Had Michael had gotten killed before he made his way back to America, and Santino was already dead...with the Don sick, who do you think he would choose to run the family?

Only two choices, Tessio or Clemenza.

Clemenza with Rocco as a capo regime, and maybe also Neri if he was around at the time.

Looking back it was a mistake by Barzini not to make plans for Michael's "accidental" death because that would have backed Vito, who promised revenge, if anything happened to Michael, into a corner. Did he really have the muscle to take out "some of the people in this room?"

Certainly not Fredo.

As we learn in the "fishtank" scene, Clemenza says Vito promised Tessio and him that they could "form our own family" after he was gone. I emphasized "our" because it imples a dual Donship. And that would have been a fatal dilemma for Vito: there's never been a dual Donship. Plus, I doubt that either Tess or Clem would have accepted being an underling to the other. They'd either have fought to the death for supremacy, or divided up Corleone territories among them. Either scenario would have been fatal to the Corleone family.

As for Vito's threat ("I'm going to blame some of the people here"): I think it was a threat of muscle but more of withholding police/political support of the drugs business. Another war, coupled with withdrawal of support for drugs, would have decimated the families even if Vito lost.

Vito was nice enough to characterize Fredo by sayiing "Fredo was....well...." and his voice trailed off. Michael said Fredo was "weak and stupid." But no it could not have been Fredo.

As for Dual Dons, there are two possibilities in the fishtank dialogue. No question Clemenza said "Our own Family." But Clem was no grammarian.. he could have meant families. Assuming that is not the case, we do see something like a dual family in GFII, namely the Rosato Brothers. They seem to operate as partners and as equals. I could see a Clemenza-Tessio alliance of two smallish families with well defined territories and areas of operation.

DT, I agree with your grammatical interpretation of "Our own Family." But the Rosatos were operating seemingly as a separate family only because they chose to do that. They bossed a crew within the Corleone family, but wanted more, were recalcitrant, and had the backing of a formidable OC Corleone opponent.

However (and it's a big one), the whole idea of one or more capos in a family being given permission by their Don to form another OC family is patently absurd.

Fredo as boss would be recipe for disaster. Could have made a good comedy film out of it.

Dontomasso,Wouldn't Vito have had the same muscle that Michael later used to take out the Dons? All of the shooters were available to him while Mike was enroute.

Not at the point when Michael would have had his "accident." The secret Rocco regime was not yet in place, and the family had suffered heavy losses in the war. Remember to keep the whole thing a secret, it took Michael several years to quietly rebuild the family's muscle, and during that time he had to be humiliated by Moe Green, and had to allow Barzini to chisel on Tessio and Clemenza's territories all without retribution.

Further, I am not sure that with Sonny dead and Vito as sick as he was that an operation as massive as the one Michael pulled off could have been done. All the family had was a sick and aging Vito who had pretty much lost it, Tom "Lets negotiate a deal" Hagen, Tessio (a traitor) and Clemenza.

Had Mike been killed,I wonder if Vito would have even had the heart to avenge him. Being the calculating practical type, he figures what's the percentage? If he gets one or two of the Dons,he seals his own fate. He's got 2 sons gone,a weakened Family,and a broken spirit.He's got to know that Barz or Tatt's guy will get him and maybe Tom (maybe Fredo too, but would it matter?).
The Family passes to the strongest ,and the Corleones are a memory.

He doesn't avenge Mike,his bluff is called, and the other Dons bide their time until their move is made.The Family passes to the strongest,and the Corleones are a memory.

I think with Michael dead, Vito pulls a Frank Costello,retires,and lets the chips fall as they may.

I think that Fredo, while he would have been terrible, would have been the only logical choice, although even that would have caused strife because he was, well... Fredo.

If Michael had been killed, the Corleones would have been torn apart by civil war. If Fredo was chosen to be the Don via legitimate succession, Clemenza and/or Tessio would have probably broken off and started a war. If Clemenza was chosen, Tessio would have broken off, and Fredo probably would have been convinced into betrayal a la GFII; vice versa if Tessio was chosen, Clemenza would have probably resented it. It couldn't have been Rocco since he wasn't established. Neri wasn't around at that point.

It could have been Tom (even if adopted, Fredo might have deferred to him as his "older brother"), but that might still cause problems with Clemenza and/or Tessio (but perhaps not as they seemed to be willing to accept Tom as consiglieri), and would have made the Corleones the laughingstock of the families anyways since Tom wasn't Italian, much less Sicilian.

In short, without Michael the family would be destroyed in one way or another.

