant partner in the drugs business, by turning Sollozzo and Tattaglia against each other and then picking up the pieces.

I think Vito would have two sometimes conflicting goals: (1) to try to get the Sonny/Tom leadership pair up and running; and, (2) to try to accelerate (because he thinks the drugs are suicide) getting the family into legitimate businesses. Sonny would, of course, want to continue and extend the Family. I think Michael would finish his schooling, and then Vito would wow him with a "legitimate" job offer that he couldn't refuse.

Eventually, there's a Barzini-Corleone confrontation. Barzini would rather have that after Vito is gone, but I don't know if it could be put off for that long.

I agree that Barzini's plan would have been adjusted, but not abandoned. However, Tom was right: drugs was the coming thing, would generate huge income, and the Corleones woudl be the recipient of that income. Agreeing would have preserved Sonny as the heir-apparent under Vito's guidance and Vito would have escaped the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune that his attempted assassination, Sonny's murder, and Michael's descent into the family business would visited upon him. He probably would have lived longer.

Like Moe Greene later on down the line, there would be the inevitable interference from another family. Conflict would have been inevitable, with the enormous revenue potential of narcotics.

If you think about it, from a strategic standpoint the shooting of Vito worked out better in the long run. Sonny overplayed his hand and was dealt with, and Michael was pulled from the outside into the eventual head of the family. Had that not happened, an older but still rash and impulsive Sonny would have assumed control in the mid-1950s and the family likely would have collapsed on itself.

My thought on this has always been if Vito had said yes, then Barzini would have benefited the most and would have just postponed his takeover plans, using his backing to get more political power from behind the scenes, grow his empire, and then finally overwhelm the Corleones. Since Vito would have had some of his political contacts drop him, Barzini would have been the likely person to pick them up and then use them against Corleone.

I don't know what possesses anyone to think that just because Barzini wanted to take over that he could. The Corleones had everything that Barzini wanted and the Corleone family's participation in the drug trade would have only enhanced that everything. Tom made that clear in his explanation to Vito the night before they met with Sollozzo.

This raises another question: When did Vito realize that his true adversary was Barzini, not Tattaglia?

It seems, from the "could never have outfought Santino" comment, that it was only later on that Vito began to look beyond Tattaglia.

So, if Vito had said yes, and no assassination attempts were made, would he have remained oblivious of Barzini's machinations against him? Would that have given Barzini an advantage and enhanced his chances of deposing Vito?

A good question, partly because we don't know how "looped in" Vito was while he was recovering.

One thing I think is that we sometimes misread the line, "It was Barzini all along." We focus on "It was Barzini...," but I think the key is "...all along," so that Vito is telling Tom that Barzini is not just the main adversary, but the one who set the whole thing in motion. (Edit) I guess that would imply that Vito wasn't particularly suspicious of Barzini at the time Sollozzo entered the picture.

I agree that regardless of Vito's decision,Sonny was the fly in the oinment.
No matter what,Sonny as the head of the Family is a disaster in the making.
It is possible that if the Corleones went along with Solozzo and Sonny succeeded Vito,that Mike would have still become the Boss. I say this because it's almost a forgone conclusion that Sonny would have still gone to war with some or all of the other Families,whether it be over drug profits,or some other reason. I see Mike as having to step in just like he did,in order to "protect his family".

We know from the real time history of the mafia that warfare among the families and the attempts of one Don or the other to be pre-eminent is usual and customary. So, I don't think it was any different in the GF. Barzini wanted that pre-eminence regardless of what part the drug business played in it or didn't play in it. To answer Woltz, Vito was probably not oblivious to any of the Dons coveting what the Corleones had, but what could he do about it? As far as we know, Vito was doing what any Don would do to preserve what he had. He could have entered the drug business well before Sollozzo made his proposal, but he decided not to. Were there risks to that? Probably. What Vito did not calculate was Barzini's efforts to sow animus among the Dons toward Vito for Vito's refusal to participate in the drug business.

It reminds me of Vito Genovese's efforts to discredit Frank Costello in the Mafia community and thus undermine his leadership.

It would have been a bad deal for the Corleones. Forgetting Vito's "personal" opposition to drugs -- he was personally against prostitution also --- he knew it was not a good business for the Corleone family. The reason he gave, that the political, police and judicial protection would dry up was only a part of it. The structure of the Corleone family was not geared to drug dealing. They ran unions and protection rackets, and probably gambling, and some prostitution. What they lacked was a "top narcotics man" like Solozzo who was already on another payroll. If Clemenza and Tessio had to be in the drug business, their territories would have been chiseled away by the other families, just as they were adfter Vito said "yes" to drugs.

I agree with everyone here who sees Barzini as the big threat if Vito had said yes to Sol's deal:

I believe that, logically, Sol would have approached Barzini first with his deal. Sol would have seen that Barzini--the would-be capo di tutti cappi in waiting--would have the most to gain from the money he'd make with Sol on drugs because it would help him push past Vito. Barzini probably told him that Vito would never make a deal if he knew that Barzi was Sol's partner, so he said, "Go to Tattaglia. He's a pimp--Vito's not afraid of him. Tell Tatt anything you want, but I'll be your silent partner."

