We infer from GFII that Roth had successfully conned Michael with his father/son act right until bullets started flying in Michael’s bedroom. Then, and only then, did Michael realize that Roth had been his enemy all along.

But: What if Michael knew all along that Roth was his enemy—and that Michael would have to kill him to get his Havana gaming empire? Suppose it was Michael who was conning Roth with his own son/father act?

The two supremely clever adversaries had been circling each other for years. The first business deal we saw Michael involved in after his return from Sicily was to attempt to move Moe Green, Roth’s best friend, out of his Vegas hotel—and to kill Moe when he refused. By 1958, Michael had moved his entire operation to Nevada, owned or controlled three hotels, was about to move Meyer Klingman out of another hotel that Roth partly owned, and had grand designs on Roth’s Havana holdings. So Roth had good reason to believe that there was no room for both of them in the legalized gaming business. He could not out-muscle Michael, so he was craftily buying time, waiting for an opportunity to strike.

For his part, Michael had every reason to believe that Roth was holding out on him. He had to know that Roth wouldn’t take the murder of his best friend lying down. He also had to know that Roth would want to prolong what Michael regarded as his inevitable capitulation for as long as possible. So, Michael’s meeting with Johnny Ola at Anthony’s party clearly was one of many such meetings—and hinted at protracted negotiations. And Fredo, in his boathouse confession, said that Ola told him “you were bein' tough on the negotiations. But if they could get a little help -- and close the deal fast -- it'd be good for the family.”

A question presents itself: Since Roth had no organization per se, why didn’t Michael simply whack Roth, as he had Moe Green when Moe refused to sell?

The answer is that Michael needed the blessing of Roth’s partner, Batista, the President of Cuba, before he could take over Havana gaming. What Michael was maneuvering for all along, and what Roth was holding out on, was an invitation to Havana to meet with Batista. Once Michael got in Batista’s good graces, he’d be free to whack Roth after a decent interval. Batista might resent the murder of his “old friend and associate from Flo-REED-ah,” but, as Roth might say, the murder would have “nothing to do with business.” There were still payoffs to be made from the gaming industry, and Michael would be making the payoffs to Batista. That’s what Michael was pressing for, and why Roth was stalling.

A major subtheme in the Trilogy is how adversaries underestimate each other—or as Vito put it, “…men cannot afford to be careless.” Michael may have known that Roth was his adversary, not his surrogate father, but he never thought Roth would recruit a traitor in his family and attempt to have him whacked in his own bedroom. But Roth, as the most powerful gringo in Havana, never, thought Michael would attempt to whack him in his own fiefdom using nothing more than a single bodyguard. And Roth never envisioned that the rebels would force his friend and protector Batista to flee Cuba. Then again, Michael never expected that Pentangeli had survived and was in the clutches of the Senate lawyer Questadt, nor did he figure out that Questadt belonged to Roth….

All in all, a battle of wits, maneuvers, deceit, double-crosses, lies, postures, muscle and money. Whew!! Hard to put all that on celluloid, hence ---- The Gangster BB!

Well, as Frankie said about Vito "... [he] never trusted Hyman Roth or his Sicilian messengerboy Johnny Ola." I'm sure that Vito passed along to Mike his wisdom about Roth and relationships.

You are absolutely correct TB, and here is some evidence to back it up:

1. "Keep your enemies closer" - Michael goes out of his way to get Roth's permission to move Klingman out, and Roth dispaches Johnny Ola and his men to Tahoe to give the go ahead. Michael is very solicitous of them, offering the men food, etc., and listening to Ola praise Roth as the last of the old timers, and a man who always made money for his partners. Of course Roth gave the go ahead because he thought Michael would be dead in 24 hours. After the hit, the first person he visits is Roth to ask permission to kill Pentangeli. Roth, who now thinks Michael is way off base tells him what a wise young man he is, and Michael replies by saying how much he can learn from him.

2. Corleone family scuttlebutt - The two times Michael gets skunked in arguments in the trilogy, he shuts up and changes the subject. The first was when he was trying to put pressure on Moe Green for slaping Fredo around. When Michael is told this was because Fredo was banging cocktail waitresses two at a time, he knows his point is lost and he just gets up and says that Green should think about a price. The second is during the argument with Pentangeli in Tahoe. Michael tries to convince Frankie to go along with his plans by telling him how Vito respected Roth and did business with Roth. Pentangeli trumps him by saying yes but he never "trusted" Roth. Again, Michael's point is lost and he simply lets Frankie leave. If Frankie knew Vito never trustd Roth, Michael had to know the same thing, and he also didnt trust Roth. This is proven by Michael's comment about Roth dyng of the same heart attack for 20 years. Micheal knew full well of this ruse long before the hit on him but he just played along with it.

3. Ola's Call To Fredo - Even after Michael visits Roth, the plan to kill Michael is still moving forward. Ola calls Fredo to see if Pentangeli is realy going to make the deal with the Rosatos. In other words ROth is fishing to determine the sincerity of Michael during his visit to Miami.

4. Michael's intelligence gathering. I dont know exactly how Micheal learned that the plan was to have Batista's soldiers kill Michael after the New Year's party, but learn it he did, and he had to dig pretty deep into his resources to learn that the plot to kill him was still on. Incidentally this harkens back to the insight Michael had about Sollozzo...that the key for him was to "kill pop." Likewise he got proof that the key for Roth was to kill Michael.

