So in the Sollozzo meeting scene in GF I, where Don Vito turns down the Turk's offer to go into the narcotics business with the Tattaglia family, he gives his reason as follows:

"It's true, I have a lot of friends in politics, but they wouldn't be friendly very long if they knew my business was drugs instead of gambling, which they regard as a – a harmless vice. But drugs is a dirty business. It makes, it doesn't make any difference to me what a man does for a living, understand. But your business is, uh, a little dangerous."

Later in the film, at the meeting of The Commission (was it called The Commission?) soon after Santino's murder, he explains his reason for having refused Sollozzo's deal, by restating his objections as follows:

"...I believe this drug business is gonna destroy us in the years to come. I mean, it's not like gambling or liquor, even women, which is something that most people want nowadays and it's forbidden to them – by the pezzonovantes in the church. Even the police departments have helped us in the past with gambling and other things. They're gonna refuse to help us when it comes to narcotics. And I believed that then, and I believe that now."

There's every reason to believe that Vito's concerns were absolutely straightforward & sincere. And yet, when Barzini presses him on the matter, he readily relents, and tacitly agrees to make the judges & politicians in his pocket available to support & protect the new drug trade, with no further resistance - despite his apparent conviction that the judges & politicians will "run for cover". Why?

It just seems like such a stark & sudden capitulation to make for someone who had such strong feelings against it. Had it become clear to Vito that Barzini's insistence would guarantee further trouble unless Vito relented? Did Vito believe at that point that he was out of all other options, and that playing ball on the narcotics trade was his only way of guaranteeing Michael's safe return to New York? Is it possible that since the Sollozzo meeting, Vito had come to view the narcotics trade as inevitable anyway, so that he might as well make an initial show of resistance before The Commission, in order to create as much negotiating room for himself as possible? Any other possible motives and/or dynamics going on here?

Thoughts?

No, it was a capitulation. After Sonny't death, Vito wanted the war to end. He wanted Michael back home, and he knew if he did not make the peace it might spell the end for the Corleones. At that stage his only hope was Michael, wh no one suspected would do what he did, let alone become what he became.

Barzini was there to facilitate this surrender and allow Vito the honor to make it look like a compromise. Of course Barzini had plans of his own for the Corleones in any case.

There has been past discussion over whether or not this was "The Commission," and the consensus is it was not. It was more a meeting among top dons across the country who had taken sides in this war, and who one way or anohter were interested in getting into the drug business.

I have a related question. In the meeting Barzini says its not like the old days "when we could do anything we want." What did he mean by that? When could they do anything they wanted ever?

I agree that it was not a Commission meeting.Vito even tells Tom to arrange a meeting "with the Five Families",not the "Commission". As to Barzini's statement,my guess is that he was referring to the time before the Families acheived great wealth and power,and were pretty much loosely connected gangs. With the advent of the modern Syndicate,it was very easy to infringe on another Families rackets or territories,so I think Barz meant that among the Mafia in general,each Family's interests could overlap with those of another Family,therefore no Boss or Family could just do as they pleased.I believe he was referring to the increasing need for all of the Families to come to a consenus on major moves like narcotics. His statement was obviously aimed at Vito as well by implying that,if the Families OK'd drugs ,then he could not "do as he wanted" by refusing to share his protection and influence,but rather,would have no choice in the matter. It was one thing to run your numbers and gambling rackets the way you wanted in your city in the old days ,but quite another thing to stand in the way of a multi-Family,multi-million dollar business because of some moral principle.
His statement about doing whatever we want, I believe, was meant in the context of the Mafia,not the outside world.He was saying that there was no room for loose cannons in the modern day Cosa Nostra.

Vito comported himself cleverly at that meeting. By expressing his opposition to drugs at first, he was explaining his resistance--and setting himself up to capitulate. That would make him look weak, and so the other Dons might be misled into thinking that it wouldn't be dangerous to let Michael return to America.

Barzini meant that in the "old days," Mafia families ran domestic rackets in their own territories. But the narcotics business was global, and protection of it required police/political protection that crossed individual families' territories--notice that at the end, Barzini says that "...Don Corleone will give it protection in the East"--not just New York.

Well, that's a major reason why I wasn't sure. There were quite a few more dons at that meeting than just five, presumably representing families from Detroit, from Chicago, and from various other cities even farther afield. Although Vito specified only "the five families" in his instructions to Tom, clearly the scope of the meeting extended quite a bit beyond the five families in the NYC area.

I think he also knew Michael would exact revenge before the meeting, it was a forgone conclusion after Sonny was killed and he knew Michael was already involved after the shooting.

I think that is why he gave in as well, he knew there would be revenge at some point. Many seemed to think the Corleone's were done as a family and I think Vito knew it was the right time to give in, stop the violence temporarily and be a great chance to get Michael home safe after the bombing.