And with Michael the family was destroyed by itself.

I honestly don't think Fredo had any chance to ever run the Family,either alone or as part of a ruling panel. He was just too mind-numbingly, breathtakingly stupid. To have any shot at the Boss seat,he would have needed the consent of the main Capos,as well as their support and advice. I don't see anyone in the Family wanting to serve under him. The Corleones would not only be outcasts,but a huge laughingstock. The other Dons would have a field day with him,and he would probably have wound up getting killed by his own guys.

One option could have been to let Fredo serve as a Don for the public while Vito alongs with Tessio, Clemenza, Tom, Neri and Rocco pull the strings in the background. Although risky, this might lead to an underestimation of the Corleones, which would be great for an attack against Barzini and Tattaglia.

Possible, Danito but not likely. As far as I can tell the only successful operation Fredo was a part of was the blackmailing of Geary. The set up happened in a mickey mouse whorehouse he ran, and it could not have been pulled off without his foreknowledge and assistance.

Come to think of it, I am surprised he didn't spill the beans of this to Roth.

I think Tessio and Clemenza would have done a better job than Michael.

The problem is that Tessio and Clemenza in the best of circumstances were of an older generation, schooled in the "old ways," and seen by people like Barzini as "Moustache Petes." While they may have run the Olive Oil Business better than Michael, they did not have the savvy to move to Vegas, take over casinos, make deals with Hyman Roth, let alone allow newcomers like Rocco and Neri from trying to move them out. Their only chance to have maintained the family would have been for them to serve as interim dons with Hagen as consigliere, and build from within, and find a successor. That is a tall order.

After Vito's death,the Corleone's future lies in the hands of only one man, and that man is Michael. No Mike, no Family.

Forget Fredo,and neither Tessio or Clemenza would have the ability to take the Family in the direction it needed to go. Even if they ventured into the casino business,Roth would have succeeded with them where he failed with Mike.

None of the other possible successors would have the experience or respect to take over. No matter who tried to take the top seat,they would probably try to make Hagen an ally.Given all the possible turmoil,he might just say "the Hell with this" and march down to Wall Street with his resume.

Sure, why not? Wall Street offers a well-established career path for crooked lawyers. Tom would feel right at home!

If Michael was killed by Barzini in Sicily, I think it would be a fair assumption to make that Vito would have went into full war mode and would have no doubt have called in all of the "favors" he had been sitting on all that time. With nothing to lose it would Vito would have probably be killed eventually, but not before he'd have wiped the Tatagglias out and maybe Barzini too.

If Michael had died along with Appolonia, there would never have been a meeting, so Vito would not have known that it was Barzini all along.

Vito may have gone into war mode and destroyed Tattaglia, but Barzini would have sat back and watched his cat's paw and his enemy weaken each other. It would have been ideal for him.

The other possibility was that Vito would have been totally destroyed by Michael's death. He was already slippin', personally weaker and at the head of a Family on the way down. He may have stepped aside and told Tom to negotiate a settlement, which would have led Sal and Pete to fight each other for control.

Or he would have allowed them to form their own Family, which would have been doomed to failure under an untenable co-Donship.

In any scenario, I think that, if the car bomb kills Michael, Barzini wins.

Agreed. If Michael had died, all Vito could have negotiated for was his life and perhaps that of his family and maybe Tom. He would have had to give up everything including Tesssio and clemenza and he would have been out of the game entirely.

I think Vito would have known someone bigger than Tattaglia would have been behind Michael's assassination. Tattaglia, as we know, was considered to be nothing but a pimp by Vito. That's why he sent Luca on that suicide mission, to ferret out, or at least point to, the real power behind Taggalia. He know instinctively that Tattaglia was too small-time to simultaneously back Sollozo's big heroin racket and try and assassinate him.

Personally I don't think Vito would have steeped away if Michael was killed, especially after loosing Sonny. I think though you're right in that Vito would have annihilated the Tattaglias but would have eventually been killed by Barzini, who would of had, by that time, more resources than the depleted Corelones. Or who knows, Vito could have gotten lucky himself and killed Barzini too.

Vito without Michael didn't have the muscle to win, even against tattaglia. Had he made a move on Tatt, all the other families and Barzini leading the charge would have gone after Tessio Clemenza and Vito.

If I remember right even Vito mentioned (could be thinking someone else) that the family was way stronger than most on the street thought due to the way Vito was real quiet about his business and how he conducted it. No way Tattaglia would have handled them and I'm not even sure Barzini would have taken over that easily.