Suppose Michael's plan to take out Roth, once it was confirmed by Fredo's verbal "...yeah, Johnny Ola knows these places like the back of his hand..." blunder, was successfully carried out by the bodyguard?

Would Fredo have gotten off the Island? Would a different chain of events have taken place with Roth out of the picture, with Questadt and the hearings?

Interesting Point. If Roth was out of the picture at that point things would have been different. i still think fredo would have been killed simply because mike was so paranoid at that point that he wasn't thinking rationally

DC, I don't think it would have made a difference. Michael had no way of knowing that the bodyguard was foiled twice: once by Roth being taken away to the hospital, and then by the military. I think he assumed that Roth was already dead by the time he showed up at the presidential party.

I always wondered who Michael had in his camp in Cuba. Was it just his bodyguard? If so, seems like a slim margin.

I think he brought only the bodyguard to Cuba to make Roth think he was "weak," or at least not loaded for bear. Also, the bodyguard was part of the deception: if he'd brought Rocco and/or Neri, it'd signal Roth that he didn't think them possibly complicit in the shooting. But he held the advantage: knowing when and how Roth planned to have him whacked, he simply would act first. And he needed only the bodyguard to carry it out.

Yes TB, but I wonder if Michael had other resources already in Cuba. If he knew about Roth's planned assassination of him, then he must have had agents in Cuba. If not, then he must have learned about it through his state-side sources which seems like a longshot.

Perhaps, Oli. But he also could have figured it out with simple logic: Roth tried to have him killed in Tahoe; Roth brought him to Cuba to get the $2 million; Roth was tight with Batista and his thugs; Roth arranged for him to be driven back to his hotel "for my safety"...

Of course, that prompts the question: why would he go to Cuba in the first place, or why would he go there with just Buschetta, or why wouldn't he hightail it out of Cuba once he had done all he came to do?

Good question. I think mike was obsessed with finding out who the "traitor" was in his family even more than taking care of roth.

Michael went to Cuba to find out who the traitor was in his family--an understandable desire since he could not be certain that the traitor was not back at Tahoe, a menace to him and his family. He also came to Cuba to flummox Roth into believing that he didn't blame Roth for the Tahoe shooting. He brought only Buscetta with him because he could not entirely trust Rocco or Neri until he found out who the traitor was--and he needed to signal to Roth that he was still in the dark about the traitor. And, he got out via prearranged private plane as soon as he thought Roth was dead.