Do you guys think that the Don knew that Michael was going to have the heads of the other 5 families and Moe Green wacked at the time of this meeting? After Michael returned to the states the Don/Michael had Tom step down from Consigliore and the Don wouldn't let Clemenza and Tesio step out on their own. Also, whatever happened to the drug business after Michael and his family relocated to Las Vegas, do they say anything about this in Godfather II or III that I may have missed?

Strictly speaking, the five families of New York included the Corleones. So the mass assassination near the end of GF I was executed against the heads of the other four New York families, plus Moe Green.

No, I don't think that it had been planned at all at the time of the meeting of the dons. I believe it was cooked up later, between Michael & Vito, sometime after Michael returned home from Sicily.

As for the drugs business, that's a good question. I'd be curious to know whether Vito's predictions about the difficulties of obtaining & maintaining protection for the narcotics trade ever came to pass in actual application - and if so, whether any protection that was lost as a resultl might have also had a damaging effect upon any of the Corleones' other illicit businesses, i.e. racketeering, gambling, loan sharking, etc.

This is only my opinion,but I don't think that Vito had any idea that Mike was going to pull off the mass execution of the Dons and Greene. When he talked to Mike about being on the lookout for a traitor in the Family,he probably figured that Mike would deal with it and get back to the Corleone's affairs.
I don't believe that even Vito had any inkling of the monster that lurked within Michael,and the incredible,ruthless violence that he was capable of.To take it a step further,I think that if Vito did know what Mike had planned,he would have done his best to talk him out of it. An old school mobster like Vito would have seen a mass murder of his rivals as the kiss of death for his Family and a generator of more heat than even narcotic trafficking.

Didn't the Risoto's take over the drug business?

From the novel:

Vito: "So it's to no purpose to wait any longer. When will you start."

Michael: "The old man planned a lot of it."

In a deleted scene when Michael returns from Sicily and tells Vito of the idea to take everyone out, Vito says he gave his word he would never do that, to which Michael replies something to the effect "Well I am not bound by your word." I think when Vito made his pledge that HE would never be the one to make the peace, he had Michael in mind, and he knew his day had passed. This was confirmed when Michael got back from Sicily. By then he was in it up to his ears. He had promised his father he was "with him" he had killed Sol and McCluskey, and his wife was killed by a car bomb intended for him. This gave hom only one option. It also explaiins why he spent a year in the Us ... maybe more...under Vito's tuteledge BEFORE he bothered to contact Kay.

Vito also said, in the garden scene, "This wasn't enough time, Michael." I'm sure he meant not enough time to get everything in place before the massacre. He added, "Remember, whoever comes to you with this Barzini meeting, he's the traitor." Tells me Vito knew.

This.

The Five Families practically are the Commission. However, Vito's request for a meeting was broadly interpreted as all the other dons outside of New York were also invited.

I took it to mean that there wasn't enough time for Vito's dream of Michael becoming "Senator Corleone,Governor Corleone" to come true. It seems that Mike is placating his father by assuring him that "We'll get there,Pop" knowing full well that he was in too deep to ever think about becoming a "pezza novante". This is only my opinion,but I believe that when Vito warned Mike about the traitor and the Barzini meeting,he expected him to catch the rat and neutralize him. I don't think he was aware of ,or giving advice as to Mike's plan to exterminate the Dons and Greene. It is a big step to go from one traitor in the Family to a mass execution,the likes of which had never been seen (at least in the GF universe).

Lou, you make an interesting and well-reasoned case. But, I think Vito cpnceded that his dreams of "Senator Corleone...Governor Corleone" were long past--he prefaced it by saying, "I never wanted this for you, Michael," which tells me he had conceded that Michael had to be new Don, not a political pezzanovante.

Did Vito envision Michael just whacking the traitor? Or did he infer or know about the Great Massacre of 1955? That's a good question. I infer from the novel that Vito knew he would act against more than the family traitor. But, as you probably know, in the novel, Michael only whacks two Dons--Barzini and Tattaglia.

I agree that Vito was heartbroken by the thought that his one hope for Corleone legitimacy was forever gone. One of the most touching scenes in the film is when Hagen tells Vito that it was Michael who killed Solozzo. The look on Vito's face speaks volumes.In one life changing minute,Vito's world is shattered,his noble intentions are destroyed,and he is no longer able to pretend that he has produced any sons that are not destined to be gangsters.

Yes, that's a great moment. I love the nervous glances among the sons when Vito asks about Michael. They know the news will not be well-received.

There's also the complementary scene at the hospital. Michael tells Vito "I'm with you now, Pop." Vito seems to smile, but also sheds a tear. Is he happy to have Michael back in the fold or sad to see the beginning of the end of his dreams of legitimacy? Or a little bit of both?

Its a little bit of both. At that point Vito still may have had plans for Michael to become "legitimate," and it is possible he thought that by Michael being "with him" that his days of rebellion were over. Likewise when he returned home to learn it was Michael who killed Solozzo, he was saddened because he realized that Michael was now trapped into a life Vito did not want for him.