The whole scenario seems forced. Until Sonny spoke out, there was no need for Sollozzo to even consider eliminating Vito. The drug operation could certainly proceed without Vito's help.

I'm in with olivant; I see no reason that Sollozzo whacks Vito if he has nothing to gain from it. Barzini could certainly offer up the financing and help Sollozzo fly mostly under radar with the drug deals. Perhaps after they build up the wealth, they can buy their own political influences.

A big fulcrum in any potential plan to whack Vito is Luca Brasi, as we well know and which has been discussed at length. If Sonny doesn't speak out of turn, would Vito have sent Luca to try to dig for dirt on Sollozzo? I say no. Vito has no interest in the drugs trade, and without Sonny playing into it, that's the end of it for him.

In the original scenario, Sollozzo knew that he had to whack Luca before he could safely go after Vito. He's a new guy on the block, so it's likely that Barzini or Tattaglia advised him on that course of action. Neither Don would have cause to advise Sollozzo of that fact if they wouldn't sanction the hit though.

In the fait accompli scenario, Sollozzo would go 'lone wolf' and call the hit on Vito himself. If he succeeds, Tattaglia is definitely caught up in the whirlwind, Barzini too if the trail leads back to him. In addition to the potential for war between the three families, they've got Luca Brasi to deal with as well. If Vito's dead, "not even Sonny will be able to call off Luca Brasi." Offering Sollozzo up as a sacrifice at that point might be too little, too late.

Therefore, I'm of the mind that Barzini would have Sollozzo pre emptively whacked if he got wind of Sollozzo wanting to go lone wolf in the alternate scenario.

It seems most likely to me that at the time Sollozzo meets with the Corleones, Barzini has already told Sollozzo, "I can't touch this unless the Corleones are involved." Under that scenario, Barzini's worst outcome is that Vito agrees and Barzini makes money. More likely, though, is that old-fashioned Vito says no, leaving the forceful Sollozzo a choice between going home and trying to eliminate Vito as an obstacle - and that's really no choice at all.

But Vito wasn't an obstacle. He was merely an asset for Sollozzo's use if Vito agreed to be such.

I don't know about that.

Saying Vito wasn't an obstacle presumes that Vito would have stood idly by while the drug trade proceeded without his involvement and his political influences would have as well.

Is it really likely that Vito would watched from the sideline as his rivals got rich from drugs? No.

Surely Vito would have used his political connections - immediately or later on - to attempt to stamp out the drug trade, get Sollozzo and his couriers deported, etc.

So Vito had to be brought on board or neutralized.

Vito: "and good luck to you -- as best as your interests don't conflict with my interests. Thank you."

Exactly. I read that as a warning. Sollozzo probably did, too.

I think anything that increases the power of another Family would conflict with the Corleones' interests.

At minimum, Sollozzo had to consider the possibility that Vito would use his political might against him. That's why I think the hit would likely have proceeded regardless of Sonny's outburst.

The real problem here is that Vito underestimated Solozzo's strength. He had the Tattaglias and Barzini, and probably the other families all ready to go into the drug trade. Sooner or later they would have begun to chisel into the Corleone terrritories all over New York...including Harlem, and Tessio and Clemenza's areas of interest. It would not be long until the lower ranking hoods under Corleone control would begin selling drugs themselves, and then Vito would really have had a mess on his hands..gaffe or no gaffe. The bottom line here is the Don was slippin'

It *was* a warning. Sollozzo's interests (drugs) did conflict with Vito's interests (his political connections).

I think that Barzini knew Vito would refuse. After all, Barzini knew how Vito operated as they had begrudgingly worked together for years (with the rest of the Families) so he knew that Vito was an old "Mustache Pete" who didn't want drugs around. So I think he pushed for Sollozzo to talk to Vito, knowing that if refused Sollozzo would not take a "no" lightly (as he was also a man of respect and couldn't let another man dictate things to him), and then Sollozzo could easily be manipulated into making a move against Vito with Barzini and Tattaglia backing him up.

Either way, Barzini wins. If Vito by some miracle says yes, then Barzini profits, Vito loses some connections who would not want to be involved in drugs (and maybe Barzini, since he's doing things discretely, picks them up instead), and Sollozzo can be a scapegoat later if needed.

When Vito says no, Barzini can move against him. If Vito gets killed, he throws Sollozzo and Tattaglia to the wolves after a war and cleans up the pieces afterwards. If Vito lives, well nobody knew Barzini was involved at that point so he can still throw Tattaglia and Sollozzo to the wolves.

Thing is that Barzini (and Sollozzo and everyone else) underestimated Michael