An exchange with Olivant in another thread caused me to re-think the key scene between Tom and Sonny after Vito was shot. After Sonny asked Tom what to do if Vito died, he replied:

"If we lose the old man, we lose our political contacts and half our strength. The other New York Families might wind up supporting Sollozzo just to avoid a long -- destructive war. This is almost 1946….nobody wants bloodshed anymore. If your father dies, you make the deal, Sonny."

Unless this is an example of bad writing (always a possibility with Puzo), I assume Tom meant that “we lose all our political contacts” and the loss of those contacts would constitute the loss of half of the family’s strength. Sollozzo wanted Vito’s political contacts. If Vito died, what deal could Sonny make with Sol? What could Sol want, and what could Sonny offer, if the Corleones lost their political contacts? Even Michael, who’d had no involvement in the family business previously, saw that Sol was just trying to buy time for another shot at Vito.

What’s more, in giving Sonny that advice, Tom was playing to Sonny’s weakness (diplomacy and negotiation), not his strength (wartime generalship). Had Sonny not avenged his father and accepted some “deal” from Sol in compensation for killing his father, he would have lost tremendous face with Tessio and Clemenza, with the Corleone rank and file, and with the other families. The other families might support Sol to avoid a long, destructive war? The other half of the Corleones’ power was in muscle—deterrent if you prefer. The only way to make that power credible was to threaten war unless Sol was turned over, as Sonny threatened. Settling with Sol to avoid a war would have neutralized what remained of the Corleones' strength.

This is another example of why Tom wasn’t a wartime consigliere. Vito sent him to law school probably with an eye toward the day when the Corleones would be “legitimate” and, as some here believe, as a brake on Sonny’s impetuousness. But lawyers are trained to compromise and negotiate. They only get into the equivalent of war when negotiation fails, and cases go to trial. In-house lawyers seldom try cases--they hire outside firms that specialize in litigation. I'll bet Tom never tried a case because Vito would want him to keep a low profile--the better to help with delicate political, behind-the-scenes negotiation.

That characteristic has a bearing on Olivant’s oft-repeated question: If Sol needed Vito’s political contacts, and killing Vito would make his political contacts disappear, why kill Vito? I believe that Sol figured that since Vito wouldn’t rent him his political contacts, why not cut them loose by killing Vito? At least some of them still would have mortgages to pay, and kids to put through college. They could be picked up by his patrons, Barzini and Tattaglia. Killing Vito would gravely weaken the former Numero Uno family, and by extension strengthen his patrons. Most important: Sol (as he told Michael) was a man who “respects himself.” While he might have been able to do some business without the politicians, he could not accept Vito’s no and keep his self-respect, and his credibility with the other Dons—he’d be just another small-time crook. By killing Vito, he’d have risked something the other Dons wouldn’t have tried on their own. He would have gained tremendous respect, and have made himself a pezzanovante, a force to be reckoned with in the NYC Mafia world.

That’s what Tom didn’t understand when he advised Sonny to “make the deal.”

Tom's only flaw was that he was "not Sicilian".

It's possible that the reason Vito was hit was to FORCE Sonny to go in on the the deal instead of retaliating, which would be his (and Luca's) natural response (as Solozzo admits) and then there's the next war. By peacefully going in on the drugs deal even after Vito's death and the Family's loss of political strength, the Corleones are still in business but greatly weakened and Barzini is on top.

That is probably what Barzini/Tattaglia/Solozzo were hoping for...but of course did not count on Vito surviving those shots.

It makes sense that Tom would make that suggestion...after all, it wasn't until that second failed attempt at the hospital that even Michael knew they were going to come at Vito again.

I agree. I don't think its so much that Tom wasn't a wartime consigliere, I think it was more that Sonny just didn't have the tactfulness and quiet ferocity and yet gentle dipomacy that his father had. After all, it was Sonny that shot off his mouth at the meeting, not Tom. How is Tom a bad consigliere when Sonny does irrational things?

Plus, we never see Don Corleone giving Sonny tutelage. We see the Don and Michael after Michael takes over towards the end of GF1, and that's it. So maybe the Don and Sonny never had "the talk" as to how to be a Don,hence Sonny's distraught behavior.

I would assume the Don had given "the talk" to Sonny but what good is it when he doesn't seem to take the advice?

As for the topic on hand, I agree with everyone so far but I would frame it this way: If they had made the deal, Sonny without much leverage would have had to surrender much of the Family's assets, turf, and power. Aside from the immediate consequences, he possibly would have lost confidence not just from his underlings, but from family allies as well. Who wants to sink with the Titanic?

But here's a thought: What if Sollozzo purposely set this "deal" into being intentionally too costly that Sonny would have no choice but to reject it, so to force a war upon a family that had little hope of winning if the other families do gang up to avoid a long war, but also to grab a piece when they can.

I mean why bargain for crumbs when you can have the whole cookie jar?

Interesting scenario, RR. But I think Sol genuinely didn't want a war. I think the reason he got Barzini's and Tattaglia's assent to try to kill Vito was that he convinced them that there'd be no war--because Sonny was hot for his deal and Tom knew it was the right thing to do. That way, he'd only have to split his drugs profits with Barz and Tatt. But, once war broke out, he needed the support of the other families, and he probably had to promise to give them a cut of his profits in order to gain their support.

