This idea did not come from me, but it is worth posting and makes a case I do not recall having been made before on this oft discussed topic.

To get to the conclusion we need to ask some questions:

1. Who was smart enough to be counted on by Roth's people to do it?

2. Who would have had unfettered access to Michael's bedroom, and even if caught there by a servant or even Kay could explain?


3. Who was constantly being put down and rejected by Michael?

4. Who understood that the olive oil business was being supplanted by legitimate casinos in Vegas and Havana?

5. Who uderstood better than anyone that the business model of the Corleone family had changed from transactions based on Sicilian omerta and loyalty to a Jewish investor, foregin dictators and crooked Senators?
6. Who understood all the factors in point five beter than Michael?

7. After Michael's death who would replace him as unquestioned head of the family?

8. Who objected to the killing of Roth but not of Fredo?

9. Who could ( and did) get away with it because he was beyond suspicion?

10. Who saw Michael for what he really was?

The person who opened the drapes. Tom Hagen.

Wow!
This brings new light to the Tom-Michael-scene. Tom played Michael like a puppet.
(And it explains Tom's tears. )

Also, if you remember, Tom was excluded from the conversation with Johnny Ola. Ola probably knew this would happen, thus keeping Michael in sight while Tom was free to go do what he had to do.

I think it was Merle who unwittingly opened the drapes. He was insulted by Michael and he wanted to humiliate him by opening the drapes so everyone could watch Michael undress. The coincidence here was that the hitmen were going to shoot up the window anyway. The drapes being open was just a convenience.

Nah. Like Fredo, Merle would have opened the drapes in the wrong bedroom. Either Anthony or Mary would have been hit.

Tom Hagen profited even without Michael being killed. Michael makes Tom de facto Acting Boss while he goes with Roth to investigate the shooting. This could allow for more wheeling and dealing with Roth in the background. Who better to help set up Michael with the Congressional hearings behind the scenes than a guy who knew the legal system better than anyone in the Family? Fredo would be useless to the Congressional Hearings unless he himself had testified.

Fredo wasn't in the loop when it came to big family things--He couldn't tell you that Frank Pentangelli was Michael's Capo in New York and Willie Cicci was his top Soldier. Someone like Tom would know all of this.

Tom Hagen was bitter at Michael as shown in the scene where he's contemplating moving away, out of the Family, without even telling Michael. He has no emotional connection to Michael outside of his vestige of Family Loyalty to Vito, which probably fully died when Mama died.

Fredo was weak and stupid and probably the extent of his treachery was giving out info which hurt the Corleones. But he didn't know it was going to be a hit. I think, even as bitter as he was and as naive as he was, he knew opening the drapes would mean a hit, and probably wouldn't have betrayed Michael to death.

Fredo made for a good scapegoat. The only guy who was actually losing money, influence and a place in the new Family business model was Tom. He was being left out of meetings and really had no place in the new Family and was losing money and only regained power and authority when Michael was nearly killed.

He was also the only guy Michael didn't suspect at all and the only one Michael fully trusted and thus didn't investigate besides Fredo.

Fredo wasn't strong or tough enough to kill the would-be assassins, especially so quickly. He couldn't even bring himself to hit his disrespectful wife, much less coldly and brutally take out two hitmen rapidly. And the assassins weren't hired out of New York...Who could hire assassins, not from New York, and also have the toughness to have them killed cooly and quickly but also the fear of being discovered? Who would have the means and intelligence to have the murder of the would be assassins covered up?

I'm sure Tom had men working under him directly, if Fredo did.

Consider how Tom handles the murder of the hooker. Cold, fast, with no real way to connect it to himself.

Keep your friends close but your enemies closer. Tom knew that lesson as well as anyone. Michael's trust in Tom might've been too blind to see it.

I also find it suspect that Tom has no emotion toward the unspoken plan to have Fredo whacked. Fredo was as much a brother to him as Michael or Sonny. Michael at least had guilt. Tom didn't seem to have any emotion over it, or at least try to counsel Michael not to have Fredo killed.

He showed more regret about having Frank Pentangelli kill himself, and more apprehension to Roth being killed, than he did to having Fredo killed.

Surely not Tom. He lacked the muscle and personal force to be the new boss. He'd also have to face much stronger opposition in Rocco and Neri. No way would they bow to him.

I believe part of Roth's strategy, had the Tahoe shooting succeeded, was to pit the members of the family against each other for succession. That would have had them fighting each other--to his advantage.

Au contraire. Fredo was already set up as the scape got. Tom could sweep in, "discover" Fred's meeting with Johnny Ola in Beverly Hills, turn Rocco and Neri on him, and give Roco and Neri more power and money within the organization.

Interesting theory that does appear to be pretty well-grounded but Fredo was the traitor, and if he didnt open the drapes he had someone do it for him. Tom's loyalty was unwavering. At least that is how I want to believe it.

Great summary! I have to say it sounds possible, even though I don't want it to be like that. I would certainly explain why the camera follows Tom like that in the scene where he leaves Michael with Johnny Ola.

Tom would never. If anyone is truly loyal to Michael it's him. This would be like accusing Davos that he betrayed Stannis.

Exactly!! Great analogy btw.