5. Roth's arrogance. By the time of the birthday scene Roth smells a rat. He doesn't know Michael has fgured out how he is to be assassinated, but when he takes Michael aside after Michael makes his "Castro could win" comment. He clearly expresses his displeasure and growing impatience with Michael.
Later, when Michael shows his hand by asking who ordered Pentangeli killed, Roth is furious. In the great scene in which Roth praises Moe Green he makes the point that more than anyone in his life he "loved" Moe Green, and yet he never mad inquiries because it was business, not personal. Roth knew very well who gave the order to kill Moe Green, and at the end of that speech he issues a direct threat to Michael. Either the money is on the table or he knows he doesn't have a partner. He might as well have told Michael he would rub him out.

6. Fredo's continued silence - After Michael "forgives" Fredo at Mama's funeral, Fredo stays on the compund but he keeps to himself. He never discloses that he knows Pentangeli is alive, or that the Senate lawyer is on Roth's payroll. Even when everything blows up at the committee hearing he lies to Tom Hagen and says he knows nothing, yet when Michael confronts him, he tells Michael he knows Pentangeli is alive and "they've got him" and that the Senate Lawyer belongs to Roth. I have argued this before, I think Fredo did know it was going to be a hit, and he did know Roth's motives. I think we have a consensus that Fredo opened the drapes, so he had to know. Still he continued to lie to Michael about it.
Why? I think Roth promised Fredo he would be head of the Corleone family after Michael's assassination. That was the "something in it for me." It would rectify Fredo's being passed over. And btw it is the reason Michael was right to kill him.

Excellent point, dt. The fact that Michael first said he was going to kill Pentanageli, and instead sent Frankie to make up with the Rosatos, must have set off five-alarm bells in Roth's mind.


Michael must have known at that point that Roth finally gave in and invited him to Cuba for one purpose only: to have him killed there. The offer to drive him from the Presidential palace to his hotel "for his protection" had to have been a dead giveaway (no pun intended).



One of the strengths of that all-time-great scene is that at that point both of them knew each other's plans--and still they kept duelling. Incredible!


Absolutely no doubt about that.

TB... you stated that both Roth and Michael knew each other's plans at that point during the whole Moe Green speach. I agree with you about Michael knowing then, (and don't DISagree with Roth knowing) but why do you say that Roth knows and is not just angry about the remembrance (sp?) of losing his friend and how it happened?

From Roth's viewpoint, the entire reason for his bringing Michael to Havana was to get the $2 million from him, then have him whacked. Michael strung him along--even having Fredo bring the money to Havana. But when he turned up in Roth's suite without the $2 million, Roth said, "You're pulling out?" I emphasize this because time was fleeting at that point: it was New Year's Eve and Roth had just hours before he'd have to move forward with Michael's assassination. Now Roth's fear was that not only wouldn't get the $2 million, but that Michael's appearance without the "bag full of money" meant that he'd flee before he could be "driven back to his hotel for his safety."
Keep in mind, too, that since Fredo was in Roth's pocket, and Michael had already told him (in the outdoor cafe) that "Hyman Roth will never see the New Year," Fredo may have tipped off Roth to Michael's plan even before Michael showed up in Roth's suite without the money.

Damn - #6 makes alot of sense - never put that all together - just always thought of Fredo as too dumb to be vengeful. After all these years i think i finally support Michael killing that ungrateful son of a bitch

(Still not sure about Fredo actually opening the drapes though)

The 2nd movie has so many questions without definite answers

...that's what keeps some of us here posting on and on...

Does Fredo think that admitting the following to Michael "they got Pentangili" and "Questadt belongs to Roth" THAT Michael is going down anyways and its only a matter of time before he(Fredo) is named head of the Corleone family? (well in his mind anyways)

if Fredo is "in" on alot of what Roth is up to (he knows about Questadt), then why not reveal to Roth the frameup of Geary? Certainly Roth could use that knowledge to his advantage possibly even neutralizing Mike's use of it.

It's possible he did just that. My long-held view is that Geary was part of the plot to trap Michael into five counts of perjury. If Questadt belonged to Roth, and Questadt was counsel to the Senate committee that Geary was a member of, then he could have told Geary: "Michael Corleone trapped you in that brothel murder. Here's your opportunity to catch him in a perjury trap. He doesn't know we have Pentangeli. He thinks Cicci is the only witness we have against him. So, when Cicci testifies, ask Cicci if he ever got a direct order from Michael Corleone. When he says that he didn't, Michael will be relaxed, and think he can get away with lying under oath. Then we'll drop Pentangeli on him and bada-BING! He's going away for five years on each count of perjury."

If Geary protested that Michael could retaliate with the brothel murder story, Questadt could say: "If he's convicted of perjury, he's a liar for all time. Who'd believe him if he told the brothel murder story?"

Maybe the reason Roth decided to put Questadt in his pocket is because of Geary.

I think the movie is beginning to make more sense if you put together everything that Fredo could have told Roth and correlate that to what Roth's actions are.

If it wasn't Fredo who else could it have been?

Manolo was the only one who would have been beyond suspicion.

Manolo?

The landscaper.