So, if Vito had said yes, his capital and his police and political protection for Sol would be making Barzi stronger, putting him in a better position to move against Vito. Equally if not more important, Vito would have the problem of controlling greed within his own family. The novel says that Sonny was hot for the deal because he saw it as a way to get out from under his father's thumb. Vito was already doubtful about Sonny as his successor because of Sonny's hot-headedness. Add to that, greed, the threat to the family's police/political allies, and dealing with sharpies like Sol and (hidden) Barzi, Sonny would bring grief to the family sooner rather than later.

As I posted above, just because Barzini wanted hegemony over organized crime in NY doesn't mean he'd get it. By backing Sollozzo's drug operation, Barzini might enhance his revenue and influence. However, by providing Sollozzo with what he wanted, the Corleones would benefit in the same way.

If Tessio and Clemenza were potential usurpers, so were Barzini's capos. Sonny's hottness for the Sollozzo's deal was simple hubris; there's no guarantee that Sonny would have played any part in it and Vito would still remain as the conduit for the family's relationship with political and legal authorities.

Vito still held the trump card over the other families -- he had the politicians and judges in his pocket (this was brought up even as late as the peace summit after Sonny's murder). The Sollozzo hit on Vito was aimed at loosening that grip on those groups -- even as Vito was in surgery, the rest of the family was calculating how much of a blow it was going to be to the family.

The Corleones had far too much downside risk with the original Sollozzo deal. As Turnbull pointed out, it would have helped Barzini out, mostly by instantly giving him access to the protection from the law that Vito had spent years cultivating. Barzini can use his resources elsewhere, such as moving on Vito.

To use a historical analogy, it's like the atomic bomb development. The Soviets were years behind the Americans in development, until the critical intelligence and knowledge was virtually handed to them. Instead of being years behind the Americans, seemingly overnight, the Soviets were on par with the Americans.

By saying no, Vito could avoid the stigma of the drug trade and better keep those judges and politicians in line. When narcotics inevitably ruined neighborhoods, the attention from law enforcement would be directed to the other families involved and away from the Corleones. From a perception standpoint, the Corleones would remain more legitimate than the families in the drug trade, and thus more sympathetic from the general public.

While Sonny was hot for the deal, I doubt that Tessio and Clemenza would have usurped Vito. There was far too much respect for them to turn against him. The discord in the two capos was much more apparent after Vito gave his consent to narcotics and the other families started chiseling on Tessio and Clemenza's turf.

As we've talked about before, I think it's more likely that Sol went to Tatt first. I'm returning to it just to post something from the book I never noticed before: Maranzano was an ally with Tattaglia who "controlled prostitution in the city and what there was of the thin drug traffic at the time." So Sol was in women and Tatt was in drugs - they seem the most natural of allies.

New poster here (sad I didn't discover these forums years ago), but it strikes me that the Corleones must have had a long-term animosity towards drugs. After Vito gives his consent to allow his resources to be used to aid the drug trade, Michael comes back on the scene, and he and Vito began plotting to take the family legitimate; abandoning the drugs, prostitution, gambling and other rackets the Corleone Family had been involved in.

Vito's agreement at the meeting of the Five Families to make his legitimate connections available to Tattaglia's drug trade was purely self-serving, to allow Michael to return to the States safely. He openly admits that. But I wonder if Vito's plan even at that stage, while Michael was still hiding in Sicily, was to begin intentionally weakening the Corleone Family by capitulating to Tattaglia. Certainly in the other Families' eyes, Vito must have looked desperate; weakened in body and in resolve. Thus his vow that he would not break the peace, a sign of his submission to Tattaglia (and to Barzini, whose manipulations have assured, that at least in the other Families' eyes, he was now head of the most powerful Family).

Finally there is the fact that Coppola and Puzo had at least thought of the a fourth film where Vincent Corleone fully takes the Family into the drug trade, and thus ultimately is responsible for its downfall, suggesting a large arc that begins with Vito turning down the lucrative offer because he feared that it would weaken and even destroy the Family, Michael spending twenty years or more to legitimize the Family to pull it away from all criminal activity to ensure its survival, and finally Vincent ignoring his grandfather's warnings, plunging the Corleone Family head long into the drug trade, and realizing Vito's prediction of where involvement in the drug trade would end the Family.

But why would Sollozzo first need to go to Tattaglia instead of going straight to Vito? After all, when Vito asked what the Tattaglias would get out of the deal Sol said: my compliments.



But if Vito had given Sollozzo what he wanted, what would he have to gain by betraying him to Barzini? And Sollozzo could have easily doublecrossed Barzini once he was in business with Vito.

