After Frank Pentangeli finishes his rant about the Rosato Brothers and storms out of the room, Neri asks Michael if he should let him go back to New York. I always took this as Neri's was of asking whether Michael was considering getting rid of Pentangeli. Michael resopnds by saying to let him go, that he's an old man who had too much wine, and then he adds "I've already made my plans." Since Michael's overarching desire that Pentangeli make peace with the Rosatos was to give Roth the appearance that they were working together, his statement about having already made his plans tells me that Michael was already suspicious of Roth and that perhaps he was already thinking about finding a way to take him out. If that's the case the suspicions were probably confirmed by the attempted hit followed by the train ride to Miami where Michael misled Roth into believing he thought Pentangeli had arranged the hit. The theory that Michael supected Roth from the beginning is then bolstered by his appearance at Frankie's house where he explains that it was Roth who tried to have him killed. After all, nothing happened between the time of the hit and the meeting with PEntangeli that would give Michael extra evidence that it was anyone but Roth.

If that's the case, Michael certainly doesn't share this with Tom when he makes him "the Don," and gives him all this crap about how he trust him etc. Of course Michael knew there was a traitor inside the family, and perhaps he wanted Tom to ferret him out, but had he told Tom he suspected Roth perhaps Tom would have been more vigilant about the issues for which he gets blamed all the time, namely not knowing they had Pentangeli alive and not knowing that Queastadt belonged to Roth. My poin is that once again Michael's hubris and secretiveness did him in more than Tom's negligence.

Of course when the committee set the perjury trap Tom gets blamed but it was really Michael's fault all along.

Very interesting theory, dt! But I'd like to offer these rejoinders:



What Neri actually said was, "You want him to leave?" It's a vague statement, but I took it to mean that Neri was asking if he should give him the bum's rush right there and then. I don't think it meant that Neri was to whack Frankie. "I've already made my plans" meant, IMO, that Michael had planned to give the disputed territories to the Rosato brothers. Reason: I believe Michael was still intent on making a deal with Roth at that point. As I posted in another thread, Michael probably figured Roth would never willingly agree to cede his Cuban empire to him. But Michael's plan was to wangle an invitation to Cuba to meet Batista and get his blessing--after which Michael would be free to whack Roth. So, at that point in the boathouse scene, Michael was still wangling for a deal. And he never suspected that Roth would mount the machine gun attack.


If you agree that Michael never thought Roth would willingly give up his Cuban empire, then he would have figured, immediately after the attack, that Roth was behind it. The only surprise to him was that Roth would attempt to kill him in such a reckless, ruthless way.


No more wretched example of Michael's manipulativeness exists. Bastard!


Much as I admire Tom for his loyalty and sympathize with him for his mistreatment at Michael's hands, that's one I blame on him. "Our people with the NYC detectives say he [Frankie] was half dead, talking out loud about how you betrayed him..." DUH-H-H, Tom: How come "your people with the NYC detectives" didn't let you know that Frankie had survived? And why didn't you check in any event before advising your one and only client to commit five counts of perjury?

I agree that neri was just finding out from mike if indeed he wanted Frankie to leave now. Nothing more. I'm not sure sure about the "plans" statement by Mike. It is reasonable to think that Mike had an overall startegy, that he wanted Frankie's participation in it, but that frankie's participation wasn't absolutely necessary. Mike could always get rid of Pentangeli if push came to shove. When he blows up at Frankie's house, I think that, yes, it was an emotional reaction to what he believed was Roth's audacity and recklessness by endangering his family with the hit attempt.

Yes, that was part of it. But another part was to play Frankie like a violin and get him to put his head in the lion's mouth, so to speak. Frankie knew what happened at Tahoe, and Michael's surprise visit scared the s**t out of him: "I didn't want you to know I was coming." The outburst came before Michael said, "It was Roth," scaring Frankie further. So when Michael did say, "It was Roth," Frankie was so relieved that he practically passed out from gratitude. "I want you to help me take my revenge," Michael assures him. "Michael, anything..." Frankie sighs. "Settle these problems with the Rosatos." Brilliant!