There are so many things to be considered in this discussion. Sollozzo wanted money, Tattaglia wanted respect, and Barzini wanted power. Sonny wanted his own operation. Vito wanted to preserve what he had. Tom wanted to serve Vito. For me, it still comes back to what Sollozzo wanted from Vito: his political and legal connections. So, why would Sollozzo want to murder Vito? Sonny being hot for his deal on drugs? The novel makes it clear that it was Vito's personal relationship with politicians and judges that made possible the favors and protection he received from them. Without Vito, those relationships vanish.

So, we have to look elsewhere for an explanation. TB and others opine that the attempted murder was incipient with Barzini and/or Tattaglia and their motivations. It appears that it has to be that. Sollozzo's murdering the golden goose makes no sense; it all comes back to Barzini.

Sollozo had a foolproof plan.
Kill Luca.
Execute Don, kidnap Tom simultaneously.Get permission from other families beforehand.

Get police captain to pull Don's security at the hospital and plan another hit.

The Don surviving the hit..and Mike ACTUALLY shooting Sollozo and a police captain were actually impossible to predict or factor.



If you read the account of the meeting again, even Tom noted that Sollozo radiated power and force..."even more than Don Vito"

In fact..for some reason..Sollozo's play reminds me of the decision that young Vito made to NOT pay Fannuci.

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The Don himself, in Sonny's shoes with the situation being what it was might have taken the same deal. In fact, with Sonny dead and Mike on the lam, he in fact did take the deal, more or less.

Yes, and Puzo made a big point about that. In the novel, after Tom returns from his meeting with Woltz, the Don asks him, "Does this man have balls?" Tom takes that to mean, would he risk everything on a matter of principle, for honor, for revengs? Tom replies, "You're asking me if he's a Sicilian. The answer is no." After the drugs meeting, as you point out, the Don asks Tom, "What did you think of that man?" "He's a Sicilian," Tom replies.

So, if Tom sussed out Sollozzo as a Sicilian, willing to risk all on a matter of honor, revenge, etc., why didn't he figure Sol would try to kill the Don?

Because despite Tom's status as honorary Sicilian and Corleone son he hadn't come up on the street side of things and didn't quite have those instincts. Also he really did place a high value on rationality and it was not rational for a small time hoodlum to try to take out the most powerful boss in the nation and start a war. Tom's rational nature-his overly rational nature- wasn't completely his "fault". He was trained in that by Vito. Also one can argue that the Brothers Corleone were a Four Temperament Ensemble. Tom is Phlegmatic. Always has been, always will be.

On what basis would Tom or anyone figure that Sollozzo would attempt Vito's murder? Certainly Vito didn't. If Vito didn't anticipate it (other than the relatively anemic "I'm a little worried about this Sollozzo fella."), why would Tom or anyone else?

Luca Brasi is what made any attack on the Don's empire seem implausible.

Tom ,not being aware of the Don's special instructions to Luca, had no reason to think that Luca was vulnerable. Therefore, he knew that Luca would kill ANYBODY who dared to pose an actual threat to the Don. And he knew that anybody in the underworld who entertained such thoughts, knew of and feared Luca.

Tom isn't a wartime consigliere because he failed to see the play the Turk was making during the failed drug deal offer meeting. Geno would had quietly had more guys guarding the Don immediately after seeing Sonny's outburst at the meeting, because he shown a weakness in the Corleone's armor (greed) and knew that they would make a play to Sonny to by either trying to get him to killed his dad, or have somebody take out Vito and Sonny (hence Geno probably would had upped the security on both to make sure nobody got through.) Also Geno would had admonish Sonny for leaving the compound during the war just to get at Carlo (because he knew the other would had use real family as a weakness --- just look at Luke in Cloud City, in Empire Strikes Back as an analogy for going back too soon) ......

In the novel, Tom flat-out admits to himself (after Sonny's murder) that "he knew now that he was no wartime consigliere...old Genco would have smelled a rat."

TB, I've never bought the soundness of Tom's lament. As the novel makes pretty clear, the families didn't fake out the Corleones; they were beaten into submission by Sonny. It states that they decided to eliminate Sonny only because it was the only way they could "stave off complete defeat." So the lessening of their retaliatory blows was due to their inability to strike back.

Everytime I read this, I wonder why a "smart and cunning" man like Vito himself would have needed a consigliere to make him realize this? Why couldn't he have found this out himself?

Sure, he was slipping. But he was still smart enough to warn Mike that the traitor in the family would be the one trying to arrange the meeting with Barzini....

As Vito himself said, "Women and children can afford to be careless. But not men." That's part of a major subtheme in the Trilogy: mistakes and misjudgments are deadly.

For all their smart and cunning a boss need a consigliere to keep their ego in check....and makes sure they explain every single option and even argue for the case not to do that option that the boss picks...if any of you ever watch "The West Wing" ...Leo (The Chief of Staff) is similiar to that position, and he brought down Barrett to size quite often because he was that trusted by him and many times shot down the prez's original decision in terms of a better one.

Hardly the actions of a "bad don"