Sol needed help with actual on-the-street operations. Tatt was in a position to help him. Vito wouldn't want to risk getting involved in actual drug operations. "My complements" was a bit of flattery to Tom, to warm him up for the deal. Vito and Tom had to know, in advance, that Sol had approached Tattaglia. It would give him credibility for his meeting with Vito, i.e., "Tattaglia stands behind me."


But if Vito had given Sollozzo what he wanted, what would he have to gain by betraying him to Barzini? And Sollozzo could have easily doublecrossed Barzini once he was in business with Vito. [/quote]
If Sol made a secret partnership with Barzini, his money would strengthen Barzini and ultimately embolden Barzini to make a move on Vito. Sol probably thought he'd have a real partnership with Barzini after Barzini moved Vito out of the Number One spot. That would be important to Sol, because he could not for long exist as a wealthy independent operator. He knew he'd have to throw in his lot with a powerful family. Vito, if he went for the deal, would operate at arms-length. Barzini could be a real partner.

Yes, he could have betrayed Barzini, but who would be left for him as a partner?

The truth is Solozzo was just too cute by half. He shoild have taken Vito's "no" for what it was worth, and gone about his business with Barzini and Tattaglia. The idea of taking Vito out was just stupid. He was getting on in years, and an againg Vito keeping Santino in check was worth more to them than anything. A full scale war would have been averted and Michael would have never gone into the family business.

There are two lines that I consider together:

Sollozzo: "The Tattaglia family is behind me with all their people."

Vito: "But I didn't know until this day that it was -- Barzini all along...."

If Barzini is "in", but Sollozzo can't say that even after he's killed Luca and thinks he's killed Vito, then you're pretty much assuming that Sollozzo is an idiot. What is he getting for protecting Barzini at that point?

On the other hand, I think both statements make perfect sense if Sollozzo and Tattaglia are both in, but that Barzini, approached for protection or finance, has told them that it's just too big of a change, and that the Corleones must be involved (leaving it to Sol and Tat to bring that about).

I've always been skeptical about he reasoning advanced for the move against Vito. I think it comes down to Barzini coveting Vito's hegemony over the NY underworld and using Vito's No as a pretext to back Sollozzo's move against Vito. But, the drug business was going to continue with or without Vito and Barzini was going to reap its rewards either way. If Barzini could get rid of Vito in the meantime, so much the better for Barzini.

The immediate justification seems to have been that Sollozzo wanted access to the politicians and judges that Vito had in his pockets. But, as Tom points out, if Vito died, the Corleone family would lose most of its connections, and their value as partners in the drug trade would be greatly reduced. So yes, I think Barzini was simply using Sollozzo and the Tattaglias as a means to gain ascendancy over the Corleones. I think Vito figured it out pretty fast at the meeting with the other families; the way Barzini seemed to lord his newfound power over the other Families, believing that Sonny's war had heavily wounded the Corleones, and left Vito with little choice but to capitulate.

Vito should have figured it out a lot earlier. He tells Tom, after the meeting, "Tattaglia is a pimp; alone he could never have outfought Santino." Well, Tattaglia was always a pimp who didn't have the balls or the resources to fight alone. Why couldn't he have surmised that Barzini was behind Tattaglia?

I think you're expecting a lot of Vito.

He clearly suspected that there was someone behind Tattaglia but didn't have any reason to suspect Barzini over the other Dons until the meeting.

While it's been said that Barzini, as the second-most powerful Don, was the most likely candidate, that's not a compelling argument to me. Any of the other Families would have jumped at the opportunity to gain the wealth and power that ruling the drug trade would have gained them.

Vito knew this, and he knew that a mistaken guess as to his adversary would be disastrous. So he arranged a meeting where he could observe all his suspects and see if one fell into his trap. Barzini did, and this allowed Vito (and Michael) to win the war.

The Don wasn't slippin.

Woltz, I was with you until you opined about Vito's reason for calling the Dons meeting. His avowed reason was to provide an environment in which Michael could return to the US in safety. His observation about Barzini was not prompted by any effort to discover that.

Agreed that ensuring Michael's safe return was the primary concern for Vito.

But it seems unlikely, to say the least, that he knew there was a secret adversary and would make no effort to find out who it was.

Since he told Tom to make no investigations, I surmise that he hoped to be able to suss it out at the Don's meeting.

Sol only needed Vito's polital connections for protection. I'm not sure whether he needed help with actual street operations. He was a drug importer, not a dealer, and so he could sell his drugs to the "blacks" and other street gangs.

If Vito said "yes," there would have been no assassination attempt. Instead, Sonny would evetually take over the family business, and Barzini would have destroyed the Corleones. Because Vito said 'no," Mihael ended up taking over the family. Funnny how things work out.

Maybe DT. But I think that there is a body of Board opinion that believes, as Vito did, that Barzini was pulling the strings and wanted to supplant Vito as the head of NY's underworld. Thus, even if Vito did assent to participation in the drug trade, Barzini wold have still pursued Vito's demise.

Oli, thats my point. If Vito said yes, the Corleones would not have wont out.