Michael probably thought Roth would use a more bureaucratic and statesman like approach in defending his empire than attempting to riddle his bedroom with bullets. After all, Roth is not known for using "muscle" in matters of dispute, Stupid -- people behaving like that with guns.

But, I'm somewhat of the mode of thought that says the ego maniacal Michael probably assumed that Roth would yield to Michael's pursuit of his empire. I'm just not sure there's anything in the movie to necessarily suggest that Michael didn't think Roth would cede his Havana holdings.

True enough--you can never underestimate Michael's ego, his need to control, and the wrong assumptions they led him to. But...

I said that Michael knew Roth would never willingly yield his Cuban empire. But he probably misled himself into thinking that he could win a waiting game. Because Roth was old and sick, Michael could either wear him down and make him give up (by gobbling up his US holdings starting with Moe Green's hotel and extending to moving Klingman out); or waiting until he died, clearing the coast for Michael to step into a Cuban vacuum.

What Michael didn't count on was that Roth, too, was playing a waiting game: waiting for an opportunity to kill Michael. That opportunity presented itself at Anthony's party. Roth knew Pentangeli would be there, contentious over Michael's favoring of the Rosato brothers and Roth. So, Frankie would have a credible motivation for killing Michael--and would make a perfect patsy for the shooting. Michael never envisioned that Roth would get Fredo to betray him--or that Roth would be so ruthless as to mount a machine gun attack on him in his bedroom, and have the gunmen killed.

If Michael underestimated, or overlooked Roth's intentions, then Vito is culpable as well, right? Michael's encroachment on Roth's empire began with his visit to Moe Green in Part I. Vito was still alive, advising Michael, and according to the novella; instructed Tom to visit Vegas and explore the Corleone's possibilities in the Gambling Industry.

We know the Don was slippin, yes, but my question is this: wouldn't he still be able to anticipate Roth's counter-offensive against Michael? Vito was a mentor to Roth and knew him his entire life. Didn't he know that Roth had been dying of the same heart attack for the last 20 yrs? In not, than wouldn't he be privy to the fact that Roth has designs on living forever and had no intentions of standing by idly, watching the Corleones kill his best friend and swoop up his major U.S assets. And Roth certainly didn't stand by idly. If GF II is intended to be in sync with part I, then it makes good sense to think that Roth and Green had already started working on Fredo in part I.

Arguably, yes. And he may have so advised Michael. In fact, Vito may even have had a pact with Roth: each would stay out of the other's gambling territory. But, as the novel points out, Michael was determined at that point to do things his way. Later, while planning for the Great Massacre of 1955, Michael told Vito that if he attempted to interfere, Michael would split. The Great Massacre itself was Michael's idea: Vito had given his pledge not to be "the one who breaks the peace," but Michael didn't regard it as binding on him.


Quite a few people here agree. There's no doubt that Fredo taking Moe's side was a harbinger of treachery to come. How come Michael didn't see that? Maybe he was slippin'?

No, Michael's "encroachment" on Roth's Vegas empire did not begn when Michael visited Moe in GFI. As Michael states in his confrontation with Moe, "the Corleone family bankrolled your casino." The novel goes further and says that the Corleones also gave Moe money to finish furnishing his hotel and had friends who were financing three of new hotels going up. So, the Corleones were involved long before Michael's trip out there. Also, there's nothing in the novel or film about Roth and nothing in GFII to indicate Roth's involvement in Vegas that I remember.

