After watching the The Godfather again on AMC last night, I thought about a question that may or may not have been previously asked on the BB. Shortly after Santino was killed on the causeway, the attempt on Michael's life was put in motion. So, what if Michael was blown up in the car instead of Appolonia? Obviously, the Corleone Family would have been weakened losing Santino & Michael within a very short period of time. How would the sequence of events following these murders be altered? I thought of a few scenarios but I have to keep in mind that Michael's involvement in family "business" was next to nothing until the Sollozzo & McCluskey murders. If this was previously discussed, I apologize but I am interested in your thoughts.

I don't recall whether or not this question was raised previously, but it's an interesting one:

One possibility is that Vito, heartbroken over the quick loss of two sons, would simply have thrown in the towel, as Michael did at the end of III. That would leave it to Clemenza and Tessio. Tom probably would advise a deal on drugs, and (shudder) that Clem and Tess become caporegimes under Barzini. Fredo would stay in Nevada. Clem and Tess eouldn't buy it, and the Five Families war probably would continue. The other families would move in for the kill. The Corleones would be wiped out, including Vito.

Another possibility is that Vito would do exactly what he did in the film and the novel: call a meeting and pretend to capitulate in order to buy time to regroup. He'd still have the police/political contacts that the other families needed, and they'd go along. Then the challenge for Vito would be to find a successor. I have no idea who--cprobably not Fredo.

I tend to agree with your latter scenario because the family structure and assets were largely still inplace. But while I think that Vito was given to pathos at times, he was always poised to defend his family against outsiders.

One would think that any future success of the family would have had Clemenza or Tessio having an increased role while Vito was recovering? Maybe putting Fredo as Don in name only and having Clem, Tess, Tom & Vito pulling the strings? Until Vito was healthy enough to step back in?

Vito was recovered enough just prior to the Don's meeting. As my timeline illustartes, Vito rose from his sickbed during the summer following Santino's death. That would be a good six months after he was shot. While not in pre-shooting shape, he was recoverd enough to exercise command of the family.

Just a guess, of course, but I'm thinking that Vito would pull back (perhaps to something like a Roth role) and leave real leadership to Clemenza and Tessio. I assume they would join in the drugs operation, and perhaps form their own families. The other families would forego war for a time so that everyone could earn. In time, you'd end up with Barzini and the Six Dwarves, and some young guy would be scheming to knock Barzini off the top.

But for the Corleone crime family at that stage losing Michael would have been insignificant. He was still a civilian.

"I thought of a few scenarios but I have to keep in mind that Michael's involvement in family "business" was next to nothing until the Sollozzo & McCluskey murders."

Right, Sonny - I did put that as a disclaimer in my original post. I am curious as to what the family do when Fredo is the the last and only surviving heir apparent. Going into the drug business whether he wanted to or not would have been Vito's only chance to survive - no matter who was leading the family.

Interesting topic.

I think the Corleones would have been in big trouble. Vito did not seem to have the energy to shepherd his Family through a war, and he would not have had a viable successor.

I think Barzini would have tried again to assassinate Vito. With Tessio's help (I think Tessio would turn if Vito was weakened and there was no Michael.) he may have succeeded. Then he would appoint Tessio the head of the Corleone Family, which would lead to some bloodshed from the Clemenza faction, which would only end up weakening the Corleones and helping Barzini solidify control of the drug trade and the top spot in the Five Families.

In the end, I think the Family would be consumed by the Barzini Family.

This seems to be the most common opinion - I can't disagree.

It wasn't insignificant and Mike was no longer a civilian (by virtue of the hits on Sollozzo and McCluskey). It's evident that Barzini thought so too or else he wouldn't have tried to kill Mike one more time (when Appolonia was killed).

Barzini was obviously clever enough by being aware that Michael was a smart kid and forseeing the near future, so he decided to take precautions. But besides murdering Sollozzo, Michael was in no way a leading figure yet and therefore still disposable for the organization.

Mark, I apologize. I read your post to quick and responded.

No worries - I'm excited to see all the replies and opinions from the thread! Thanks! It really seems that Barzini and his fellow conspirators knew they had to take Michael out of the picture entirely. Even though it wasn't yet proven that Michael killed Sollozzo & McCluskey, Barzini acted on the premise that eventually somebody in the Corleone Family would be looking to avenge the hit on Vito... no loose ends. I would also assume that Barzini would have eventually killed Fredo and possibly Tom one day.

There's nothing in the novel or film to indicate that Barzini went after Michael in Sicily for any reason other than revenge or to eliminate a possible future assassin such as Don Cicci attempted to do to Vito. But I seriously doubt that Barzini was prescient enough to see Michael as other than a possible quite ordinary future Corleone don or someone who Corleone adherents might rally around. To paraphrase what I posted above, I think that ya'll are underestimating Vito capabilities at this point in his life. Vito certainly knew that Michael could be murdered in Sicily; Vito was prepared for anything.

I have to agree with that, oli. It's just that in the movie, they show Vito so beaten and dejected after Sonny was killed. Then you see him in the hotel commission meeting and he does look like he could launch and sustain a war against anybody. Great points one and all.

Vito told Tom to organize the meeting of the five families before there was an attempt on Michael's life. Michael dead or alive didn't really change Barzini's position. The question is: Would Vito give the same promise ("I will not the one to break the peace.") when he didn't have somebody to do it for him. Maybe he would have made Tom the front man and still pull the strings. He still had the capos and he had Rocco. Vito was the one to recruit Neri. So he had the muscle and he had the brain. But with Michael gone, would he have had the heart, when there was no heir of the empire? Did he love Tom enough? Would he trust Fredo? He definitely didn't trust Carlo, so he couldn't rely on Connie.
So maybe he really would have thrown the towel, sold his shares and live the rest of his life in dark peace.

Do you think that maybe a couple of years into the drug trade that Vito could have eventually used his contacts in the judicial and legal system to take out Barzini? Getting Barzini to take the fall for drugs and going to jail for the rest of his life would not be "breaking the peace" would it? It would also put Vito back on top of the commission?

I doubt that Vito could have gone that route without implicating himself.

As someone has pointed out, without Michael or Sonny in the mix, Vito's options would be limited. However, what those options would have been limited to is doing what Vito had been doing for decades: running the Corleone family. While Sonny had been useful to Vito, he was not a foundation stone on which the Corleone family was built. On the other hand, Tessio and Clemenza were such stones. With Michael dead, there's no machinations that result in Tessio's betrayal (at least not for the reasons expressed in the film). Vito would have run his family until he died or did retire. That's to be expected. His retirement might have been prompted by his emotional denouement or his lack of drive to continue along the criminal path. Of course, it's always possible that he could have been murdered even by a family member.