Would Mike allowed him to live?

I think so. If Fredo had opened up earlier about the plan against Michael, and his own involvement in it, I think Mike would have spared his brother's life. Maybe he still would have cast him out of the family for good, but he wouldn't have resorted to killing him.

What do you think?

Short term, yes. Michael was not offing Fredo in Cuba.

Long term, possibly but not certainly. Would Fredo have volunteered more information than he did later at the boathouse? His emotions may have been more piqued, allowing for more of a purging of the soul so to speak, which could have saved his life.

My instincts tell me that he would have been no more forthcoming, so his fate would have been the same regardless.

I'm guessing that Michael might have been inclined to give his brother a pass. But the outburst in the boat house revealed the depths of Fredo's resentment of Michael--and his justification of that resentment. Fredo also revealed that he knew they had Pentangeli, and that the Senate lawyer, Questadt, belonged to Roth--indicating that he was far closer to Roth than he let on. Had he revealed that info earlier, he could have shown Michael he was serious about helping him avoid the Senate perjury trap.

I can see the points about Michael not killing Fredo in Havana. But to play devil's advocate, here are the reasons Michael could have had Fredo die in Cuba: 1) it was bedlam there with the overthrowing of Batista for (presumably) Castro. Michael would have had an easier way to have Fredo killed amidst the chaos. Plus at that point, Michael believes that Roth was killed by his bodyguard. He may have figured that killing Fredo in Cuba, combined with Roth's assassination, were the end of those responsible for the Tahoe attempt.

2) Michael's look of devastation at learning that Fredo was the traitor. Let's not forget that the disappointment Michael must have felt was immeasurable. I admit that it's unlikely, but what if just once Michael acted more like Santino than his father when learning Fredo was behind the Tahoe attempt? The odds say Michael would remain in control, but he still had his own faults.

I love the "what ifs" regarding this movie. Great topic.

IMHO,Fredo would have been a dead man either way. Mike knew about the betrayal in Cuba,so the boat house scene,while poignant,didn't result in Mike suddenly deciding to kill his brother.I believe that Mike made the call much earlier.

To make my case,I am going with a few assumptions that I think are feasible.
One,in the overall Mafia community,the news of Fredo's treachery would get out to the other Families.
Two,Mike's rep would suffer by having his own brother go against him.
Three,the Corleone's would be seen as a Family beset by internal problems,hence a possible takeover target.
Four,Mike himself would be a laughing stock.

Given Mike's general ruthlessness,and his twisted enjoyment of his newfound power,he saw no other option than to kill Fredo,knowing that regardless of the official version,the people "in the loop" (both friends and foes) would know damn well that Mike killed his own brother.

In Mike's mind,this was the sledgehammer move,much like the totally unnecessary hit on Roth at the airport.
His only concern was to show the (under)world,that the Corleone's,like the Bochiccio's,would not leave any insult unavenged,regardless of the consequences,and that Mike was not to be crossed by anyone.

He would have saved Fredo in Cuba, and perhaps been able to get more out of him than he did. Fredo would still live....as long as his mother was alive.

It sounds plausible to me. At the car outside Battista's presidential palace as Michael was preparing to leave for the airport, there was real concern in his voice as he called out: "Fredo! Come with me! You're still my brother. Fredo!"

It sounded to me as if he still cared for his brother...

Keep your friends close and your enemies closer.

One thing that's always puzzled me:

Michael was frantic to get Fredo on that plane out of Havana--I'm guessing because he wanted to pump Fredo for more information on his betrayal. First thing he asks Tom when he's back in Nevada is, "Where's my brother?" But when Tom tells him that he think's Fredo's in NY, Michael simply says, "Get word to him," etc. Suddenly the pressure was off. Michael could have arranged to have Fredo found and brought to him ASAP. Instead, he waited until after his ass got into a crack at the Senate hearing befoe telling Tom, "I want to speak to Fredo."

I think he wanted to see if Fredo would come back to him, somewhat on his own. He never did.

Quick question, besides the shooting at the compound, how involved in Michael's assassination was Fredo? I mean I know Johnny Ola called him while he and his wife were asleep but after that did they show anymore communication between Fredo and Roth? Did Fredo expect Michael to be killed in Cuba? Or do you guys think he had an inclination that it was possible?

As Fredo told Michael, "I didn't know it was gonna be a hit." I believe him.

Fredo was naive but I don't know if he was THAT naive.

His outburst in the boathouse comes from a lot of deep seeded anger. I think Fredo may have told himself it wasn't going to be a hit, knowing that it was. I think the most logical explanation for whoever opened the drapes is that it was Fredo.

And the connection between Fredo and Ola was pretty good if they'd already been to the Superman show in Havanna before.

True... what do you guys think would have happened if after the attempted assassination at the compound Fredo would have fessed up about knowing Johnny ola and hyman roth but then told Michael he had no clue that was going to happen, then he himself said he wanted nothing to do with the business ... would Michael have respected that or had Fredo killed?

Fredo was involved with Roth and Ola far more than he let on:

http://www.gangsterbb.net/threads/ubbthr...true#Post472494

Roth and Ola didn't tell Fredo it was gonna be a hit. Fredo didn't ask if it was gonna be a hit. So, he literally didn't know it was gonna be a hit. He could have inferred it was gonna be a hit if he gave it a moment's thought. He didn't want to.

He didn't have the ability to. He wasn't smhat, he was dumb, like everybody said. He couldn't do things.

Only true TB if Roth told him what they intended to do that they did do. Don't forget that Fredo also told Ola that he and Roth lied to him.

one must remember this was the second time fredo went against the family. in GF 1 he sided with moe greene. fredo's outburst at michael's house shows that fredo can not be trusted. fredo is both stupid and weak two qualities one can't have according to michael. i am wondering who killed the two assassins. obviously someone at the compound.