I agree that Michael understood that Roth would never cede his Havana operations to him, and I believe he saw through Roth's charade about Michael being his heir all along. As for the theiry that Michael was trying to wangle an invitation to Cuba to meet Batista and get his blessing leaves out the fact that even before the hit on him in Tahoe Michael wa aware of the deal that was to go down in Cuba. When Michael visits Roth after the hit Roth tells Michael what they are about to do will "make history." This means Michael knew very well that the mob was going into business with the Batista government and that their finances and gambling operations could now be run offshore without the FBI and US Authorities to worry about. I agree with the post in this thread that says Fredo's misplaced loyalty to Moe Green was a harbinger of things to come. While it is true the Corleones bankrolled Moe's casino, if we can draw a parallel from real life this is similar to what happened to Bugsy Siegel, who the Moe Green character is based on. Siegel, with the blesing of M. Lansky (Hyman Roth) raised money for the Flamingo but never made a return, was accused of skimming and got rubbed out. In the Godfather there is an allusion to this when Michael tells Moe his casino loses money, and Moe defensively asks if Michael thinks he is skimming and Michael sarcastically says that he is just "unlucky." Michael thinks he is holding a trump card by condemming Moe for slaping his brother around, but when Moe tells him it is because Fredo was banging cocktail waitresses two at a time, Michael undertands that Moe's treatment of Fredo is "business, not personal," and in effect he loses the argument, regroups, and tells Moe to think about a price. During that scene not only does Fredo go through the ridiculous "Moe and me are good friends" routine, he also trie to get Tom to overrule Michael. Once Moe sees that Tom is not going to interfere, he leaves the room. Thereafter Michael's warning to Fredo not to ever take sides with anyone against the family again, it is made as a threat, whether Fredo realizes it or not. Compare, e.g. that admonition to the one Vito gives Santino about telling people outide the family what he is thinking. Sure, Vito is angry, but he is not threatening Santino, he is scolding him. The way Michael emphasizes the word "ever" the second time he uses it makes it clear that he has no use for Fredo if he is going to interfere with his plans. There's no question Moe and Johnny Ola, had begun to work on Fredo already. As I have posted elsewhere, it is virtually imposible to believe that while he was in Vegas Fredo did not meet Johnny Ola, and I can easily see them planting the seeds in Fredo's head that he had been sidelined by Santino during the War, and then passed over by Michael afterwords. At that point their aims were to form an alliance with Barzini and wipe out the Corleones, but Michael beat them to the punch and engineered the massacre of 1955. No wonder Moe made no inquiries. They didn't have the muscle to do squat. So instead, Moe waits, and when the opportunity to create this consortium in Havana comes along, he invites Michael in albeit with the condition that he ponies up $2 million. Whether Michael immediately sees through this or not is unclear, but we do know that before the hit he insists that Pentangeli not do anything to upset the Rosatos. Pentangeli already doesn't trust Roth and he tells Michael that Vito never trusted him either. Michael is not naive, and I believe by that point he supected Roth was luring him to Havana to get the 2 million and then kill him. I also believe Michael's plan to kill Roth in Havana is what he meant by saying "I've already made my plans." What Micheal did not expect was the audacity of the attempted hit, however if you look at it, Ola and "his men" happen to arrive at the Communion party, and by then they already have Fredo in their pocket. Their plan is to get Fredo to open the drapes and take a shot at Michael in hopes that he is mislead into believing that Pentangeli did it.

Michael sees through this, and inexplicably goes to Roth to ask him for permission to kill Pentangeli. Why would he do this? He would not need Roth's permission to kill a member of his own family, and he would know that Pentangeli's demise would serve the interests of the Rosatos and Roth in any case. No, Michael did this to make Roth think he had taken the bait and believed Pentangeli stupidly tried to kill him. Roth thanks Michael, but when he learns that Michael has ordered Pentangeli to make the deal with the Rosatos he smells a rat. This is why he has Ola make the famous "wrong number" call to Fredo in the middle of the night to try to find out if this is on the level or not.

By the time Michael reaches Havana, the way he and Roth circle each other....something that has been written about extensively on these boards is in full swing.

IMHO the seeds of this were indeed planted in the first Godfather (or at least when they wrote GFII they saw how they were inadvertantly planted). So getting back to my original thesis, I believe Michael immediately susected Roth of engineering the attempted hit, but did not disclose this to Tom, who was focused on finding the traitor in the family.

I meant, literally, that Michael's first encroachment on Vegas was his visit to Moe. His personal involvement is the key to what happens later. Of course the Corleones were involved in Vegas long before Michael's visit to Moe. And that involvement started well before Michael got involved with the family business. Sonny arranged for Fredo to go to Vegas and recover from his nervous breakdown without any involvement from Michael (or Vito, for that matter). He was clearly calling in a chit that Moe owed the Corleones for bankrolling the hotel and for helping furnish it. Michael says so, flat out.

While Vito was obviously looking at future investment possibilities (he didn't give Moe all that support because he liked him), it was Michael who tried to move Moe out, and had him killed when he didn't. And while Roth didn't appear in either the novel or in GFI, the fact that Roth linked himself to Moe and Moe's murder in his famous soliloquey makes me believe it's legitimate to think that Roth was involved with Moe in the hotel that Michael wanted in GFI.

I agree.

Of course it's 20 / 20 hindsight, but now having BOTH GFI and GFII together in the OVERALL picture, it is not unreasonable to piece together the theory that Roth was involved with Moe in regards to Las Vegas. All FFC did was expand on the Roth character when making GFII, on the basis of the Moe and Roth relationship being based on the real life Lansky / Seigel relationship.

There was this kid I grew up with -- he was younger than me. Sorta looked up to me -- you know. We did our first work together -- worked our way out of the street. Things were good, we made the most of it. During Prohibition...As much as anyone, I loved him -- and trusted him. Later on he had an idea -- to build a city out of a desert stop-over for GI's on the way to the West Coast. That kid's name was Moe Green -- and the city he invented was Las Vegas.

One thing that is not addressed in II is that Roth, without troops, would have had to have the backing of at least one family. I'm not sure that Ola filled that role.

Your comment raises an interesting point:
Roth, like the real-life Lansky, didn't need his own organization because "he always made money for his partners." As long as he did, his partners provided the muscle and protection. Just as Roth had Johnny Ola, Lansky had Vincent (Jimmy Blue Eyes) Alo as a sidekick (name is an anagram), except that Jimmy Blue Eyes was more of a partner and protector: with his presence, local organized crime types and uninformed thugs would know Lansky was connected.

But, I inferred that Roth was planning a major expansion of his role. His favoring of the Rosato brothers set up Pentangeli's conflict with Michael. And his corruption of Fredo put a potentially huge fissure in the Corleone family. Had the Tahoe shooting succeeded, the Rosatos would have taken over the Corleone rackets in NYC. They'd be beholden to Roth, and he might have been the de facto Don. Fredo would forever have his gonads in Roth's pocket. If he cooperated, Roth would have been back in the saddle in Nevada, and Cuba would have been off-limits. If Tom, Rocco or Neri objected and an internal war broke out, so much the better for Roth: he'd pick up the pieces because, as a legitimate and long term Nevada gaming operator, the Gaming Commission (and its eminence gris Geary) would have discovered--horror of horrors!--that the Corleones were criminals. Of course, criminals can't own gaming licenses...

Yes, but Ola was not a Don, right? And the Rosato brothers were just a faction of a family (Gallo brothers). So, the NY families, not to mention Chicago, just stand by and let Roth take over?

It was Roth's intention at that point to have the Rosatos kill Frankie, then Roth would have Michael killed in Cuba shortly afterward. Thus Michael would not be able to name a successor to Frankie; or, if he did, to back him up. And with Fredo in Roth's pocket, who but the Rosatos would take over in NYC?

Of course Roth could never be the de jure Don of any Mafia family, but he could have been the power behind the Rosatos' throne--a big expansion of his previous role. But, even if he didn't take an active role in the NYC "olive oil business," he'd have erased a Corleone stronghold and a potential source of opposition.

Roth had no interest in titles. For all he cared his wife could be named "The Don." Roth cared about money and power, and was perfectly happy to fly below the radar while others worried about "respect and honor."

EXACTLY like Lansky.

I just don't think it's realistic for Roth to have engaged in such machinations without the backing of at least one of the NY families. Ola and the Rosatos didn't have the gravitas to fill that role.

Of course they didn't but Roth's reach was everywhere. He could contract muscle from just about anyone.

It's not just muscle. His hitting Mike would be just as major a stroke in the underworld as Sollozzo hitting Vito.